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Copley: 47-37-4-12 *** Updated x1 ***

Monday, Sep 25, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Not a lot of surprises in the latest Copley poll. This is essentially the same result as every other poll except that goofy Sun-Times outlier.

Blagojevich’s support was strongest in Cook County, where 63 percent of respondents said they support him. He had 40 percent support in the traditionally Republican counties surrounding Cook and 36 percent through the rest of the state.

Topinka had her strongest showing in the counties around Cook with 49 percent. About 45 percent of downstate respondents said they support her, while she is the favored candidate of only 22 percent of Cook County voters.

Blagojevich also is more popular with women voters than Topinka. Blagojevich was preferred by 49 percent of female respondents and 45 percent of males. Topinka did better with men. The poll shows 39 percent of the male respondents support Topinka versus 35 percent of females.

Respondents who described themselves as independents - 27 percent of the survey sample - split almost evenly between the two candidates, with Blagojevich getting 36 percent to Topinka’s 38 percent.

* Meanwhile, Copley found that Alexi Giannoulias led Chris Radogno 38-26 with 35 percent undecided. Lisa Madigan was ahead of alleged candidate Stu Umholtz 64-22. Jesse White led Dan Rutherford 65-25. Dan Hynes showed just the slightest bit of weakness with his 51-22 lead over Carole Pankau.

* Copley also polled on ethics.

Asked whether they felt Topinka, the Republican state treasurer, has conducted herself ethically in office, 49 percent of registered voters polled last week replied that she has, while 25 percent said she has not.

By contrast, those polled were split evenly when asked if Topinka’s opponent in the Nov. 7 election, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has been ethical - 41 percent said he has been, while another 41 percent said he has not.

The results indicate that “voters don’t have a lot of confidence in either candidate with respect to the ethical climate in Illinois,” said Robert Rich, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. […]

When asked which candidate would do a better job of improving the ethical climate in state government, 37 percent of the respondents listed Blagojevich, while 34 percent named Topinka. Six percent favored Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, while 23 percent said that none would or that they didn’t know.

* School funding.

Asked if they thought public schools in Illinois are adequately funded, 61 percent said “no,” while only 30 percent said they think schools have enough money. Another 9 percent said they were not sure. […]

The poll asked voters if they would support an increase in the income or sales tax to boost state funding for schools “if it were paired with a partial, but not dollar for dollar, reduction of property taxes . . .” Statewide, 50 percent of respondents said they would support such an increase, while 38 percent were opposed. Another 12 percent were undecided. […]

Blagojevich has proposed selling the state lottery and using the proceeds to increase education funding. The Copley poll shows only 29 percent of respondents favor that idea, while 49 percent oppose it. Another 22 percent are undecided.

Topinka’s idea to put a casino in Chicago to generate additional gambling revenue for Illinois has more support, but still not from a majority of respondents. The poll shows that 46 percent of voters favor the casino idea, 40 percent oppose it and 14 percent are undecided. In Cook County, which includes Chicago, 53 percent support the casino and 38 percent oppose it. It is the only part of the state where more than half of the respondents supported a Chicago casino.

Voters also weren’t too thrilled with the idea of expanding the number of gaming positions at existing casinos, another part of Topinka’s plan. Only 35 percent of respondents said they support the idea, while 47 percent said they oppose it.

* Copley’s poll also found that most voters say they want the governor to live in Springfield.

A combined 63 percent of the respondents answered either “very important” or “somewhat important.” A combined 36 percent said the issue was either “not too important” or “not at all important.”

For whatever reason, Copley didn’t say how many voters thought the issue was just somewhat important, which might have undercut the story. Also, the Peoria Journal-Star gets the award for goofiest headline ever with its “Most voters say governor should live” entry on Sunday.

*** UPDATE *** I meant to put this into the original post and forgot. Topinka’s campaign statement, from a press release:

“At the mid-September point, this is the closest Governor’s race since 1990. Both poll results show Judy Baar Topinka has withstood the most massive assault of negative advertising in Illinois history and remains right on Rod Blagojevich’s heels,” said Topinka spokesman John McGovern.

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