Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Simon Poll: Trump, tax bill dragging down suburban Republicans

Wednesday, Oct 3, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

President Donald Trump’s record in office may prove a drag on Republican candidates for state offices and for the US House of Representatives in Illinois. That is one of the findings of the latest Simon Poll® from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois Carbondale.

The results are based on live telephone interviews with 715 likely voters, a subset of 1,001 registered voters polled statewide. The margin of error for the likely voter sample is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

In addition to Trump’s effect on votes for Illinois offices, the tax reform bill passed last December by the Republican-controlled Congress is unpopular among Illinois voters, and may prove to further hinder the success of GOP Congressional candidates.

More than half (54 percent) of likely voters surveyed said “President Donald Trump’s record in office” made them less likely to vote for Republican candidates for state office in Illinois. Most of those (47 percent) said the president’s record made them much less likely to vote for Republican candidates. By contrast, just under a third (30 percent) said the president’s record made them more likely to vote for GOP candidates for state offices; about a quarter (24 percent) said his record made them much more likely to vote for Republicans.

Large majorities in Chicago (69 percent) and the collar county suburbs (59 percent) said the president’s record would make them less likely to vote for Republicans for state office, compared with about four in ten (39 percent) downstate.

Most Republican voters said the president’s record would make them more likely to support GOP candidates (76 percent), while most Democrats said his record would make them less likely (83 percent). Among Independents, about twice as many said Trump’s record would make them less likely to support GOP candidates for state offices (50 percent) than said it would make them more likely (23 percent).

“We’re not surprised that President Trump’s record is unpopular among Democrats and in urban areas,” said Charlie Leonard, a Simon Institute visiting professor and one of the supervisors of the poll. “What has to concern Republican candidates is his negative impact on votes among Independents and in the suburbs—voters the GOP needs for success statewide.”

The results were similar when interviewers asked about Trump’s record and its effect on their votes for Republican candidates for Congress: 54 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for GOP Congressional candidates, while 32 percent said the president’s record would make them more likely to do so.

Impacts were the same as those for state offices by partisan group and geography. Eight in ten (80 percent) Republicans said the president’s record would make them more likely to vote for GOP Congressional candidates, while eight in ten Democrats (84 percent) said it would make them less likely. As before, his record was twice as likely to have a negative impact than a positive impact on GOP votes for Congress among Independents (50 percent negative vs. 25 percent positive).

Most Chicago and collar county voters (69 percent and 59 percent) said Trump’s record would make them less likely to vote for Republicans in Congress. About four in ten downstate voters (39 percent) said its impact would be negative while 47% said its impact would be positive.

The tax reform bill passed last December by the Republican-controlled Congress and signed by President Trump is unpopular among Illinois voters, according to the Simon Poll. Half (54 percent) oppose it, and about a third (32 percent) support it.

Among those with an opinion on the tax bill, most (56 percent), as before, say it will make them less likely to support Republican candidates for Congress, while about a third (33 percent) say it will make them more so.

Negative electoral impacts from the tax bill were larger in Chicago (70 percent) and its suburbs (63 percent). Downstate, half (51 percent) said the tax bill would make them more likely to support Republican Congressional candidates, while about four in ten (38 percent) said it would make them less likely.

Partisan differences were predictable, with eight in ten Republicans reporting a positive electoral impact from the tax bill (83 percent), and nearly nine in ten Democrats (86 percent) reporting a negative one. Independents were more likely by 20 percentage points to report that the tax bill would make them less likely to vote for a Republican for Congress than to say it would make them more likely to do so (48 percent vs. 28 percent).

“President Trump’s record in office and the GOP tax cuts are only a net asset for Republican candidates downstate, and only the tax cuts garner a narrow majority for the Republicans there. In Illinois a least, both are unlikely to give a significant boost to Republican candidates”, said John S. Jackson, one of the co-directors of the poll.

Peter Roskam was one of the top drivers of that tax bill and nearly two-thirds of suburbanites oppose it. Oof.

47 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Oct 3, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

DCCC poll: Kelly trails Bost by a point

Tuesday, Oct 2, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the DCCC…

BRENDAN KELLY IN DEAD HEAT WITH CONGRESSMAN MIKE BOST
Democrat Brendan Kelly is within one point of two-term Congressman Mike Bost, according to the latest DCCC Analytics poll of IL-12 voters (Kelly 41%, Bost 42%, Auxier 8%, 8% undecided). Even in a two-way matchup between Kelly and Bost, Kelly is within 2 points of Bost, with Kelly at 44% and Bost at 46% (10% undecided). He leads Bost by 5 points in the St. Louis media market (Kelly 44%, Bost 39%, Auxier 8%, 9% undecided), which makes up two-thirds of the district. He also leads among women (42% to 39%, Auxier 8%), voters under 50 (49% to 37%, Auxier 5%), and college graduates (45% to 42%, Auxier 7%).

BOST’S DAMAGED IMAGE MAKES HIM VULNERABLE

Voters’ middling to negative views of Mike Bost and his performance suggest that he is highly vulnerable. Mike Bost is underwater in the St. Louis media market, despite Bost’s campaign and the Congressional Leadership Fund spending heavily on broadcast and cable here. In the St. Louis market, 37% of voters have an unfavorable view of Bost (35% favorable), 39% disapprove of how he is handling his job as congressman (34% approve), and he trails Kelly by 5 points (Kelly 44%, Bost 39%, Auxier 8%). These numbers indicate that Brendan Kelly’s aggressive advertising, which hits Bost for being a career politician who has voted to give a tax handout to his donors and to gut health care protections, has damaged Bost’s image.

The story is similar in the Paducah media market, which should be Bost’s base, where Kelly’s strategy of investing early on broadcast in this area likely helped contribute to Bost’s 32% unfavorable rating and 34% job disapproval.

In a year like this, if you’re the Republican you wanna be ahead by at least 5 points right now (although this Kavanaugh controversy could shake things up, we just don’t know yet). It’s been really ugly in that district, and I’m betting it’s gonna be a lot more so by November.

14 Comments

Poll: Illinois voters steaming mad, half considered leaving

Tuesday, Oct 2, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This poll for the Illinois AARP is of registered voters 25 or older. It was conducted July 19-30 and has a margin of error of +/-2.8 points…

Two-thirds (65%) of Illinois registered voters ages 25 and older rate their anger about Illinois’ current fiscal situation as a ‘4’ or a ‘5’ on a scale of one to five (‘5’ meaning extremely angry). While at least sixty-two percent of Republican, Democrat, and Independent voters rate their anger as a ‘4’ or a ‘5’, Republican voters are significantly more likely than Democrat voters to express these levels of anger.

Most (84%) of Illinois registered voters ages 25 and older ‘agree’ (strongly or somewhat) that the Governor and state legislature need to make addressing the state’s billions of dollars in unpaid bills,unpaid additional interest, and unfunded pension obligations a top priority in 2019. A notable two-thirds (65%) say they ‘strongly agree’. With at least 63 percent of voters across political parties, Republican, Democrat, and Independent voters alike say they ‘strongly agree’ that the state’s critical debts need to be a top priority in 2019.

Most (73%) of Illinois registered voters ages 25 and older have heard someone they know talk about leaving Illinois to live elsewhere and half (49%) have personally considered relocating. Top reasons for moving elsewhere include lower taxes, lower cost-of-living, and better run state and local government. […]

A recent statewide poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found that 84 percent of voters felt the state was off track and heading in the wrong direction. A similar sentiment emerges in this survey: nearly three-quarters of all Illinois registered voters ages 25 and older think that Illinois is off on the wrong track, and over half think the state’s economy has gotten worse since 2015. Additionally, few voters think their personal economic situation has gotten better with 78 percent saying their situation has worsened or stayed the same. […]

(M)ost (75%) Illinois registered voters ages 25 and older say they ‘strongly agree’ that the state has serious financial problems, and many are angry about the state’s current financial situation. When asked to rate their anger about this on a scale of one to five, with five being extremely angry, two-thirds (65%) ratet heir anger a ‘4’ or a ‘5’. […]

In June of this year, a bi-partisan Illinois budget agreement was signed into law. While a significant event,registered voters in the state are wary of its impact on the state’s fiscal situation. Data from this survey show that most are not confident at all (73%) that the recent budget agreement will reduce the state’s fiscal problems and most are concerned (73%) that it could negatively influence their personal economic circumstances over the next few years.

Whew.

* On to possible solutions…

Nearly six in ten (59%) Illinois registered voters ages 25 and older ‘support’ a change in the tax structure from a flat-tax structure to a graduated one as a way to help solve the state’s fiscal problems,with more Democrat than Republican or Independent voters supporting this change.

Most (70%) ‘oppose’ taxing retirement income as a way to help solve the state’s fiscal problems. While at least two-thirds of all registered voters across political parties oppose this proposal, Republican voters are significantly more likely than Democrats to ‘oppose’ applying a state income tax to all retirement income as a way to solve the state’s fiscal problems.

People just hate anything to do with messing with retirement income. It’s one reason why even Gov. Rauner opposes a constitutional amendment to change the pension language. Not enough people wouldn’t support it, he recently told Crain’s.

* On to the budget…

Data from this survey show that well over half of all registered voters think ‘Illinois needs to do both – raise revenue and make cuts’. Still, just over one in four feel the problem can only be fixed by cutting state services and programs and about one in seven feel it can only be fixed by taking in more revenue through tax increases. […]

When asked to consider seven areas where cuts could be made, voters are most opposed to cutting services in the following four areas: health care services provided at long-term care (LTC) facilities, public safety services such as fire and police protection, state mental health services and health care services provided at home and community based services (HCBS).

Still, roughly half indicate support for cuts to state services such as infrastructure/transportation services, state grants for municipalities or counties for community programs, and higher education funding. For each proposal, about one in six say they neither support or oppose.

* Revenue…

At least three in five voters oppose taxing retirement income, increasing property taxes, raising the gasoline tax, and increasing the state income tax above the current rate of 4.95 percent as ways to solve the state’s fiscal problems. Voters are somewhat divided about expanding the state sales tax to include consumer services not currently taxed such as hair salons or dry cleaning services. But, nearly three out of five Illinois registered voters indicate support for a change in the tax structure from a flat-tax structure to a graduated one, expanding legalized gambling, and increasing the income tax on annual incomes of one million dollars or more.

More at the Sun-Times.

38 Comments

Simon Poll: Pritzker leads by 22 points, Raoul up by 10, Dems more enthusiastic

Tuesday, Oct 2, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Democrat J. B. Pritzker holds a comfortable lead in the race for Governor of Illinois, with GOP incumbent Bruce Rauner and other candidates trailing. The number of undecided voters is relatively small with one month left to go in the campaign for governor. That is the major conclusion of a statewide poll of likely voters released today by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

The poll was conducted September 24-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point for the entire sample. The poll covered a sample of 1,001 registered voters. The election analysis presented here is based on 715 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.7 percentage points.

When asked, “If the election were held today…who would you vote for?” Forty-nine percent chose Pritzker; 27 percent chose Rauner with 4 percent who selected the conservative Sam McCann and 4 percent who selected Libertarian Kash Jackson. The remaining 17 percent were undecided.

Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

In the other high-profile statewide race for a constitutional office, Attorney General, State Senator Kwame Raoul held a 36 percent to 26 percent lead over Champaign attorney Erika Harold with 39 percent undecided. Raoul led in Chicago by 50 percent to 23 percent with 26 percent undecided. He also led in the Collar Counties by 41 percent to 25 percent with 34 percent undecided; Harold led downstate by 27 percent to 19 percent with 53 percent undecided.

“There is an unusually large percentage of undecided voters in this race perhaps reflecting the low level of attention it has received compared to the high-profile governor’s race”, said Institute Director John Shaw. “This indicates that this race is still very much dependent on the late deciders.”

The voters were also asked “Are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic? The results showed that the Democrats are 19 percent more enthusiastic than the Republicans. Seventy percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic while 51 percent of Republicans said they are more enthusiastic about going to vote in the November elections. Independents trailed with 50 percent saying they were more enthusiastic and 26 percent saying they were less enthusiastic about voting this year.

Conservative voters chose more enthusiastic compared to less enthusiastic by 61 percent to 24 percent while liberal voters chose more enthusiastic by 73 percent to 14 percent.

“Illinois Democrats are displaying greater enthusiasm about this midterm election than are Republicans or Independents. The so-called “enthusiasm gap” is comparable to what we have been seeing across the country for some time” said Simon Institute Visiting Professor Charlie Leonard. “If it holds up and is reflected in comparable turnout numbers, it will be a major advantage for the Democrats.

Summarizing these results, John Jackson, one of the directors of the poll said, “While the Democrats clearly have an advantage in both of these high-profile races at this point, November 6th is still one month away. The campaigns and the candidates’ closing arguments and get out the vote efforts can still make a significant difference by then. [Emphasis added.]