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New poll has two races much closer than believed
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Constituent Dynamics has some fresh numbers for Illinois congressional races. You will recall that they already polled IL 6, 14 and 19 and came up with a few surprises. These new results are a lot different than commonly believed. Melissa Bean is thought to have a larger lead than this, and Mark Kirk is believed by nobody to be below 50. Still, we’re looking at 1,000 respondents in these (automated) phone polls. Both polls were conducted Oct. 15-16. * Bean-McSweeney, 47-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf] (They didn’t include the third candidate in the race.)
* Kirk-Seals, 46-44 - Crosstabs here [pdf]
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Rasmussen: 44-36-9
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Rasmussen did a poll last week before the Rezko indictment which found Rod Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka 49-43-3. Unlike the Tribune, which also polled pre-Rezko, Rasmussen realized that his numbers were no good and did the responsible thing by going back into the field. The new poll is up (although it’s still behind a subscriber firewall) and Blagojevich leads Topinka and Whitney 44-36-9. Five percent say “other” and 6 percent say they’re unsure. Real Clear has the guv at 45, but I have the crosstabs and it’s 44. Here’s the most interesting aspect of the poll. 24 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Blagojevich, while 22 percent said they were “certain” to vote for Topinka. Nobody said they were certain Whitney voters.
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