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This just in… New Rasmussen poll - McKenna in the lead

Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 6:28 pm - Fox Chicago got an advance look at a new Rasmussen poll of 527 likely Republican primary voters. PPP’s results are in parentheses followed by the Tribune results…

Andy McKenna: 20 (17, 19)

Jim Ryan: 16 (13, 18)

Kirk Dillard: 13 (19, 14)

Bill Brady: 11 (16, 9)

Adam Andrzejewski: 11 (11, 7)

Dan Proft: 8 (7, 6)

Some other candidate: 4 (NA)

Not sure: 17 (17, 17)

More…

The statewide poll was taken on January 25, 2010 and has a sampling error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Rasmussen comes close to the Tribune numbers. But things are so close in that race that it’s anybody’s guess.

  44 Comments      


A new third rail? Plus, other hot buttons

Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* These Tribune poll results are why it was such a big mistake for Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Ryan to say he’d be open to leasing the tollway system…

Oof.

From the Trib

Politicians who hope to gain traction with voters by urging that the Illinois Tollway be leased to a private company might want to rethink their strategy.

By overwhelming numbers, Republican and Democratic voters alike oppose privatization of the tollway system and believe it would lead to higher tolls, according to a Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

The statewide poll of likely primary voters, conducted Jan. 16 to 20, shows Democrats opposing privatization 72 percent to 14 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Republicans oppose the idea 65 percent to 16 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

Why? Among Democrats, 71 percent say tolls are certain to increase if the tollway is leased to a private company; 68 percent of Republicans feel the same way.

It’s a no-win idea.

This is what JRyan actually said

[Ryan] said, if elected, he’d consider leasing the Illinois tollway system to a private operator. And he said that on the same day that rates were increased on parking meters leased by Chicago to a private operator in one of the most politically unpopular deals in recent city history.

“I want to consider and will consider every innovative approach possible to address our budget problems,” said Jim Ryan, (R) candidate for governor.

The former attorney general–who the Tribune poll suggested is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for Illinois governor– says leasing the suburban tollway system to a private operator might be the key to bailing out Illinois from its $13 billion budget hole.

“I’m willing to put everything on the table and take a look at it,” said Ryan.

Tollway users, however, have seen what happened when the Skyway was leased: Rates went up. And everybody has seen what happened to the price of Chicago parking meters when they were leased to a private company.

It could bring in big bucks, but it’s a killer issue. The Tribune didn’t post its crosstabs, so we don’t know how this breaks down by region, but I’d bet that the suburbs don’t love it.

* On another hot button topic, the Rockford Register-Star actually editorialized earlier this week in favor of video gaming for its city

The revenue generated by these video games is for a specific purpose. It will go to help pay off the bonds for the state’s long-needed and often neglected capital construction plan. Video gaming makes up 25 percent of the revenue to pay those bonds and we’re worried that if revenues fall short, other taxes may be raised.

Video gambling is already going on illegally. The state is legalizing the activity and taking its share.

We believe there are social costs to gambling but also think that government should only go so far to protect us from ourselves. People who are susceptible to addictive behaviors will find an outlet.

It’s time to take advantage of new legal sources of revenue.

Common sense on an editorial page. Who woulda thunk it?

Whatever the case, the editorial appeared to work. The city council refused to opt out last night.

* Right next door in Machesney Park, the village zoning commission voted for strict restrictions on campaign yard signs

The village’s Planning and Zoning Commission voted 5-1 Monday to recommend approval of a law that would limit campaign signs to 6 square feet per side in residential areas and 9 square feet per side in all other areas of the village.

Only one political sign per candidate or issue would be allowed on any lot, with the exception of corner lots, which are allowed two signs. […]

Opposing candidates would be restricted from placing signs within 10 feet of each other, and signs would not be allowed to be displayed more than 60 days before an election.

Violators would have their signs removed and could be fined up to $50 per violation.

[Oops. Misread the darned story. But it’s still a goofy idea.] OK, for starters, that one sign limit is just goofy. What if the husband and wife are on different sides of a campaign? I can tell you from my own experience growing up, that happens a lot.

And candidates can’t place signs within 10 feet of each other? Who’s gonna get the fine? Both? So, what if a candidate complies with this rule and puts up a sign, then another candidate violates the rule and places the sign right next to it? This also happens all the time. Which one gets dinged?

Silliness.

* Related…

* Referendum to seek voter input about wind turbines in McLean, Livingston counties: Ballots in White Oak Township in McLean County will carry three referendum questions concerning the White Oak Energy Center. The advisory propositions seek input on whether a moratorium should be issued through Dec. 31, 2013, on issuing special-use permits for new wind turbines near Carlock. A second question asks voters if a requirement that new township road agreements should be finalized before extensions of special-use permits are granted for wind turbines in the township. The third question asks whether measures should be taken to protect the property values of White Oak Township residents before permits are extended.

  13 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** PPP poll: Hynes, Dillard take the lead

Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I told subscribers about this new poll already, but Public Policy Polling just posted the results on its blog, so here you go

A primary loss for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is looking more and more possible. He trails Dan Hynes 41-40 in our poll of the race.

Hynes’ slight advantage is due largely to a 45-38 lead with African Americans, suggesting that a controversial ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington making disparaging comments about Quinn may be working to Hynes’ advantage. The two candidates are tied among white voters with Quinn holding a 44-36 lead with Hispanics.

Quinn’s approval rating even among Democratic primary voters is just 38%, with an equal 38% disapproving of his job performance. 35% of voters view Hynes favorably to 25% unfavorably.

This race could still go either way but the momentum is in Hynes’ favor given his huge deficit in polling just a month ago.

The Republican race is even more up for grabs with five candidates polling within eight points of each other. Kirk Dillard is at 19%, followed by Andy McKenna with 17%, Bill Brady with 16%, Jim Ryan at 13%, and Adam Andrzejewski at 11%. Of the remaining candidates only Dan Proft with 7% is not in double digits.

At this point it seems the momentum is with Dillard, McKenna, and Brady with Ryan suffering from whatever the reverse of momentum is but on the Republican side it is definitely anyone’s game.

A week out from the primary there are still ten plausible match ups for the general election with five Republicans and two Democrats in serious contention- it’s not too often you see this kind of pile up so late in the game.

The full results, including crosstabs, are here.

Important note: This is not the poll that Fox Chicago had last night. I’m choosing not to post that poll until I can find out more about it.

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Dillard’s campaign manger is the first to issue a press release…

“With just one week to go until the Primary Election, today’s poll from Public Policy Polling (on Capitol Fax) shows that the Dillard campaign continues to gain momentum from voters across the state. It’s clear that Illinois Republicans are supporting Dillard’s plan to create jobs, balance our State’s budget, and clean up corruption in Springfield.

“It’s too bad Andy McKenna has decided to make this a negative campaign against his fellow Republicans. As former Chairman of the Illinois Republican Party, Andy said that he would unite the party around the issues that mattered. Andy also said that he would be an ethical leader. Clearly, that is not what he has done in this race, as it has been found that he unethically used party resources to bolster his run for governor while party chairman. That’s just more of the same kind of leadership Illinois is suffering from.

“Public Policy Polling is a highly reputable and accurate firm with a great track record in 2008 and most recently, the Massachusetts Senate race. The Wall Street Journal cites Public Policy Polling was one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2008 election cycle.”

  61 Comments      


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Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Monday, Jan 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As we saw over the weekend, the Tribune poll has things mighty close in the two governor’s races. December results are in parentheses…

* Pat Quinn: 44 (49)
* Dan Hynes: 40 (23)

* Andy McKenna 19 (12)
* Jim Ryan 18 (26)
* Kirk Dillard 14 (9)
* Bill Brady 9 (10)

* The Question: Who do you think will win the two primaries? Explain, please.

  69 Comments      


Hoffman attacks on air; RedState dreaming; Plummer up with new spot

Monday, Jan 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* David Hoffman has finally aired his long-promised attack ad. The spot whacks Alexi Giannoulias on Tony Rezko and touts Hoffman’s newspaper endorsements. Rate it


Um, the Giannoulias family bank didn’t “let” Rezko bounce a half-million dollars in checks. The bank didn’t honor the checks and the casinos got quite upset about it.

* Erick Erickson, the top dog over at RedState, is dreaming

Conservatives across the country are seriously considering a last minute air-drop of support into Illinois for Pat Hughes. The thinking goes that the last minute effort to help Scott Brown put him over the finish line and the same could be done in these last eleven days before the Illinois GOP primary. […]

He is not polling well against Kirk right now, but then he has significantly lower name identification. All the polling suggests Kirk’s support is very week and once people find out about Hughes, they break overwhelmingly for Hughes.

Scott Brown was a pretty well-known commodity by the last week and was either leading or coming very close to it by this point in the MA Senate campaign. And even if Hughes’ new poll is right - and that’s seriously doubtful considering that nobody even knows who his pollster is - he’s still trailing by 20 points. That’s a lot to overcome in a week - and that assumes the incoming cash is immediate. The Trib poll is probably more accurate anyway.

* Republican Lt. Governor candidate Jason Plummer, who has raised $731,000 this month alone in cash and (mostly) loans, has a new TV ad. Rate it


* Related…

* Recommendations in Illinois Senate and governor primaries.

* Hoffman, Kirk best for Senate

* GOP salivating for U.S. Senate seat

* Brown’s win shows Republicans how to seize Obama’s old Illinois Senate seat

* Giannoulias, Hoffman report on fund-raising efforts

* Up close and personal with Dem Senate candidates

* Democratic Endorsement: U.S. Senate - Hoffman

* Republican Endorsement: U.S. Senate - Kirk

  43 Comments      


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Monday, Jan 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tribune poll: Hoffman still in third place, Kirk maintains huge lead

Sunday, Jan 24, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* David Hoffman is, indeed, surging, but he’s still in third place according to the new Tribune poll. December Tribune poll results are in parentheses…

Giannoulias 34 (31)
Jackson 19 (17)
Hoffman 16 (9)
Meister 1 (1)
Undecided 13 (21)

Most of the undecideds appear to be breaking to Hoffman, but a lot of this movement is within the margin of error, so be cautious.

From the Trib

Jackson, the lone African-American contender in the Democratic contest, has the support of 48 percent of black voters, which has helped keep her virtually even with Giannoulias among Chicago voters. But Jackson’s percentage of black support has not increased significantly since December, while Giannoulias’ backing from African-Americans has roughly doubled to nearly a quarter of the black vote.

Giannoulias also holds a healthy edge over his rivals of 2-to-1 or better among suburban Cook County and collar-county voters.

Experience has shown that an African-American candidate can go from 50 percent to 85 percent of the black vote in a heartbeat late in the game, so keep that in mind.

From the Trib’s pollster

Three major candidates have gained a few points in name recognition and favorable ratings. Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman has been critical in TV ads of Alexi Giannoulias about Bright Start college fund losses due to Oppenheimer Core Fund investments in mortgage-backed securities, plus questionable loan recipients from his family’s bank. However, there is not much indication this led to increased unfavorability for Giannoulias, +3 points.

* On to the Republicans

Kirk 47 (41)
Hughes 8 (3)
Thomas 3 (3)
Martin 3 (2)
Undecided 35 (46)

Tribune

More than half of GOP voters said they agreed with the tea party movement, including nearly 70 percent of those who describe themselves as very conservative. But that hasn’t translated into support for Hughes. The survey found Kirk being supported by 48 percent of Republicans who said they backed the tea party movement while Hughes got only 10 percent support.

While one-third of likely GOP primary voters said they mostly agree with Kirk on the issues, nearly a quarter of GOP voters said they believe he isn’t conservative enough — a percentage similar to six weeks ago.

Trib’s pollster

Kirk’s opponents are still known by only half or less of primary voters. Voter opinions of any of his six opponents - good or bad - ranges from only 4% to 16%. That means only 4%-16% know enough about any of them to have an opinion. The level of undecided voters remains very high just two weeks before Election Day. Unlike the race for governor, none of his opponents have run or been elected to state office so unknown alternatives to Kirk leads to many who remain undecided – 35%.

* Hughes released his own poll, according to CQ Politics

With eight days left until the Feb. 2nd primary, real estate developer Patrick Hughes (R) has significantly increased his support in a new survey from his campaign - although he still trails GOP front-runner Rep. Mark Steven Kirk by a 20-point margin in the open-seat Illinois Senate race.

Hughes scored 22 percent with likely GOP voters in a survey sponsored by his own campaign, while Kirk scored 42 percent. Every other GOP candidate in the race had less than 5 percent support in the uninformed ballot poll, while 27 percent of survey respondents said they were undecided.

Hughes, who has already given upwards of $250,000 of his own funds to the race, is considered to be Kirk’s cheif primary competition, but has been badly trailing the five-term lawmaker in prior public polls.

The Jan. 21-22 Shamrock Polling survey took the opinions of 1,104 likely Republican voters.

I’ve never heard of Shamrock Polling, and a Google search comes up almost empty, except for that CQ story and one person who claims he received an e-mail from the company, which allegedly charges $500 a month for 1,000-person polls.

  40 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Your moment of zen
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* A walk down memory lane
* Springfield hosts the return of women’s pro baseball
* Roundup: Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias announces run for Chicago mayor
* Madigan flashbacks?
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Rep. Canty says she is ‘disturbed’ by LIG’s conduct
* Illinois becomes 19th state to beat back DOJ on voter database seizure attempt
* Yesterday's stories

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