The new AP-Ipsos poll has terrible news for Republicans.

More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall’s congressional elections - 19 percent. These one-time Bush voters are more likely to be female, self-described moderates, low- to middle-income and from the Northeast and Midwest. […]

In the South, Bush’s approval ratings dropped from 43 percent last month to 34 percent as the GOP advantage with Southern women disappeared.

But a GOP survey highlights some things that many media polls miss.

[A] new GOP survey shows that Republican base voters stand ready to jam the November polls to return their team to Congress. A three-page-survey memo obtained by Washington Whispers reveals that despite reports of some dissatisfaction with the economy, the war, and President Bush, 81 percent of Republican voters are “almost certain” to vote and an additional 14 percent say they are “very likely.” It goes without saying that they’ll vote Republican: By a margin of 84 percent to 6 percent, they will pull the GOP toggle switch in the voting booth. And here is something you don’t hear very often: 88 percent of Republicans approve of how the prez is handling his job. What’s it all mean? Analysts say that GOP voters are ready to dig in and play defense against the charges Democrats are tossing at Republican candidates.

The memo also helps to define what issues work for Republican candidates. The survey–officially tilted “Base Mobilization Survey Finds and Conclusions”–divided the issues into foreign and domestic. On the foreign side, it’s all terrorism and war with polling that finds GOP voters back the war, worry about Democratic attacks on the fight against terrorism, and think the Patriot Act, moves to tighten the border, and even telephone surveillance are good things. And their favorite domestic issues aren’t a surprise: They are pro-tax cuts, big on cultural values, and worried that Democrats want to put too much bureaucracy in healthcare. Another nonshocker: They don’t like the media’s war stories, thinking that they are too negative. Some 60 percent of the GOP base expresses “extremely high dissatisfaction” with the coverage of the war.

However, SurveyUSA’s latest Illinois tracker shows the president’s job performance rating is down to 68 percent approval by lllinois Republicans. 30 percent of local GOPs disapprove of his performance.

Let’s do our best to keep the comments strictly Illinois-related, shall we? Thanks.

UPDATE:Congressional Quarterly has changed its ratings on two Illinois congressional districts to reflect a “stronger Democratic breeze.”

Illinois 6
• New rating: No Clear Favorite
• Old rating: Leans Republican
This district in suburbs west of Chicago is generically Republican, but that edge certainly has narrowed because of demographic changes and the national political environment. The Democrats have a strong and attention-netting candidate in Tammy Duckworth, an injured Iraq war veteran who has matched the Republican nominee, state Sen. Peter Roskam, in overall campaign receipts ($1.9 million). Duckworth is emphasizing fiscal conservatism, including an opposition to so-called spending “earmarks,” and is promoting her support for federal funding of embryonic stem cell research. But Republican officials and Roskam’s campaign say Duckworth has not staked out clear positions on some major issues and is too closely tied to Chicago Democratic strategists who recruited her and are advising her campaign.

Illinois 10
• New rating: Republican Favored
• Old rating: Safe Republican
After a narrow open-seat win in 2000, Kirk was twice re-elected by astronomical vote margins reminiscent of his successor, Republican John Edward Porter, whose GOP centrism and political independence Kirk shares. But his district, which takes in suburbs north of Chicago, backed Kerry in 2004, when the political environment for Republicans was better. The Democrats have a credible candidate this year in Dan Seals, a marketing executive who had $508,000 banked in his campaign account as of June 30. Kirk nonetheless maintains big advantages, including his membership on the influential Appropriations Committee and his $1.9 million cash on hand.