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The Democrats’ Madigan problem

Monday, Jun 25, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan will be on the ballot in just one of Illinois’ 118 House districts this November, but his name and reputation will be featured in electoral battles throughout the state.

Gov. Bruce Rauner and the Republican Party will use Madigan against every Democrat from J.B. Pritzker on down to maybe even mosquito abatement district races.

Can Madigan’s lousy statewide image be used to defeat his fellow Democrats?

On the surface anyway, Madigan is less popular in Democratic Illinois than are unpopular Republicans Rauner and President Donald Trump. Sixty percent of Illinoisans polled in a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America survey said they had an unfavorable view of Madigan, compared to 56 percent for President Donald Trump and 55 percent for Rauner.

They’re all doing pretty poorly, but Trump “wins” this category if you look at people with “very unfavorable” opinions. Forty-nine percent of 600 likely Illinois voters who were polled June 9-11 hold a very unfavorable view of the president, while 46 say they have a very unfavorable opinion of the Illinois speaker and 39 percent say that about the Republican governor. In contrast, 27 percent say that about J.B. Pritzker. The poll’s margin of error was +/-3.99 percent.

Overall, the poll found that Pritzker led Rauner by nine points, 36-27, with 26 percent choosing an unnamed third-party candidate and 11 percent undecided.

Just 31 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of Speaker Madigan, while 41 percent of Democrats have an unfavorable view, according to the poll. And lots of folks within what’s considered the “base” of the Democratic Party’s statewide strength don’t like Madigan, either. African-Americans are split 43-43. Women turn thumbs down 27-56 fave/unfave, as do Chicagoans (30-58), suburban Cook County residents (34-53) and labor union households (36-54).

Rauner has his own troubles with his party’s base. The only important GOP demographic he’s not underwater with outside of self-declared Republicans is senior citizens, and they just barely tolerate him. The Democrats are sure to use Rauner’s name and reputation against Republican candidates throughout the state.

So, my pollster came up with a question to try to see who was more popular (or unpopular, as the case may be) with voters in actual down-ballot races: “If the election for state legislator were being held today, are you more likely to vote for a candidate supported by Bruce Rauner, or a candidate supported by Michael Madigan?”

Forty-one percent said they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Rauner, while 32 percent said the same about Madigan. Another 27 percent said it wouldn’t make any difference either way.

While majorities or pluralities of Democratic base elements chose Madigan, significant minorities chose Rauner. For instance, 11 percent of Democrats chose a legislative candidate backed by Rauner, compared to 59 percent for Madigan (among Republicans, those numbers were 6 percent Madigan and 79 percent Rauner).

Among African-Americans, a significant 23 percent would choose a Rauner-backed candidate and 54 percent would choose a Madigan-backed legislative contender. Chicagoans were 19 percent for a Rauner candidate and 43 for a Madigan person; the Cook County suburbs went 32 for a Rauner candidate and 41 for a Madigan candidate, and union households broke 30 percent for the Rauner candidate to 43 percent for the Madigan candidate.

Another way of looking at it is that Rauner out-performs his personal favorable/unfavorable ratings across the board when we stack him up against the image of Speaker Madigan.

Just 36 percent of whites viewed Rauner favorably, but 44 percent would vote for a Rauner candidate over a Madigan candidate. Thirty-six percent of collar county voters like Rauner, but 49 percent would pick a Rauner candidate over the 29 percent who’d choose a Madigan candidate. Forty-four percent of Downstaters said they had a favorable impression of Rauner, and 51 percent would vote for a Rauner-backed candidate over a Madigan-backed candidate. I could go on, but you get the idea.

So, what does this tell us? Well, first of all, neither state politician is beloved (duh). Indeed, they’re so disliked that candidates should avoid any association with the both of them. But hotly contested campaigns are often won on the edges, and the anti-Madigan message might have an edge over the anti-Rauner message.

We didn’t do this test with President Trump, who will certainly be used by the Democrats against the Republicans in many areas. And there are other issues out there that will decide various races. Plus, as always, this is just one poll in June.

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Monday, Jun 25, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Poll: Pritzker leads Rauner by nine points

Thursday, Jun 21, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

According to a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll, Democrat J.B. Pritzker leads Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner by nine points, 36-27, with 26 percent choosing an unnamed third-party candidate and 11 percent undecided. In other words, slightly more people said they preferred third party and/or were undecided than supported the frontrunner, Pritzker.

The partisan breakdown of respondents was 41 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 25 percent saying they were independent. So, the two candidates have a ways to go to even convince members of their own parties to stand with them.

A full 36 percent of Republicans were still either undecided (9 percent) or chose a third-party candidate (27 percent), while 27 percent of Democrats were either undecided (6) or say they are backing a third-party candidate (21).

It’s seems unlikely that a quarter of voters will wind up going third party on Election Day, but, hey, one never knows. Respondents who say they’re with an unnamed third-party candidate might be just temporarily parking themselves there before “coming home” in November. But these results also show deep dissatisfaction with both candidates, and that can’t be great news for the frontrunner Pritzker. Then again, I’d take his results over Rauner’s any day.

If you take a look at the attorney general candidates, you’ll see the exact same nine-point spread between the two. Sen. Kwame Raoul leads Republican Erika Harold 44-35. Pollster Gregg Durham said he considers these to be a generic ballot test. We didn’t poll a third-party candidate in that race.

According to the poll of 600 likely voters, 56 percent have an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump while 39 percent have a favorable view. That’s the exact same 56-39 split from the 2016 presidential results here.

So, why do these top of the ballot races have single-digit margins in a “wave” year like this? Do Rauner and Harold have a shot?

Pritzker has spent an absolute fortune, but it’s only June and he’s been hit with a lot of negatives since January. And keep in mind that a hobbled, unpopular Gov. Rod Blagojevich won by about 10 points during the last off-year “blue wave” in 2006 – which is right about where these races are.

One important Illinois-centric variable could be House Speaker Michael Madigan, who, it turns out, is just as or even more unpopular in Illinois as Trump. A very high 60 percent of likely Illinois voters have an unfavorable view of Madigan, while 39 percent have a favorable view.

A whopping 63 percent of independents or third-party voters have an unfavorable view of Madigan, which is higher than the 59 percent who had the same view of Trump. 56 percent of women and 62 percent of men have an unfavorable view of the House Speaker (Trump’s split was 60/51).

Back to the governor’s race, where 37 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Gov. Rauner, while a solid majority of 55 percent had an unfavorable view.

The poll taken June 9-11 with a margin of error of +/-3.99 percent found that 43 percent had a favorable opinion of J.B. Pritzker while 39 percent had an unfavorable view.

64 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Rauner, but 29 percent still have an unfavorable opinion of him and 8 percent were undecided, so the governor still has a ways to go after barely winning the March GOP primary.

The poll found that 67 percent of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Pritzker, while 17 percent had an unfavorable view. Pritzker has a bit of catching up to do on his side.

Rauner is underwater with just about every demographic. 57 percent of collar county voters and 59 percent of suburban Cook County voters have an unfavorable opinion of the governor. It’s closer Downstate, where he’s underwater by two points, 44 to 46.

Pritzker leads Rauner everywhere except Downstate. Pritzker’s ahead 53-13 in Chicago (that’s actually not a horrible number for Rauner), he has about a 10-point lead in suburban Cook, and he’s up 33-28 in the collars. Rauner has just a three-point 33-30 lead Downstate, which is not great for him.

Rauner leads Pritzker by 2 points among the 65+ crowd, but Pritzker leads in all other age groups. Whites are with Pritzker 33-31 and men lean Pritzker 34-28, which is surprisingly good news for the Democrat.

Again, I’d much rather have Pritzker’s numbers than Rauner’s, but the governor is not totally out of it yet. Democrats have been spiking the ball ever since the primary. They need to get to work.

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