* The Hill’s poll last week had Republican Adam Kinzinger crushing freshman Congresscritter Debbie Halvorson 49-31. Democrats, however, said the poll looked weird because the universe had changed so drastically. President Obama, for instance, won the 11th District with 53 percent two years ago, but the universe in The Hill’s poll had just 41 percent of likely voters saying they voted for him, compared to John McCain’s 47.
So, the Halvorson campaign decided to release its own numbers. They say they’re behind, but only by four points…
* Adam Kinzinger leads, but only by a small 45% to 41% margin. This is an extremely close race, and the momentum seems to be on Halvorson’s side after her strong early buy on Chicago broadcast television.
* Halvorson is getting movement with key subgroups. She leads with women and she leads with union households in one of the heaviest union districts in the country. Even though independents are breaking against Democrats in many districts, Halvorson and Kinzinger are in a virtual dead heat among them (40% Kinzinger / 37% Halvorson).
Anzalone Liszt claims that Kinzinger’s lead has been halved since August, and that her 2000 ratings points on the teevee has helped make this thing close. Methodology…
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 general election voters in IL CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 5-7, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, and interviews were apportioned geographically based on expected voters turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for n=500 is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.
Keep in mind that this is a candidate poll, so take it for what it’s worth. However, a whole lotta Illinois Dems are relying on Anzalone Liszt this year. If they’re wrong, then there will be plenty of unpleasant surprises all around.
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the Kinzinger campaign…
Hey Rich:
FYI - Halvorson went dark last friday and has canceled all other time…while DCCC has canceled all but 400K for her for the final week (they previously had scheduled 1.4 mill …then were at 1.1 mill until this latest cancel).
Checking…
*** UPDATE 2 *** From the Halvorson campaign…
We’re still up on Chicago broadcast today (I confirmed that with our firm).
From what I know, the DCCC hasn’t allocated the funds for Chicago broadcast to any of the big three races at this point. I’ll certainly let you know when they do.
* Hare defends efforts to attract jobs: “I’m not going to sit back and just watch and go, ‘Well, you know, I know they need the money and I know it would put people to work, but I just, I don’t want to be criticized for doing it,’” Hare said. “If I could get a plant located here in this community and I knew it would take federal money to do it, I will tell you, I’d go to work on it tomorrow morning.” Terry Schilling, son and campaign manager for the GOP candidate, responded that, “The only thing that Representative Hare has built is $5 trillion of debt for our children and grandchildren.”
* Schoenburg: Hare-Schilling back-and-forth intensifies: Six months ago, a self-described “tea party blogger” from suburban St. Louis said “Jackpot” when U.S. Rep. PHIL HARE, D-Rock Island, gave the perfect sound bite for the YouTube age. As it turns out, TV stations might be the real jackpot winners. A conservative Iowa-based group says it is spending $500,000 to air an advertisement that includes the video of Hare’s comments.
* VIDEO: Phil Hare talks about why he’s running for office during an interview with The State Journal-Register editorial board.
* A new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale has Bill Brady opening up a nine-point lead over Gov. Pat Quinn, which is inconsistent with all but one poll taken earlier this month that either had the race super-close or Quinn ahead. But there are a ton of undecideds in this poll and the pollster didn’t push voters to say who they were leaning toward. Let’s have a look…
Quinn 29.8%
Bill Brady 38.4%
Whitney 2.2%
Green 1.5%
Cohen 5.9%
Someone else 2.6%
Don’t know 19.5%
Why include “Someone else” when they have all the ballot names? That many people won’t write in somebody. Also, this poll was taken over eleven days, which is a lot.
And to give you an idea about those undecideds, the Tribune had them at 12 percent, PPP had them at 11 percent and CNN had them at 4 percent and Rasmussen (thrown in just to give you an idea) had them at 8 percent.
* Still, the US Senate numbers seem to match up with everybody else…
Although, again, there’s an inordinately huge number of undecideds.
* This next question is hugely bad news for Democrats. A tied generic congressional ballot means doom because so many Democratic districts are overwhelmingly D…
If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate OR the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?
* Check out the difference between the national right track/wrong track numbers and those for Illinois and local…
We would like to know what you think about the direction of the United States of America. Generally speaking, do you think things in our country are going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 29.4%
Wrong direction 62.4%
Other/Don’t know 8.2%
And what about the direction of the State of Illinois? Generally speaking, are things in Illinois going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 11.1%
Wrong direction 81.3%
Other/Don’t know 7.7%
And how are things going in your city or area of the state? In general, are things in your city or area going in the right direction, or are they off track and heading in the wrong direction?
Right direction 45.5%
Wrong direction 42.9%
Other/Don’t know 11.6%
Incumbent legislators: Watch out, unless you can make yourself look like a local.
* Methodology…
758 likely voters taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 10. The margin for error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points
PPP has had some pretty reliable numbers, but I’d like to see if they detect any further tightening in this race. Their last poll had Gov. Pat Quinn trailing Sen. Bill Brady by seven points, the highest margin of any legit poll out there. Brady had this to say earlier today…
Most polls showed Brady with a slim to moderate lead over Gov. Pat Quinn. Recently, some polls suggested the race may be tightening. Not so, Brady said.
“We don’t think they’re tightening, we think our momentum is continuing,” Brady said during a stop Friday morning at Granny’s Kitchen in Harrisburg
Brady also used the latest Rasmussen poll to buttress his case, but as I’ve told you several times before, Rasmussen isn’t polling all the names on the ballot. When Scott Lee Cohen is included in a poll, the margin definitely appears to shift in Quinn’s favor. So, using that poll as evidence is just bogus.
“Mark Kirk voted to reward corporations with tax breaks for shipping jobs overseas,” says the ad’s narrator. “Now the Chamber of Commerce is spending over $75 million to help Republicans like Mark Kirk get elected. And where has the Chamber been getting some of their money lately? From foreign corporations in countries like China, Russia, and India — the same companies that threaten American jobs. It’s time to connect the dots. Exactly who is Mark Kirk working for? Because it sure isn’t Illinois.”
…Adding… The Kirk campaign says it can find no evidence yet that the ad is actually running on TV stations or cable right now.
It’s certainly true that millions are being spent without public disclosure, and that much of the money is coming from corporations taking advantage of a Supreme Court ruling easing restrictions on political spending. But using foreign funds to finance political ads is still a legal violation. Accusing anybody of violating the law is a serious matter requiring serious evidence to back it up. So far Democrats have produced none.
* MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program took a look at the Kirk vs. Giannoulias debate last night. The NRSC posted the segment about the mob banker back and forth…
* Now, on to the dueling polls. From the DCCC today…
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today released a new Benenson Strategy Group poll that shows Representative Bill Foster leading Republican challenger Randy Hultgren by 10 percent.
In the initial head-to-head in the race for Illinois’ 14th congressional district, Foster leads Hultgren 48 percent to 38 percent. Conducted October 4-6, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
“After it was revealed Randy Hultgren’s business was profiting off of the bank bailouts in an offshore investment fund, voters learned Hultgren is nothing more than a slick Springfield politician who is only out for himself,” said Gabby Adler, Midwestern Regional Press Secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “This poll proves the last thing Illinois voters want in Washington is another Springfield politician like Randy Hultgren.”
Republican state Sen. Randy Hultgren led Rep. Bill Foster (D) by 6 points in a new poll taken for the Republican’s campaign. Foster won the seat in a March 2008 special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) retired.
The poll showed Hultgren with 44 percent of the vote and Foster with 38 percent. Sixteen percent of voters were undecided, and 4 percent chose Green Party nominee Daniel Kairis. The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, surveyed 400 likely voters Oct. 3-4, and the poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points. Neither the campaign nor the Tarrance Group released any other numbers from the poll.
The poll showed a slight improvement for Hultgren over similar polls conducted for the campaign in May and September.
Much has changed in the race in the past month. Foster went up on broadcast TV in late September in the expensive district directly west of Chicago, and the National Association of Realtors and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are airing cable ads on his behalf. The Democrat’s campaign accused Hultgren’s investment firm of profiting off the federal bailout in an ad.
* More stuff and more videos…
* Quinn, Brady campaign as early voting starts today
* Politicians Stepping off with Columbus Day Parade
Two leading groups fighting violence against women and youth rapped Gov. Quinn Thursday for launching a $50 million anti-violence initiative when Illinois has become the biggest deadbeat state in the country by one new survey.
“We are dismayed and disheartened by the governor’s decision to spend $50 million on a new initiative at a time when the state owes millions of dollars to agencies and organizations that are providing critical services and prevention programming in countless communities across the state,” said Polly Poskin, executive director of the Illinois Coalition Against Sexual Assault.
Her organization, which distributes a mix of state and federal funding to 22 rape crisis centers across Illinois, has had its state funding cut 27 percent in the past two years and is owed more than $1.7 million because the state is five months behind in its bills. Because of the funding squeeze, six of those rape-crisis centers may not meet their payrolls by month’s end, she said.
“We are confused by the ability to find dollars in our current budget crisis when our local agencies are still waiting to be paid for fiscal year 2010,” said Vickie Smith, executive director of the Illinois Coalition Against Domestic Violence.
Governors love shiny, new programs. Too often, that comes at the expense of helping improve and fund existing services.
Gov. Pat Quinn pledged Thursday that the state will “soon” come through with promised payments to the Chicago Transit Authority so the agency is not forced to raise fares.
The CTA agreed to cancel proposed fare hikes for this year and next after the state agreed to cover for two years the cost of a loan the Regional Transportation Authority took out to make ends meet. The state has been slow to produce those funds.
“No, they aren’t going to raise fares,” Quinn said at a groundbreaking ceremony for a Salvation Army community center in the West Pullman neighborhood. “We have an agreement that we have with the RTA, and they will get the funds necessary to make sure the fare freeze for this year and next year continues. We’re in a tough economic time, and there aren’t going to be any fare increases at the CTA.”
Quinn said the transit agencies will get the funds “as soon as we possibly can.”
I’ll believe it when I see it.
* I told subscribers the other day about a recent poll by the Pew Center on the States. It fits well here, so let’s discuss it. From Pew…
On the revenue side of the ledger, 70 percent of Illinoisans, like respondents in the other four states surveyed, say they would be willing to pay more in taxes to maintain the current level of support for elementary and secondary education, and nearly six in 10 say the same for health and human services.
But when given a choice of several options for raising new money for the state, respondents continue to shy away from broad-based tax increases. Sixty-six percent say they favor raising taxes on alcohol and cigarettes and 54 percent favor expanding gambling, while 60 percent favor raising corporate taxes. But these are not major sources of revenue for the state, so even if they were increased, they would not bridge the gap. And there are other obstacles to these options: For instance, increasing income taxes on businesses is complicated by restrictions in the state constitution.
Just 26 percent of Illinoisans say they favor an increase in the income tax, the main source of state revenue. When asked which option they would prefer if the state had to raise taxes on individuals to keep the same level of services, just 18 percent say they prefer an across-the-board income tax increase; another 18 percent select extending the sales tax to services, and 12 percent say they favor raising the sales tax on all purchases. Nearly half of respondents favor raising income taxes on the wealthy—but that would require a constitutional amendment in Illinois.
It’s always “tax the other guy.” Gaming expansion and higher corporate taxes would fit that mold.
* And check out these responses. Click the pic for a larger image…
I have a feeling that if given the choice, Illinoisans might not do much better than the legislature when it comes to cutting services and raising revenues, especially when the TV ads started blaring. Your thoughts?
* And while everybody’s talking about the capital bill, the public says they’d rather more money be spent on schools…
Ironically, transportation ranks low on the list of priorities for Illinois residents, according to the survey. In fact, only one in five Illinoisans says he or she would be willing to pay higher taxes to maintain transportation funding at current levels.
And given a choice among major areas of state spending—K-12 education, higher education, Medicaid and transportation— more than half of Illinois respondents choose transportation as the area they would least protect from spending cuts. Only 5 percent say it is the area they would most want to protect.
* They don’t much care for borrowing, either, which is probably why Bill Brady has tried to tippy-toe around his $50 billion pension bond scheme…
* About half are “very concerned” about spending cuts. As coverage grows, so will that number…
* These next two will give you an idea of how Illinois stacks up with the other polled states. Again, click the pics for larger images…
