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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Candidate releases polling memo
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Tuesday, Oct 28, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Poll: All ballot proposals have strong support
Monday, Oct 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * Before we begin, here are the requirements for passing a constitutional amendment come November…
The math is a bit tricky because people tend to skip over those questions. But anything with over 60 percent support right now is looking good, and both proposals have that. I’ve pulled out all of the language about registered voters on this Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll memo because I think they’re meaningless. We want to look at likely voters, so I rewrote it a bit. Also, keep in mind that this poll is ancient: September 23 through October 15. However, since there is no well-funded and active opposition to any of these questions, the responses are probably in line with current thought…
* The ballot questions are merely advisory, so any result over 50 will help it in the GA…
691 interviews with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
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Possibly flawed poll results
Monday, Oct 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * As you know, I’m not a fan of polls conducted via online means. But since the New York Times and CBS News are putting their names on these YouGov polls, I figure we’d better cover them. This poll, like the last one, was taken over an extended period of time - 8 days in this instance, 10/16 - 10/23. And, like Rasmussen Results, the YouGov poll only asked about “other” candidates, rather than list the Libertarian’s name. That’s not good at all. With all that being said, the YouGov poll has Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner 45-41. That’s a bit wider spread than last month, when YouGov had Quinn up 46-43. * Let’s look at some models. HuffPo poll tracker... ![]() * TPM… ![]() ![]()
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Another four-point margin
Monday, Oct 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * A second poll has Tom Cross leading Mike Frerichs by four points in the state treasurer’s race. This one’s from the Tribune… ![]() * But there’s some good news for Frerichs in the xtabs…
If and/or when Chicagoans and Democrats come home, that’ll definitely boost Frerichs. But that indpendent split is not good news for Frerichs. * Meanwhile, the Illinois State Board of Elections voted 7-1 last week that the Frerichs campaign’s complaint against the Cross campaign “was not filed on justifiable grounds.” Frerichs alleged that Cross, “failed to file required A-1 reports, exceeded contribution limitations, and the political candidate of the committee maintained and established more than one candidate political committee for the office sought by the candidate.” The vote overturned a hearing officer’s recommendation. * In other news, the Frerichs campaign wants you to know that Treasurer Dan Rutherford has endorsed Tom Cross. They want you to know this because Cross hasn’t yet put the endorsement on his campaign page. *** UPDATE *** The hearing officer’s report is here…
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