* Research 2000 is a decent polling outfit, but because the Democratic-biased Daily Kos site has commissioned polls from the firm, its surveys are getting short shrift. I wouldn’t be too sure about the detractors’ arguments. The polls look pretty legit to me, although there is room for argument about their “likely voter” screens. Nobody really knows yet who is going to vote and in what numbers.

Research 2000’s latest DK poll is of the Mark Kirk/Dan Seals congressional race. The methodology…

A total of 400 likely voters in the Tenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 1, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points.

That’s pretty standard stuff and the usual universe for congressional polling.

* And here’s the matchup, with Kirk’s September polling (just 300 respondents) in parentheses…

Kirk 44 (51)
Seals 38 (29)

* The head-to-head toplines….

* Kos’ conclusion…

To win, Seals must further erode Kirk’s support among Independents and even Democrats (currently at 12 percent), while getting his name ID up with his district’s electorate (29 percent don’t know him, including 32 percent of Independents).

* Meanwhile, Republican congressional candidate Aaron Schock appears to be back in the good graces of the Peoria paper. Check out this lede…

Aaron Schock is young, smart, handsome, rich and lucky.

The columnist goes on to show how Schock profited from flipping properties to public entitites and prominent local institutions like Bradley University. But, in the end, Schock gets a pass.

* Related…

* Dirty money in the 18th District? Not by Illinois standards

* Ozinga, Halvorson TV ads put to the truth test

* Kirk, Seals spar on key energy solutions

* Editorial: Re-elect Kirk

* Democrats look to hold on to Hastert’s old seat in D.C.

* Oberweis Versus Foster Debate Synopsis

* Bitterness still around but celebrities AWOL in 6th District brawl