UPDATE 2: Sabato has moved the Illinois governor’s race from “leans Democratic” to “Possible R Governor pick-up.”

UPDATE: I’ve taken the subscriber-only requirement off this item because Rasmussen Reports has now posted its results online. I’ve put additional Rasmussen analysis below this original blog post.

Rasmussen Reports has a new poll on the governor’s race. It’s still behind the subscription firewall, but I’m told the numbers are 45-37 Blagojevich/Topinka. That’s a slight improvement for Topinka from last month’s polling and zero improvement for Blagojevich.

Date… Blag. Topinka
Aug 7… 45% 37%
Jul 6….. 45% 34%
Apr 18… 38% 44%
Mar 27… 41% 43%
Feb 22… 42% 36%
Jan 25… 37% 48%

You can find some earlier poll coverage here and here.

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From Rasmussen:

The power of incumbency is not necessarily paving an easy road to re-election for Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich. The most recent Rasmussen Reports election survey of 500 likely voters in Illinois shows the governor leading State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka 45% to 37% (see crosstabs). That’s little changed from his lead of 45% to 34% in last month’s poll.

Blagojevich’s lukewarm numbers have remained largely unchanged since July’s survey. Just 48% of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of the Governor, including just 12% with a “very” favorable opinion. Twice as many, 25%, hold a “very” unfavorable opinion of the incumbent.

Normally, such results would alarm any Governor. However, Blagojovich is blessed with a challenger whose unpopularity matches his own. Only 8% of those surveyed say they have a “very” favorable opinion of Topinka while 24% report a “very” unfavorable view of the candidate. Overall, 43% of Illinois voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Topinka. […]

Taking a look at the issues of greatest importance to Illinois’ voters, the economy (37%), the war in Iraq (19%) and national security (14%) are the top three responses.