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Behind the head to heads
Wednesday, Aug 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Rasmussen has a new US Senate poll out that doesn’t give us a lot of new news in the head to heads. Results in brackets are from previous Ras polls…
“Leaners” tie this up at 45-45, with 3 percent for “other” and 8 unsure. We really need to get those other candidates included in these polls. I called Rasmussen yesterday, so we’ll see what they do next time. * This topline is interesting, if not terribly surprising…
Crosstabs show that 58 percent of moderates, 50 percent of independents, 67 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Giannoulias supporters put economic issues at the top of their list. That number is less for Republicans (41), Kirk supporters (43) and conservatives (45) because “fiscal issues” rate higher than average. Kirk has only recently begun talking about the economy, and now you can clearly see why. This whole “mob banker” thing is a lot of fun, but it isn’t helping him move upwards. * More unsurprising toplines…
* TPM PollTracker… * Also, if you’re gonna quote polls, you probably should at least glance at the relevant crosstabs…
From PPP’s latest xtabs… ![]() Yes, Jones could make a slight move if he becomes known. Yes, it is a concern for Giannoulias. Yes, there’s a long time to go. But Jones is not even showing up on the radar screen yet. Rasmussen’s xtabs have 5 percent of African-American voters leaning towards “other.” There are indeed plenty of undecideds, but without cash and a strategy, it’s gonna be tough to eat into Giannoulias’ numbers, particularly with Obama on his side. * Other campaign stories…
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*** UPDATED x1 - Halvorson downgraded *** Rasmussen: Brady ahead 46-37
Tuesday, Aug 24, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Rasmussen’s latest, with previous Ras polls in brackets…
For the first time, they also included “leaners” in the poll. In other words, those who say they are undecided are asked whom they are leaning towards. The margin narrows a wee bit…
It really would be nice if Rasmussen started polling the other candidates in this race. From the pollster…
From far away, maybe it looks that way. I still don’t see it up close, though. Back to the pollster…
* A check of the crosstabs shows Quinn doing quite well with African-Americans. The Illinois Chamber, you may recall, claimed that once those black voter numbers firmed up for Quinn, this could be a 5-6 point race. But with 75 percent black support, it’s still a 9-point race. And Scott Lee Cohen hasn’t ramped up his campaign yet. Quinn’s black support rises to 80 percent with leaners, which accounts for just under half of Quinn’s one-point narrowing because Brady picks up an additional point among African-Americans and rises to 10. * Methodology…
*** UPDATE *** Rothenberg has the governor’s race at “Toss-up/Tilt Republican,” but he’s also just moved Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson to “Pure toss-up” status…
Other pundit ratings on this race, from Halvorson’s opponent…
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