* Back to that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. […]

The survey of 1000 registered voters was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three point one percentage points.

Of the total sample, 34 percent said they were personally affected by the crisis while 62 percent were unaffected. Those opinions have varied little during the past year.

Dr. Linda Baker, university professor at the Institute, said “Illinoisans are aware that the budget crisis is no longer an abstract question, but instead something that is growing in significance and having an effect on the state’s ability to attract and retain businesses and residents.”

“One hopeful finding is the increased percentage of Illinoisans who see the solution as a mix of both budget cuts and increasing revenues. Hopefully this can help spur policymakers on both sides of the aisle to consider a compromise that includes solutions offered by both parties,” she said.

David Yepsen, director of the Institute, said “I’m surprised more people aren’t feeling affected by this deadlock in Springfield. I thought the numbers of people impacted would be increasing as it wore on but it’s also true many people aren’t impacted by changes in government services.”

Among those who saw an impact on their own lives, the largest group - at 18 percent - saw the budget stalemate as the cause of their job loss or threat of loss. Another 15 percent saw it as the cause of cuts to general social services and 14 percent perceived it as the source of cuts to K-12 education funding.

* The actual question…

Have you or someone in your immediate family been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate?

Social Services 47.8%

Social services (generally) 14.7%
K-12 education 13.9%
Mental health care 6.5%
Child care costs/services 5.9%
Higher education (including MAP grants) 5.6%
Drug treatment costs/services 1.2%

Economic (job, housing, etc.) 31.0%

Job lost/threatened 18.3 %
Economy (generally) 8.3%
Housing (affordability/quality) 3.2%
Utility assistance program cuts (home heat, air, etc.) 1.2%

Local government/area 10.7%

Local economy 4.7%
City government cuts 2.4%
Highway and road construction/maintenance 2.1%
Facility closure 1.5%

Other 4.4%
Don’t know 6.2%

So, let’s count “you or someone in your immediate family” as households. There are 4.6 million households in Illinois, or about 39,000 in each of the 118 state House districts.

That means, with this particular interpretation (which isn’t quite accurate, but it’s close enough for our purposes here), over 13,000 households in each House district are impacted in some way or another by the impasse. You’d think that would cause a greater response from legislators. I mean, they get all freaked out when a much smaller fraction of that total are upset about something.

* Also, 7,000 households in each House district contained someone who either lost their job or has been threatened by job loss due to the impasse? That’s huge. It probably doesn’t line up with reality, but the perception is gigantic and legislators should beware.

And speaking of not lining up with reality, 14 percent think K-12 funding has been cut, which isn’t the case, but that’s what they think.

*** UPDATE ***  Press release…

John Bouman, President of the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law and Chair of the Responsible Budget Coalition’s Executive Committee, today released the following statement regarding a new Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll measuring opinions on the state budget stalemate in Illinois:

“34 percent of respondents said they were personally affected by the budget crisis. The poll confirms what the Responsible Budget Coalition’s network of advocates and providers already know - over one million people have already been hurt by the loss of jobs and services because of Illinois’ failure to pass a fully funded, responsible budget. Millions more are threatened as the impasse continues.

In the wake of the stopgap budget Band-Aid, news stories about budget impasse have dropped from the front pages. That doesn’t cover the fact that real people and businesses continue to be negatively impacted by the direct and indirect costs of the collective failure to produce a real budget.

These numbers should get the attention of lawmakers who have turned their eyes away from Springfield in favor of a focus on elections. The effects of inaction are felt by voters in every legislative district. While the poll clearly shows that voters favor differing approaches to resolving the crisis, they all want it solved responsibly and quickly.”