[Bumped up for discussion purposes.]

The new Tribune poll is out. Blagojevich leads Topinka 45-33, with the Green Party’s Rich Whitney scoring 6 percentage points. 600 likely voters were survyed between Thursday and Sunday. Topinka’s first TV ads of the season went up last Wednesday.

Topinka leads slightly among independents, 36-34, Blagojevich leads among women 45-34. 40 percent of all voters view Topinka unfavorably, compared to 29 percent who view her favorably. Voters were split evenly among the two top contenders and “neither of them” when asked who would do a better job of cleaning up corruption.

A total of 56 percent of the voters surveyed also said they thought Blagojevich had not kept his 2002 campaign promise to end government corruption, while only one in five thought he had lived up to his vow. Democrats were almost equally split on the question while nearly 70 percent of independent voters thought the incumbent had failed to keep his word. […]

Blagojevich also was viewed as the more effective leader to Topinka, 43 percent to 25 percent.

The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka narrowed when voters were asked who would do a better job of handling state finances–39 percent for the Democrat and 36 percent for the Republican. Asked who was more honest and trustworthy, 33 percent said Blagojevich and 27 percent sided with Topinka.

Majorities of voters also rejected both of the major candidates’ proposals to pump more money into schools. Fifty-four percent opposed Topinka’s plan for a land-based Chicago casino and expanded gambling at current casinos to raise revenue, while 62 percent disapproved of Blagojevich’s plan to sell or lease the state lottery to private investors.

With Whitney at 6, the winner only needs 47 percent plus one vote to win.

I’m still putting this together, but you can view other recent statewide polling here.

The Rasmussen poll is still behind the firewall, but here’s an interesting story from the pollster that shows just how difficult it will be for Topinka.

The number of Americans calling themselves Republican has fallen to its lowest level in more than two-and-a-half years. Just 31.9% of American adults now say they’re affiliated with the GOP. That’s down from 37.2% in October 2004 and 34.5% at the beginning of 2006. […]

The number of Democrats has grown slightly, from 36.1% at the beginning of the year to 37.3% now.

Those who claim to be unaffiliated have increased to 30.8% this month. That’s the highest total recorded since Rasmussen Reports began releasing this data in January 2004.

Add it all together and the Democrats have their biggest net advantage—more than five percentage points—since January 2004. In the first month of 2006, the Democrats’ advantage was just 1.6 percentage points. Last month, 32.8% of adults said they were Republicans and 36.8% identified themselves as Democrats.

The results are from tracking surveys of 15,000 voters per month. The margin of error is said to be “smaller than a percentage point.”

Also, here’s are some crucial excerpts from my syndicated newspaper column, which is about the Post-Dispatch poll:

And considering that the poll found that 20 percent of blacks say they were undecided, there’s a very good chance that Blagojevich is probably at 50 precent right now anyway since almost all of those undecided black voters will end up on Blagojevich’s side (blacks are about 15 percent of the state’s population, so 20 percent undecided would be 3 percent of the total population, and 47 plus three equals 50). This tracks with a July SurveyUSA poll, which found that 25 percent of black voters were either undecided or wanting another unnamed candidate. […]

Almost a third, 29 percent, said they weren’t aware of the yearlong federal investigations into the governor’s office. That will likely change, as Topinka’s TV advertising begins in earnest.

Just 9 percent believed “corruption” was the most important issue in the race — one point ahead of “lowering gas prices” and two points ahead of “immigration.” Topinka’s ad campaign will have to change a lot of minds if she hopes to win.