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New poll has “dead heat” in guv’s race

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Copley poll: 44-40-7

Sorry. I was out of the office and couldn’t link to the story.

9 percent remain undecided.

The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Other recent polls have indicated a much wider margin in favor of Blagojevich.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll of 625 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 30-31.

The poll also shows that large numbers of votes still have unfavorable opinions of both Topinka and Blagojevich, but recent stories about federal investigations into corruption in state government are taking a toll on Blagojevich’s support.

These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22.

We can pretty much bet that Blagojevich is stalled in the mid-40s, where he’s been for months. The real question has been for weeks whether voters would actually vote for a third party candidate or whether they were just temporarily parked there instead of sitting in the undecided column.

Also, there are still quite a few undecideds in this poll. Hopefully, Copley will tell us who those people are - since that would seem to be the most important part of this story.

[Let’s close comments on this. Go here for more discussion on Copley’s poll.]

  125 Comments      


Poll has statewide incumbents with huge leads, Day backs poll of 154 people

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Remember, these Richard Day poll numbers are pretty old, but I doubt it will make much difference in the blow-out down-ballot races. However, Day’s ancient numbers may very well be a lot different now in the still somewhat volatile treasurer’s race.

* SoS & Treasurer:

In the race for secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Jesse white has a commanding lead. 65 percent of likely voters polled support White. He’s well ahead of Republican Dan Rutherford who has 24 percent. Green party candidate Karen Peterson picked up 6 percent. 5 percent of voters surveyed are still undecided. […]

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is leading, but there are still a lot of voters that have to make up their minds. Giannoulias leads Christine Radogno by 9 points, 43-to-34. Green party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 6 percent. 18 percent remain undecided.

* Attorney General & Comptroller:

…Democrat Lisa Madigan gets 68 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Stewart Umholtz with 22 percent. Green party candidate David Black Is at 3 percent and 7 percent still undecided. […]

Incumbent Democrat Daniel Hynes received 59 percent, followed by Carole Pankau with 21 percent. Green party candidate Alicia Snyder was at 6 percent. Undecided– 14 percent.

* And pollster Richard Day sums it up for the Daily Herald.

“It looks like it could be a sweep,” said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “There’s no one to pull up the bottom of the ticket (for Republicans).”

That’s a reference to Judy Baar Topinka, who leads the GOP ticket this fall but whom the poll showed has had a tough time generating enthusiasm for her campaign against scandal-battered Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The statewide survey of 603 likely voters was taken Oct. 16-22 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. […]

With the poll showing wide Democratic margins, voters could be getting ready Nov. 7 to give one party control of all statewide offices, reminiscent of 1994, when then-Gov. Jim Edgar led a Republican sweep. In 2002, voters gave Democrats control of the General Assembly, governor’s mansion, Illinois Supreme Court and all statewide offices, except for treasurer.

* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald tries to explain why its Cook County Board President poll was so different from the Tribune’s poll.

* And if you think Richard Day and the media outlets should be ashamed of himself for polling only 300 Cook County residents over several days and then sitting on the results for 8 days, check this out:

Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley appears to be politically weathering last summer’s high-profile city hall hiring fraud convictions as he looks toward re-election, a Daily Herald/ABC 7 Chicago poll shows.

Daley led his most prominent potential challenger, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr., by a better than 2-to-1 margin, 65 percent to 24 percent, according to the early survey. […]

The survey of 154 likely voters was taken Oct. 16 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 8 percentage points.

Unreal.

By the way, Day used his rating method to guage voter interest in several issues.

The bitter political atmosphere is reflected in poll results that had voters say their top reason for supporting both Blagojevich and Topinka in the governor’s race, as well as Republican David McSweeney against Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th District contest, is they disliked the opponents. Additionally, Democratic Cook County Board president hopeful Todd Stroger was viewed negatively by 53 percent of those surveyed.

Voters rated “promoting ethics and honesty in government” as their top concern in the statewide survey, giving it an 8.9 on the 1-10 scale. Job creation placed second at 8.5, crime concerns came in third at 8.4, increasing school funding was fourth at 8.2, and state budget problems fifth at 8.1.

Illegal immigration scored only a 6.8 — not as strong as one might expect, given the Republican focus on the issue this year, Day said.

In the 6th Congressional District race, immigration was cited by 9 percent of those polled as their primary reason for supporting Republican Peter Roskam, who has attacked Democrat Tammy Duckworth for being too soft on the issue. And in the 8th District race, only 2 percent listed immigration as their biggest reason for backing McSweeney over Bean.

Just because a political party focuses on an issue like immigration doesn’t mean voters will necessarily care all that much.

  8 Comments      


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