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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally.

Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of Â±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…

In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 11/2/06, 5 days to the vote, Democrat incumbent Rod Blagojevich is re-elected, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis.

But, Blagojevich’s margin of victory could be the 8 points that SurveyUSA reports here, or could be larger, depending on other factors. First among them: support for Green Party Candidate Rich Whitney, who receives 14% of the likely vote in today’s SurveyUSA’s poll. If Whitney’s support is more of a protest by voters over how unhappy they are with having to choose between Blagojevich and Topinka, as opposed to genuine enthusiasm for Whitney and the Green Party, then some of Whitney’s support may dry up before Election Day, and that support could go elsewhere, or stay home. Already, Whitney’s support among Independent voters is down from 29% in a SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll on 10/23 to 21% today. Next: some, but not all, parts of Illinois have hotly contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives. In those Congressional Districts, turnout will be higher than it will be in non-competitive U.S. House districts in Illinois.

As SurveyUSA adjusts its turnout model to include more Likely Voters in its respondent pool, Blagojevich’s margin of victory increases, in some scenarios by quite a bit. There is no SurveyUSA scenario in which Topinka wins. In the data SurveyUSA reports here, Blagojevich gets 45%, not materially different than his support in two previous SurveyUSA polls. Topinka today is at 37%. In two previous SurveyUSA polls she had been at 39% and 34%. SurveyUSA expects Blagojevich to finish in the mid 40s, Topinka to finish in the mid 30s. SurveyUSA does not see Blagojevich breaking 50% unless the Green vote disintegrates.

I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high.

Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.

* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)

This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.

Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…

We’re expecting some new ads very soon.

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Copley treasurer: 39-33-7, 21 percent undecided

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The new Copley poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Christine Radogno by just six points, 39-33, with 7 percent for the Green Party candidate and a whopping 21 percent still undecided.

“All the polls we’ve seen have shown (Giannoulias) with a strong lead. Our internal polls had Alexi up by 12 points,” said Giannoulias spokesman Scott Burnham, adding that other recent surveys have shown the margin as high as 17.

Here are the most recent polls in the race, including the latest Copley poll:

* 39-33-7 - Copley, Oct. 30-31
* 40-23-5 - Tribune, Oct.30-31
* 44-37-1 Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 43-34-6 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 33-29 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15
* 38-26 - Copley, Sept. 19-21

There really isn’t much else in the story except the numbers in the other down-ballot races:

Incumbent Secretary of State Jesse White holds a 41-point lead over his GOP challenger, state Sen. Dan Rutherford of Chenoa. The poll showed White with 65 percent of the prospective vote, Rutherford with 24 percent and Green Party candidate Karen Young Peterson at 3 percent.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan would collect 64 percent of the vote for re-election, the poll shows, compared with 22 percent for the GOP candidate, Tazewell County Stateâ€™s Attorney Stewart Umholtz, and 4 percent for David Black of the Green Party.

Comptroller Dan Hynes leads Republican state Sen. Carole Pankau of Itasca by 23 points, according to the poll, 49 percent to 26 percent.

Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has a story on the battle entitled “Youth seems to be trumping experience in treasurer race” and the AP has a piece on Radogno’s objection to Giannoulias’ latest campaign ad.

State treasurer candidate Christine Radogno accused her opponent of running a “desperate” campaign ad that distorts the truth, but Democrat Alexi Giannoulias stood by the television commercial Wednesday.

The ad claims Radogno, a Republican state senator, voted to let utility and telephone companies raise rates. It cites as its source an Oct. 23 Chicago Sun-Times story.

But Radogno’s name appears nowhere in the article. […]

“The citation doesn’t say she voted for the raise,” said campaign spokesman Scott Burnham. “It refers to the article that says as a result of the legislature’s actions, the utility giants had the authority to increase rates.”

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Copley guv: 44-40-7

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.

“These poll results are vastly different from three public polls released this week … and our own internal polling that shows us with leads of as much as 16 points,” [Blagojevich spokesperson Sheila] Nix said in a statement.

If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls:

* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15

Among independents who have made up their minds, 41 percent prefer Topinka, 37 percent Blagojevich and 12 percent Whitney.

No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)

Voters also said the Illinois economy is in the doldrums, with 33 percent saying the economy is on the right track and 48 percent saying it is not. Less than half of those identifying themselves as Democrats (46 percent) said the economy is on the right track.

That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten.

Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor.

Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so.

SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs.

The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.

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