* Center Square…

A poll of Illinois residents found many think Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s progressive income tax proposal will have a negative effect on the state’s businesses, leading to layoffs or relocation in response to the higher rates.

The Illinois Business Association, a nonprofit business advocacy group, commissioned a poll by Chicago-based Ogden & Fry asking Illinois residents about how businesses will fare under Pritzker’s proposed graduated income rates, which are dependent on voters passing a ballot initiative in 2020.

Of 615 randomly sampled likely 2020 General Election voters on Nov. 15, 68 percent agreed with the statement that “Businesses will cut jobs, or relocate jobs out of state, and Illinois’ economy will suffer” under the proposed rates rather than create more jobs to grow the state’s economy.

Fifty-seven percent said they didn’t trust Illinois politicians, saying they though lawmakers would raise rates in the future beyond what was initially proposed.

Um, OK. First of all, if a pollster doesn’t disclose the percentage of landlines and mobile phone contacts, that raises a red flag, and this pollster does not do so. Robopolls can only legally contact landlines.

* Secondly, this is essentially a push poll. Here’s the setup to the first question…

Q1: Governor Pritzker has proposed a new tax increase, the Fair Tax, that changes Illinois’ flat income tax to a progressive income tax that taxes higher levels of income at higher rates. It also increases taxes on corporations and small businesses. The governor says the tax increase is needed to help stabilize Illinois’ budget and grow the state economy. Opponents of the Fair Tax say that raising taxes on the wealthy and businesses will lead to job losses, jobs moving out of state, and economic stagnation.

No indication that the tax increase would be shouldered by just three percent of individual taxpayers. Big problem.

Now, here’s the question…

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is one-hundred percent accurate?

Raising taxes on Illinois businesses is a good way to grow the state economy.

Raising taxes on Illinois businesses won’t lead to economic growth.

Um, OK.

* After two more such push questions, here’s the final question…

Q4: Over the last decade, states with progressive income tax rates have seen slower growth in jobs and wages compared to states with flat tax rates or no state income taxes. In the most recent state to switch to a progressive income tax, middle class families have seen their taxes go up thirteen percent since it was enacted and the state lost 362,000 jobs. Knowing this, do you support or oppose adopting a progressive income tax?

Support 23.3%
Oppose 62.6%
Undecided 14.0%

I’m surprised the support is as high as it is after all that.

* What this poll means is that if the opponents’ message has unfettered access to voters, their argument likely wins. But that won’t happen. The governor has almost unlimited money he can spend on his own arguments.