SurveyUSA has a new poll out which has Governor Rod Blagojevich leading by just six points over Judy Baar Topinka. That’s 5 points closer than she was in the last SurveyUSA poll two months ago, which is movement just outside the margin of error (± 4.3%). Apparently, the doggie ad did the trick.

In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 9/20/06, Democrat incumbent Rod Blagojevich edges Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV St. Louis. 7 weeks to the 9/20/06 election, it’s Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 39%, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney 7%. Topinka leads by 12 points among men.

Blagojevich leads by 25 points among women, a 37-point “gender gap.” Topinka leads by 3 among whites. Blagojevich leads by 75 among blacks. Blagojevich gets 83% of Democrat votes. Topinka gets 73% of Republican votes. Independents break 4:3 for Topinka. Blagojevich leads by 36 in the city of Chicago, by 11 in suburban Cook County, by 3 in the Collar Counties. Topinka leads by 14 Downstate.

A SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll released 2 months ago, which did not name the Libertarian Whitney, had Blagojevich at 45%, unchanged from today, Topinka at 34%, 5 points lower than her support today.

Of significance: in SurveyUSA’s July poll, Blagojevich led by 8 among men (he now trails by 12, a 20-point swing among men away from the Democrat); Blagojevich led by 13 among women (he now leads by 25, a 12-point swing among women toward the Democrat). The contest has become more gender polarized over the past 60 days. […]

900 Illinois adults were interviewed 9/17/09 - 9/19/09. Of them, 801 were registered to vote. Of them, 529 were judged to be “likely” voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

*** UPDATE *** Check out the crosstabs and you’ll see something interesting.

SurveyUSA has Blagojevich ahead of Topinka in Chicago and Cook County combined 54.6 to 30.5. The poll taken for the Sun-Times had Blagojevich ahead of Topinka statewide 56-26.

In Chicago only, SurveyUSA has Blagojevich up 59-23.

I’m not claiming fraud, but a closer look by the Sun-Times may be warranted.

Hypothetically, a city-only poll would explain Tony Peraica’s miserable showing against Todd Stroger in the CS-T results.

Peraica’s campaign has complained that the CS-T’s city/county results showed a 4-1 Dem to Repub ID, when it’s more like 3-1. According to Peraica’s campaign, it’s 4-1 Dem to Repub in the city.