To: Interested Parties
From: ALG Research
Re: IL Statewide poll findings
Illinois voters like labor unions. Conversely, they do not like Bruce Rauner or think he is doing a good job as Governor. They side with labor unions in fights with Bruce Rauner generally, and they side with AFSCME specifically in their current dispute with the Governor.
Key Findings
• Labor unions and workers are popular in Illinois. Voters are favorable towards “public employee unions” (51% favorable / 29% unfavorable) and “state government workers” (57% favorable / 28% unfavorable).
• Voters have turned on Bruce Rauner. Last April, voters gave Rauner a net positive job rating (45% positive / 42% negative) and personal popularity rating (47% favorable / 36% unfavorable). That’s now flipped, and Rauner has a poor personal rating (38% favorable / 50% unfavorable) and job rating (35% positive / 60% unfavorable). That includes bad ratings with:
o Independents (32% positive / 64% negative job)
o The Collar counties (45% positive / 50% negative)
o Downstate (42% positive / 54% negative)
o People who voted in the November 2014 election (37% positive / 59% negative)
• In general, voters trust public employee unions more than Bruce Rauner in a dispute. They favor public employee unions by 24 points (54% unions / 30% Rauner) when it comes to conflicts between them and Rauner, an improvement for unions since last April (51% unions / 33% Rauner).
• In the current dispute between state employees and Bruce Rauner, voters agree with state employees. Voters overall side with state workers, as do voters in the Collar counties, Downstate, Independents, and midterm-election voters:
“When it comes to the current dispute between the state employees’ union and Bruce Rauner, which of the following do you agree with more?
o “State employees say they are willing to negotiate with Bruce Rauner, even offering to limit pay raises and pay more for their health care. But just like Rauner held the state budget hostage for a year, he refuses to negotiate with workers. Instead he’s trying to force our everyday heroes like caregivers and emergency responders to accept steep cuts to their standard of living. 56%
OR
o “Bruce Rauner says that we are in such a fiscal mess because past governors gave too much to government unions that funded their political campaigns. He says that the unions’ demands would cost taxpayers three billion dollars, and that the state can’t afford employee pay raises or generous health care benefits.” 34%
• On the following points of contention, voters also agree more with the state employees’ union than Rauner. Voters don’t just agree with ASFCME on the general issue, they also take the union’s side on the key specific points of disagreement between AFSCME and Rauner.
“Which of the following do you agree with more?”
o The union says Rauner is wildly exaggerating the cost of workers’ pay and benefits for his own political gain. 58%
OR
o Bruce Rauner says the union’s demands would cost taxpayers three billion dollars. 32%
o The union says public service workers are important. They keep us safe, protect kids, care for veterans, and more. 62%
OR
o Bruce Rauner says government unions are part of the corrupt bargain in Springfield causing our state’s mess. 28%
o The union says Bruce Rauner is trying to destroy unions, so he can get a blank check to outsource public services for private profit. 60%
OR
o Bruce Rauner says we need to cut Illinois state workers’ excessive pay and benefits. They are the highest-paid state workers in the nation at $60,000 a year. 30%
The findings are based off of an n=600 sample poll of November 2016 likely voters conducted on landlines and cellphones. Interviews were apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. The expected margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level is +4.0% and higher for subgroups.
