Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Friday, Jul 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has some major movement in the governor’s race. Numbers in brackets are results from the pollster on June 7, April 28, April 5 and March 8…

Brady: 43% [47% 45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 40% [36% 38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 9% [8% 5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 8% [10% 11%, 10%, 9%]

* From the pollster…

The survey, taken Wednesday night, follows Quinn’s announcement late last week that he was cutting state spending by $1 billion as he wrestles with one of the worst state budget deficits in the country. State legislators wrapped up their session earlier this year, leaving Quinn with a $13 billion deficit to resolve. […]

Given Illinois’ economic problems and the national political environment, Quinn is in a surprisingly tough race despite the powers of incumbency and the state’s strong Democratic tendencies.

* Favorables…

Eleven percent (11%) of Illinois voters now have a Very favorable opinion of Quinn, while 27% view him Very Unfavorably.

Brady is seen Very Favorably by 15% and Very Unfavorably by 16%.

These numbers are consistent with the earlier surveys. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

* Quinn approval…

* How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

10% Strongly approve
34% Somewhat approve
23% Somewhat disapprove
31% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure

* Methodology…

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC

29 Comments

Rasmussen: Giannoulias 40, Kirk 39

Thursday, Jul 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rasmussen has a new poll. Previous results from Rasmussen’s polls conducted June 7, April 28, April 5, March 8 and February 3 are in brackets…

Kirk: 39 [42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 40 [39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Other: 9 [7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 12 [12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

Not a huge amount of movement since last month but Kirk’s overall trend is downward since late April. He peaked during the time that Giannoulias’ bank went under. Giannoulias tanked a bit back then, but hasn’t really come back yet, even though Kirk had a very bad June. This thing will be close for a while. From the pollster…

The Illinois Senate race remains a virtual tie, but Republican Mark Kirk’s support appears to be trending down. […]

This is the first time Kirk’s support has ever fallen below the 40% mark. From February through June, he consistently attracted from 41% to 46% of the vote.

This marks the first time since March, however, that the Democrat has risen out of the 30s. His support against Kirk since February has ranged from 37% to 44%. […]

Kirk attracts 79% of the Republican vote while 73% of Democrats back Giannoulias. The Republican holds a two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But one-third of those voters are not committed to either major party candidate.

Favorability…

Giannoulias is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) of Ilinois voters and Very Unfavorably by 21%.

Seven percent (7%) also have a Very favorable opinion of Kirk, while 20% regard him Very Unfavorably.

The Democrat’s numbers have changed little from a month ago, while the Republican’s favorability ratings have fallen slightly. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Other questions asked…

* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

29% Strongly approve
25% Somewhat approve
9% Somewhat disapprove
37% Strongly disapprove
0% Not sure

* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?

42% Strongly favor
13% Somewhat favor
12% Somewhat oppose
31% Strongly oppose
3% Not sure

* Suppose the new Arizona immigration law was being considered for your state. Would you favor or oppose passage of that law in your state?

52% Favor
33% Oppose
15% Not sure

* The U.S. Justice Department has decided to challenge the legality of Arizona’s new immigration law in federal court. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to challenge the legality of Arizona’s new immigration law?

38% Agree
51% Disagree
11% Not sure

* Methodology…

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

* TPM’s tracker of all surveys done on this race to date…

* Thoughts?

40 Comments

Poll: Brady leads 34-30-9

Wednesday, Jun 16, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told subscribers this morning, Public Policy Polling has released more results from its latest poll. PPP’s April results are in parentheses…

Brady 34% (43)
Quinn 30% (33)
Whitney 9% (n/a)
Undecided 27% (24)

This is the first time that PPP included Green Party nominee Rich Whitney in its polling, so that led to some of the change since April.

* From the pollster…

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is his own worst enemy. 50% of Illinois voters disapprove of him, while only 27% of voters approve and 23% have no opinion. His opponents are generally unknown. 56% of voters have yet to form an opinion of Republican Bill Brady and 80% are unsure of Green Party candidate Rich Whitney.

In a horserace Brady comes out on top with 34% of the vote, even though he is unknown amongst a majority of voters. Governor Quinn follows with 30% and Whitney receives a meager 9%. This may be a sign of people voting against Quinn, not for Brady.

It appears that Governor Quinn has not recovered from his primary battle. 62% of Democrats either disapprove (37%) or have no opinion (25%) of their party’s nominee.

While the same is true for Brady—62% of Republicans either disapprove or have no opinion of their party’s nominee—only 10% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Brady. Quinn has an uphill battle, as he has to regain the support of Democrats who know him and dislike him. Brady simply has to get his name out.

* Quinn is only getting 51 percent of the Democratic vote, which is just plain horrible…

And check out how badly the governor is doing with women voters…

Racial breakdown…

This is what you’d call an extremely unmotivated Democratic electorate.

* More from the pollster…

Quinn’s numbers really haven’t changed much at all over the course of the three Illinois polls PPP has conducted this year. The chances of his actually convincing Illinois voters they like him by November do not seem very good. But he can make voters in this strongly Democratic state think that Brady is an even worse alternative and there’s a lot of room for him to make that argument with most voters not yet having formed an opinion about the GOP nominee.

Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who got 10% of the vote in 2006, is polling at 9% in this poll. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up that level of support. Rod Blagojevich’s reelection was pretty much a foregone conclusion by election day last time so disaffected Democrats could safely cast a vote for Whitney without it resulting in the election of a Republican Governor. It doesn’t look like that will be the case this time and Whitney could see an erosion in support if Democrats who don’t like Quinn still end up voting for him because they feel the need to keep Brady from being elected.

Brady is still favored here but he is not strong enough on his own merits as a candidate for this race to turn into a blowout. It should be competitive into the fall.

Thoughts?

33 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Jun 16, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

« NEWER POSTS