Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Generic congressional ballot not great for Dems - Halvorson has campaign manager - Obama’s no big impact

Friday, Aug 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling took a look at the generic congressional ballot in Illinois…

If the election for Congress was today, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
46% Democrat
40% Republican
14% Undecided

Even though the Democrats are ahead, that’s a bit misleading. It isn’t good news. The pollster explains…

In Illinois Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot by a 46-40 margin. That may not be terribly reassuring though given how much the party runs up the score in a small number of districts. Six of Illinois’ districts voted for President Obama at a 70% rate or higher in 2008.

…the 6 point generic ballot lead for Democrats in Illinois exceeds the 2 point lead we found for Alexi Giannoulias. That may give you a better idea of the shape Democrats would be in that race if they’d chosen a nominee with less baggage.

What that means is a whole bunch of targeted Democrats are in trouble.

* Speaking of targeted Democratic congresscritters, Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson did have a replacement in mind when she ousted her campaign manager. She’s bringing in Julie Merz…

“The Halvorson camp is talking with Julie Merz about taking over as campaign manager, Vanderbilt said. Merz’s resume includes being campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.), both of whom are members of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats committed to fiscal responsibility and government accountability. She also worked on former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley’s (D-N.J.) presidential campaign in 2000.”

They’re more than just talking about it. I’m told it’s a done deal.

* Back to PPP’s poll results…

Illinois voters say they would be negatively influenced if a candidate was endorsed by Barack Obama. And if his support isn’t an asset in his home state it’s hard to imagine where it is.

40% of voters in the state say they’d be less likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate to only 26% who say it would be an asset. The reality at this point is that Obama turns Republican voters off to a much greater extent than he excites Democrats. That’s reflected in the fact that 83% of Republicans say an Obama endorsement would be a negative with them while only 49% of Democrats say it would be a positive. Independents also respond negatively by a 38/19 margin.

The numbers on an Obama endorsement are perhaps more relevant with undecided voters. Among those who have not yet made up their minds in the Senate race 21% say an Obama endorsement would resonate positively with them while 33% say it would be a turnoff.

The full results are here. According to PPP, 24 percent of Illinois voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, while 52 percent would be less likely.

* And…

In Illinois Durbin is the favorite politician of 41% of voters in the state, followed by Pat Quinn at 10%, and Roland Burris at 6%. Like Pennsylvania the lack of Republicans in major offices in Illinois leaves 42% of voters saying no opinion. Durbin’s tops among Democrats, 60-11 over Quinn, independents, 40-8 over Quinn, and Republicans, 17-12 over Quinn.

* Campaign roundup…

* Obama unlikely to sway many voters in Senate race, poll shows

* Daily Herald: Hitting the campaign trail head-on

* Retired generals disappointed over Kirk’s no-show at meeting

* Senate, governor candidates to speak in B-N

* Quinn says tax hike plan honest, if not popular, and will preserve schools

* Quinn Campaign Wants 7 Debates With GOP’s Brady

* Pantagraph: Brady, others need to give voters specifics

* Why Did SEIU Give $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association?

* Chamber Backs Kinzinger Over Incumbent Halvorson In Illinois

* Rose: The cutback cuts back

* State owes $2.2 billion to feds for unemployment benefits

* ACLU sues to block law making it illegal to record cops

* ACLU challenges Illinois eavesdropping act

* New health insurance plan for the uninsured launches in Illinois

* Illinois to enroll uninsured in new high-risk pool

* State, feds moving to require cleanup of Chicago River for recreation

* Madigan: $12.7 mil. netted in gas tax investigation

* Madigan Charges 6 Gas Station Owners With Tax Evasion

* Appraisals find Thomson Prison worth nearly $220 mil.

17 Comments

Take Cohen seriously or suffer the consequences - And Halvorson fires manager

Thursday, Aug 19, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I talked to subscribers about this topic earlier in the week, but it’s why everybody should take Scott Lee Cohen a whole lot more seriously than they are, including pollsters, who haven’t put his name on the candidate list…

Part of Mr. Cohen’s strategy is to appeal to African-Americans, who generally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.

“If he starts making inroads among blacks…that’s just a nightmare” for Gov. Quinn, said Kent Redfield, a political scientist at the University of Illinois, Springfield. […]

Paul Green, director of the Roosevelt University School of Policy Studies in Chicago, said Mr. Cohen was “an unguided political missile.” But with both major party candidates “running such weak campaigns, if he spends the money he could make a splash,” Mr. Green said.

During a recent campaign stop in Chicago, Mr. Cohen bought breakfast for 30 African-American ministers and told them Democrats had taken their support for granted. Mr. Cohen supports proposals to bring more Wal-Mart Stores Inc. outlets and manufacturing jobs to black neighborhoods. “Give me a chance,” he told the ministers.

Pastor Andre Smith of First Bethel Church said he was impressed. “I believe everybody should get a second chance,” he said.

Gov. Pat Quinn’s numbers with African-Americans are flat-out horrible. Yes, African-Americans always break late, but these numbers are pretty unprecedented. The Public Policy Polling survey had Quinn at just 41 percent among blacks, with 44 percent undecided. The Rasmussen poll’s crosstabs were even weirder…

In the August edition of [the Illinois Chambers’] campaign-related newsletter, The Political Upside, the headline of an item about a recent Rasmussen poll was that the “crosstabs,” specific details about certain groups, “chew into Brady’s 13 point lead over Quinn.”

In the Rasmussen poll, the crosstabs illustrated a surprising amount of black support — 30 percent — for Brady, the newsletter states.

“Illinois Chamber sources believe that this particular demographic’s 30 percent level of support for an Illinois Republican is extraordinarily high and that in reality Brady’s lead hovers around the 5-6 percent range,” the newsletter said. The poll, which surveyed 750 likely voters Aug. 9, had Brady at 48 percent, Gov. Pat Quinn at 35 percent, with the rest for another candidate or undecided.

Rasmussen had Quinn getting 44 percent among blacks - very similar to the PPP poll. 8 percent were with “some other candidate” and 18 percent were undecided.

Despite the Chamber’s analysis, I don’t think this race is as close as they believe. Scott Lee Cohen is a big reason for that, as is, to a lesser extent, Rich Whitney. We’ll see.

By the way, Alexi Giannoulias’ numbers among African-American voters follow the more traditional lines. According to PPP, he’s getting 69 percent, with 22 percent undecided and 9 for Republican Mark Kirk.

* In other campaign news, Democrat Debbie Halvorson has fired her campaign manager…

Halvorson (D-Crete) decided this week to replace Travis Worl, who had worked on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, in favor of someone else, spokesman Ryan Vanderbilt said. Halvorson has not yet hired a new campaign manager.

“Travis is no longer with our campaign,” Vanderbilt said. “He did a good job getting everything up and running to put us in a position to win going into November. But now, as we look forward to the election and Labor Day, a decision was made to bring in someone new.”

Halvorson, who is nearing the end of her first term in Congress, is facing Republican Adam Kinzinger in the Nov. 2 election.

Worl did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Worl made news earlier this summer after questioning in an e-mail whether Kinzinger had exaggerated his role as a temporary U.S. Air Force Special Operations pilot. A member of the Wisconsin National Guard, Kinzinger has flown more than 100 special operations missions and Halvorson’s campaign focused on his use of “is” versus “was” on a Web site to describe his special forces status.

They fired the guy with no replacement in mind just before Labor Day? Man, there’s trouble in that camp.

* More campaign news…

* Schoenburg: Taxpayer-funded Schock mailing pushes envelope

* Schilling seeks debates with Hare

* Quinn comes out against mosque at Ground Zero

* Quinn doesn’t support mosque near ground zero

* SJ-R: Voters need budget details — and soon

50 Comments

« NEWER POSTS