Maybe I’m just stupid, but I find it hard to get too excited about what passes for public discourse these days.
For instance, I probably have more reasons to hate Muslims than just about anyone I know. My wife’s Christian family was literally run out of Iraq by Muslim terrorists. Their house was bombed three times, and a gang of Muslim thugs threatened to take my wife’s brother hostage and make him a martyr by strapping a bomb to his chest.
But I don’t care at all about the Islamic center that some group wants to build two blocks from Ground Zero in New York, partly because I know all too well how the First Amendment was designed to protect unpopular speech and unpopular religions from the majority.
If you want to debate a zoning issue 800 miles away, go right ahead, but you also have to realize that you can’t legally stop it, so turn down the crazy knob, please. This looks more like a pogrom than a debate.
The only gun I’ve ever owned was an old, broken pistol given to me by a relative. I don’t know what happened to it, and I don’t want another one. But Gov. Quinn’s new TV ad blasting his Republican opponent, state Sen. Bill Brady for being soft on an assault weapons ban doesn’t particularly move me.
Maybe that’s because I live in a very safe neighborhood. Maybe it’s because I don’t easily succumb to fear tactics. Maybe it’s because I know gangsters’ weapons of choice are cheap, easily concealed and disposable pistols, which were banned in Chicago for years. Maybe it’s because the ad isn’t particularly well made.
Or maybe it’s because I noticed that two of the three Brady votes cited by Quinn’s TV ad took place in the 1990s. The Democrats have been bludgeoning the Republicans with this subject for decades. Tired, old subjects rarely strike fear into my heart.
My political newsletter is still doing well despite the Great Recession. But I am borderline enraged that unemployment is so high and nobody at any level of government seems to be talking about what to do.
Unlike some of my other positions, I think I’m with “the people” on this one. A recent Rasmussen poll showed that 87 percent of Illinoisans know someone who is unemployed or looking for work. And a solid majority of 55 percent named “economic issues” as their No. 1 priority for choosing a candidate.
Instead, the media want to spend their time yakking about that Islamic center, and Quinn is spending a half-million dollars on that assault weapons ad.
And then there’s Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk, who has spent a fortune this summer railing against “mob banker” Alexi Giannoulias.
Giannoulias, on the other hand, has talked about jobs since he kicked off his campaign last year. That issue has kept him in this race, despite all of his obvious problems. You’d think other candidates and pundits would learn from Giannoulias’ survival miracle. They haven’t.
It’s as if nobody even noticed that 500,000 people applied for new unemployment benefits last week alone. People are scared to death out there, and they are completely justified. But I’m thoroughly disgusted that the powers that be are channeling legitimate anger into useless “debates” over stupid “issues” rather than addressing the real problems head-on.
Dishonesty and incompetence must be exposed. The role of government absolutely needs to be debated. I don’t expect or want a one-note campaign here.
But we are in desperate need of ideas about this economy and I’m more than willing to listen if the candidates and the media would simply engage.
Rasmussen’s latest poll has Giannoulias leading Kirk by 17 points among those who put economic issues at the top of their list of things they’re looking for in a candidate.
* Related…
* 1 in 10 Illinois mortgage holders missed payments: The Mortgage Bankers Association, in their second quarter delinquency report, also found that the percentage of home loans in Illinois that were in foreclosure rose to 6.02 percent in the second quarter, from 5.85 percent in the year’s first quarter.
* Jobless rate highest for July in McLean Co. since ‘76
* July’s unemployment rate in Boone and Winnebago counties jumped to 15.7 percent, or 27,895 people, according to data released today by the Illinois Department of Employment Security. That’s up 0.9 percentage points from June, but down 0.3 percentage points from a year ago.
* Decatur area finally gets some good news in lower unemployment rate: It was 12.4 percent in July, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security statistics released Thursday.
* The unemployment rate for the five-county Peoria metropolitan area was 10.5 percent in July, up slightly from 10.3 percent in June, but down considerably from 12.8 percent in July 2009.
* Jobless rate rises in Champaign-Urbana, Danville areas: The Champaign-Urbana metro area – which includes Champaign, Ford and Piatt counties – had a 9.8 percent unemployment rate in July, up from 9 percent a year ago. The Danville metro area – which consists of Vermilion County – had a 12.4 percent rate, up from 11.8 percent a year ago.
* Unemployment declines in some cities but not Illinois Valley: Unemployment increased to 12.7 percent in July 2010 from 11.6 percent the previous July in the Ottawa-Streator Area, according to IDES. Job declines occurred in the sectors of manufacturing (minus 650) and leisure-hospitality (-325). In Bureau County, the increase in the unemployment rate was from 10.2 percent to 11.2 percent. In La Salle County, unemployment was at 13.3 percent in July 2010, compared to 11.9 the previous July.
* Birth Rates Fall Amid Economic Uncertainty: Recent data indicate that Illinois’ birth rate is at its lowest level since the Great Depression, with similar trends appearing in California and Arizona.
“Leaners” tie this up at 45-45, with 3 percent for “other” and 8 unsure. We really need to get those other candidates included in these polls. I called Rasmussen yesterday, so we’ll see what they do next time.
* This topline is interesting, if not terribly surprising…
* In terms of how you will vote in the next national election, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?
10% National Security Issues
55% Economic Issues
13% Domestic Issues
3% Cultural Issues
13% Fiscal Issues
7% Not sure
Crosstabs show that 58 percent of moderates, 50 percent of independents, 67 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Giannoulias supporters put economic issues at the top of their list. That number is less for Republicans (41), Kirk supporters (43) and conservatives (45) because “fiscal issues” rate higher than average.
Kirk has only recently begun talking about the economy, and now you can clearly see why. This whole “mob banker” thing is a lot of fun, but it isn’t helping him move upwards.
Alexi Giannoulias is loath to admit it, but LeAlan Jones could become his gnarliest nightmare.
Two recent polls show Giannoulias is locked in a suffocatingly tight race with U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk. Along comes the youthful and energetic Jones, a 31-year-old journalist, high school coach and youth mentor. He’s not only fresh, he’s “Green.” Jones is running with the insurgent Green Party, which is trying to make inroads in the Nov. 2 election.
Jones has no political or governmental record, paltry cash and scarce name recognition — plus a monstrous helping of chutzpah. He owns one unmistakable asset — he is African American. Jones may be a Green, but the color of the moment is black.
From PPP’s latest xtabs…
Yes, Jones could make a slight move if he becomes known. Yes, it is a concern for Giannoulias. Yes, there’s a long time to go. But Jones is not even showing up on the radar screen yet. Rasmussen’s xtabs have 5 percent of African-American voters leaning towards “other.” There are indeed plenty of undecideds, but without cash and a strategy, it’s gonna be tough to eat into Giannoulias’ numbers, particularly with Obama on his side.
For the first time, they also included “leaners” in the poll. In other words, those who say they are undecided are asked whom they are leaning towards. The margin narrows a wee bit…
Brady: 49%
Quinn: 41%
Some Other Candidate 3%
Not sure 7%
It really would be nice if Rasmussen started polling the other candidates in this race.
This race now moves from Leans GOP to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
From far away, maybe it looks that way. I still don’t see it up close, though.
Back to the pollster…
Brady receives support from 85% of Republicans, while Quinn is favored by just 68% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Brady holds a commanding 61% to 17% lead.
Quinn, who took over from impeached governor Rod Blogojevich more than 18 months ago, continues to face a $13-billion state deficit, one of the country’s worst. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters in the state know someone who is out of work and looking for a job. Forty-three percent (43%) say the job market is worse than a year ago, while only 15% say its better.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Illinois voters approve of the job Quinn is doing as governor. Sixty percent (60%), however, disapprove of his job performance.
Brady is viewed Very Favorably by 19% of the state’s voters and Very Unfavorably by 17%. Quinn earns Very Favorable marks from 10% and Very Unfavorable reviews from 31%.
Both candidates are well-known in the state, but at this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
* A check of the crosstabs shows Quinn doing quite well with African-Americans. The Illinois Chamber, you may recall, claimed that once those black voter numbers firmed up for Quinn, this could be a 5-6 point race. But with 75 percent black support, it’s still a 9-point race. And Scott Lee Cohen hasn’t ramped up his campaign yet. Quinn’s black support rises to 80 percent with leaners, which accounts for just under half of Quinn’s one-point narrowing because Brady picks up an additional point among African-Americans and rises to 10.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on August 23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
Illinois 11. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D) finds herself in deeper trouble than she expected, as GOP challenger Adam Kinzinger has emerged as a serious threat to her. The state political environment is increasingly toxic for Democrats, and polling shows Halvorson, a former leader in the state legislator, in bad shape. Move from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-up as Halvorson’s prospects deteriorate.
Other pundit ratings on this race, from Halvorson’s opponent…
The Cook Political Report - Toss-Up (moved from Lean D, 8/17/10)
Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP
