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Thursday, Sep 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Two new Reboot polls…

* Jesse White leads 61-26-5, with 7 percent undecided

* Lisa Madigan leads 54-30-5, with 7 percent undecided

White’s support among Republicans is 37 percent and he’s getting 55 percent of independents. Madigan is supported by 23 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of independents. Madigan’s opponent doesn’t have the cash to change that dynamic, but isn’t giving up. From a press release…

Republican Attorney General Candidate Paul Schimpf held a press conference [yesterday] and called on Attorney General Lisa Madigan to recuse herself from giving legal advice on all matters involving the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative (“NRI”). Madigan has told the media that she doesn’t believe she has a conflict of interest.

“Ms. Madigan’s inability to understand that there is a conflict of interest in this situation calls into question her competence to serve as Attorney General for the State of Illinois,” said Schimpf. “Her belief is contrary to the fundamentals of practicing law as defined by the Illinois Rules of Professional Conduct Rule 1.7 on Conflicts of Interest. Ms. Madigan, as Attorney General, was in a position to provide oversight on this program and failed to do so – a fact not in dispute. She is a material witness in the investigation of the failed Neighborhood Recovery Initiative and needs to recuse herself as soon as possible in this matter.”

There’s been little to no coverage of AG Madigan’s role in NRI. She was, indeed, on the board that oversaw the program. A bit more is here.

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Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats…

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women…

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster…

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology…

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

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JBT maintains strong lead

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.

From Reboot…

The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.

“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]

The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.

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