* M3 Strategies is a Republican pollster, but they’ve done pretty good work. The firm’s last poll had President Trump’s favorables right about where the Pritzker campaign did in its most recent release, for example. The poll was paid for by Juan Rangel, who regularly engages in battle with the CTU and the mayor’s people on Twitter.

From the pollster’s latest analysis of its Chicago survey…

1. Crime Dominates Voter Concerns

o 67% say crime is Chicago’s biggest issue, outpacing high taxes (54%) and inflation (41%).
o Issues like LGBTQ+ rights (3%) and reproductive freedoms (4%) rank among the lowest priorities.

2. Paul Vallas and Alexi Giannoulias Lead Early Mayoral Preferences

o Vallas (27.4%) and Giannoulias (21.0%) lead the crowded field, while Mayor Brandon Johnson lags at just 8.2%.

3. Brandon Johnson Is Overwhelmingly Unpopular

o 79.9% of voters disapprove of Johnson, with just 6.6% holding a favorable view—a net favorability of -73.3%.

4. Vallas and Giannoulias Have the Strongest Favorability, While Lesser-Known Candidates Struggle

o Giannoulias (49% favorable) and Vallas (41%) have the highest name recognition.
o Buckner and Conway remain relatively unknown, with over 35% of voters saying they’ve never heard of them.

* Methodology…

M3 Strategies surveyed 696 likely Chicago voters from February 20-21, 2025. The survey has a margin of error of 3.71%. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

* On to the toplines. Which of the following would you say are the biggest issues facing Chicago right now?…

Crime is a much bigger issue in Chicago than it is statewide and has been for quite a while.

* If the election for Mayor of Chicago were held today, who would most likely lean toward (if undecided is not an option)?…

* What is your opinion of the following Chicago public figures?…

* Alexi Giannoulias, IL Sec of State…

* Susana Mendoza, IL Comptroller…

* Bill Conway, Alderman…

* Kam Buckner, State Rep…

* Paul Vallas, Former Mayoral Candidate…

* Brandon Johnson, Mayor…

Whew. That’s gotta be some kind of a record.

* In your own words, tell us your opinion of Mayor Brandon Johnson…

* In your own words, tell us your opinion of former mayoral candidate Paul Vallas…

* In your own words, tell us your opinion of IL Comptroller Susana Mendoza…

* In your own words, tell us your opinion of IL Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias…

Haven’t seen those word clouds used in a while. Interesting.

…Adding… I took a quick look at the full crosstabs. Mayor Johnson’s favorable/unfavorable rating among Black voters is 16/67, with 17 percent neutral. Among Latino voters it’s 2/88 (not a typo) with 10 percent neutral. Among White voters it’s 5/84 (also not a typo) with 10 percent neutral.

Johnson receives 18 percent support from Black voters in the horse race question, along with 2 percent Latino, 6 percent White.