Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Friday, Feb 6, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Mark Kirk had a very good fourth quarter…

Kirk raised $621,998 in the quarter that ended Dec. 31, more than twice what he pulled in during the third quarter and a sign that he is serious when he says he expects to run for re-election next year.

A copy of Kirk’s campaign disclosure form is not yet available, but a source familiar with it says it includes donations from 500 individuals and 120 political action committees and other groups. With the new money, the senator will have just over $2 million on hand in his campaign bank account.

Kirk certainly will have to raise a ton more. Insiders expect the 2016 race to cost well over $10 million, and perhaps twice that figure if he faces a top challenge in the GOP primary. But $2 million is certainly a nice place to be more than a year before anyone votes.

* He’s gonna need it and more. National Journal just released its poll of DC “insiders” and Kirk was rated as the second-most vulnerable Senator by both Democrats (26 percent, compared to 27 for Harry Reid) and Republicans (25 percent, compared to 42 for Reid). Comments by some of the Democratic insiders…

“Navy blue state, presidential year, Illinois native at the top of the Dem ticket. Good luck with that, Mark.”

“Illinois presidential turnout is going to make Kirk’s reelection really tough.”

“Recently embarrassed himself on climate change. If he continues to act like he shouldn’t be there, he won’t be.”

“If [Democratic Rep. Tammy] Duckworth runs, Kirk’s No. 1 out the door.”

From the Republicans…

“Illinois, presidential year, health concerns—doesn’t get much worse than that.”

I’m still not convinced that he’s a goner. Having a wealthy Republican governor adds a different dimension to state politics here. But if Rauner’s numbers tank, and Hillary does as well as expected here, and Kirk draws a strong opponent, then, yeah, he’s got his work cut out for him.

30 Comments

Poll: Emanuel 42, Garcia 18, Fioretti 10, Wilson 7, Walls 2

Thursday, Jan 29, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new Chicago Tribune poll has Mayor Rahm Emanuel leading the pack, but still not avoiding a runoff. But the trend is his friend…

In August, a Tribune poll found 46 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Emanuel while just 29 percent viewed him favorably. The new survey shows Emanuel has turned that around, with 43 percent viewing him favorably compared with 35 percent who look at him in an unfavorable light.

Similarly, the August poll found more than half of the city’s voters — 52 percent — disapproved of Emanuel’s job performance compared with 35 percent who approved. Again, the latest poll found Emanuel had recovered some, as voters were split over his stewardship of the city: 44 percent voiced approval and 42 percent disapproval.

The most notable factor in Emanuel’s turnaround is African-American voters’ view of him. Back in August, nearly six in 10 black voters disapproved of Emanuel’s handling of City Hall. Now, that group of voters is split, with 40 percent approving of Emanuel and 42 percent disapproving. Continued street violence and closing of nearly 50 schools, many in predominantly black neighborhoods, had helped drive Emanuel’s unpopularity among some black voters. […]

The latest poll found Emanuel with a sizable lead among black voters, garnering 39 percent, followed by Wilson with 14 percent, Garcia with 10 percent, Fioretti with 7 percent and Walls with 2 percent. Wilson and Walls are the two African-American candidates in the race.

* Related…

* Emanuel expands fundraising lead

* Sneed exclusive: Rahm endorsed by 15 labor unions

36 Comments

« NEWER POSTS