Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Polls
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here. To inquire about advertising on CapitolFax.com, click here.
Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Candidate releases polling memo

Tuesday, Oct 28, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

  Comments Off      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Oct 28, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

  Comments Off      


Poll: All ballot proposals have strong support

Monday, Oct 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Before we begin, here are the requirements for passing a constitutional amendment come November…

A proposed amendment shall become effective as the amendment provides if approved by either three-fifths of those voting on the question or a majority of those voting in the election.

The math is a bit tricky because people tend to skip over those questions. But anything with over 60 percent support right now is looking good, and both proposals have that.

I’ve pulled out all of the language about registered voters on this Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll memo because I think they’re meaningless. We want to look at likely voters, so I rewrote it a bit. Also, keep in mind that this poll is ancient: September 23 through October 15. However, since there is no well-funded and active opposition to any of these questions, the responses are probably in line with current thought…

• Right to vote. Reflecting the current national debate over voting rights, respondents were asked if they favored or opposed the following provision: “No person shall be denied the right to register to vote or to cast a ballot in an election based on race, color, ethnicity, status as a member of a language minority, national origin, region, sex, sexual orientation, or income.”

Among likely voters, the results were 69.3 percent favored/strongly favored and 21.3 percent opposed/strongly opposed.

• Rights of crime victims. Respondents were asked, “Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would strengthen the Crime Victims’ Bill of Rights by increasing victims’ access to proceedings and increasing protections against harassment?”

Among the likely voters the results were 69.6 percent favored/strongly favored and 15.6 percent opposed/strongly opposed.

* The ballot questions are merely advisory, so any result over 50 will help it in the GA…

• Higher minimum wage. This question asked if voters would favor or oppose a proposal to raise the minimum wage in Illinois from $8.25 per hour to $10 per hour.

Among likely voters, 68.6 percent favored or strongly favored the proposed increase while 26.8 percent opposed or strongly opposed.

Partisan differences appeared: 89.9 percent of the Democrats favored or strongly favored while 67.0 percent of the Independents favored or strongly favored. Among likely Republican voters, 55.2 percent opposed or strongly opposed.

• Birth control: Tapping one of the most contentious political conflicts in the nation today, the respondents were asked, “Would you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to require all health insurance plans in Illinois to cover prescription birth control?”

Among likely voters, 59.3 percent strongly favored or favored while 32.6 percent opposed or strongly opposed. The most likely Democratic voters favored the measure by an 81.4 percent favor to 11.7 percent margin. The Republicans were nearly the opposite with 64.3 percent opposed or strongly opposed versus 28.1 percent who favored or strongly favored. The Independents were closer to the Democrats with 61.2 percent favorable and 33.0 percent opposed.

• Millionaire tax increase. In an attempt to measure support for the so-called “Millionaire’s Tax,” respondents were asked, “Would you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to add a 3 percent tax on all income above $1 million a year to provide additional funding to public schools?”

Among likely voters, 65 percent who favored or strongly favored and 30.2 percent opposed or strongly opposed.

83.3 percent of the Democrats favored or strongly favored the millionaire’s tax, with only 13.2 percent opposing. Two-thirds [66 percent] of the Independents favored or strongly favored, and 27.2 percent opposed. A strong majority [58.6 percent] of the Republicans opposed or strongly opposed this measure while only 36.2 percent of the Republicans most likely to vote favored or strongly favored.)

691 interviews with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

  9 Comments      


Possibly flawed poll results

Monday, Oct 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As you know, I’m not a fan of polls conducted via online means. But since the New York Times and CBS News are putting their names on these YouGov polls, I figure we’d better cover them. This poll, like the last one, was taken over an extended period of time - 8 days in this instance, 10/16 - 10/23.

And, like Rasmussen Results, the YouGov poll only asked about “other” candidates, rather than list the Libertarian’s name. That’s not good at all.

With all that being said, the YouGov poll has Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner 45-41. That’s a bit wider spread than last month, when YouGov had Quinn up 46-43.

* Let’s look at some models. HuffPo poll tracker...

* TPM

* Real Clear Politics

  35 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Another four-point margin

Monday, Oct 27, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A second poll has Tom Cross leading Mike Frerichs by four points in the state treasurer’s race. This one’s from the Tribune

* But there’s some good news for Frerichs in the xtabs

The poll found Frerichs with 59 percent to 11 percent for Cross in Democratic-dominated Chicago, with 23 percent undecided. Cross, meanwhile, held the advantage in suburban Cook County, the traditional GOP-leaning collar counties and in the 96 counties outside the Chicago metropolitan area.

The large percentage of undecided voters in the city was reflected in Frerichs getting only 64 percent support from Democratic voters while 75 percent of Republicans backed Cross. Among independents, Cross held a 42 percent to 17 percent edge over Frerichs with 27 percent undecided.

If and/or when Chicagoans and Democrats come home, that’ll definitely boost Frerichs.

But that indpendent split is not good news for Frerichs.

* Meanwhile, the Illinois State Board of Elections voted 7-1 last week that the Frerichs campaign’s complaint against the Cross campaign “was not filed on justifiable grounds.” Frerichs alleged that Cross, “failed to file required A-1 reports, exceeded contribution limitations, and the political candidate of the committee maintained and established more than one candidate political committee for the office sought by the candidate.” The vote overturned a hearing officer’s recommendation.

* In other news, the Frerichs campaign wants you to know that Treasurer Dan Rutherford has endorsed Tom Cross. They want you to know this because Cross hasn’t yet put the endorsement on his campaign page.

*** UPDATE *** The hearing officer’s report is here

RECOMMENDATION

For the reasons set forth above, it is the Recommendation of the Hearing Examiner that the Board find as follows:

1) The Complaint has been filed on justifiable grounds as to the 7 expenditures listed above that Respondent indicated should have been attributed to Cross for Treasurer rather than Citizens to elect Tom Cross State Representative.

    Strategic Media Services $ 7,095.58
    Scientific Flight 2,594.82
    Nevins 2,461.15
    Quick Signs 340.00
    Sheraton 1,120.00
    Sheraton 206.65
    Enterprise 198.00

    TOTAL: $ 14,016.62

  19 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Illinois becomes 19th state to beat back DOJ on voter database seizure attempt
* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Rep. Kelly Cassidy: Speaker Welch has issued a 'series of excuses, victim blaming, and a failure to publicly acknowledge shortcomings'
* LIG initially recommended no expulsion proceeding against Benton - One complainant claimed 'inaccuracies' in the report
* Speaker Welch statement (Updated x2 with Pritzker statement)
* LIG report released
* Legislative Ethics Commission still fine-tuning Benton report (Updated)
* Pritzker says he looks forward to seeing Welch's CPS funding plan
* Sean Grayson denied early medical release from prison
* Turning Promise Into Progress For Illinois Students
* Color me highly doubtful
* Governor Pritzker, Fight For Us.
* Today's must-read
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2026
July 2026
June 2026
May 2026
April 2026
March 2026
February 2026
January 2026
December 2025
November 2025
October 2025
September 2025
August 2025
July 2025
June 2025
May 2025
April 2025
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS | SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax | Advertise Here | Mobile Version | Contact Rich Miller