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Poll: Clinton up by 29, Trump ahead by 17

Thursday, Feb 25, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From We Ask America…

Our Illinois Democratic Primary presidential poll shows Clinton with a formidable 57% to 28% lead over Bernie Sanders. Clinton’s only relative weakness was among Collar County Democrats where she leads Sanders 49% to 43%. As we’ve seen elsewhere, African American voters strongly favor Clinton 69% to 14% over Sanders, although the Vermont Senator shows much stronger support among Hispanic and Asian voters.

In the Illinois Republican Primary, Trump leads with 38% over Marco Rubio (21%) and Ted Cruz (16%). Rubio has surged over the last three-four days…I’m not sure if it will last. Trump wins consistently in all four Illinois regions, and holds a 9 percentage point stronger lead among males than females (43% to 34%). Trump’s strongest numbers stem from the 1-of-3 GOP primary voters, and there’s speculation that some who haven’t voted in primaries in the past will come out for him. We’ll see.

* Regardless of the results, keep in mind that presidential races at this stage can change pretty quickly. If Rubio continues surging, then maybe he’ll make it close. But I’d rather be the Trump campaign than any of the others right now.

Clinton’s numbers are about the same as other Illinois polls we’ve seen, while Sanders’ numbers are worse. Maybe that’s because of Clinton’s Nevada win, which gave her some momentum. African-American voters tend to break late, which could also help explain it. But, whatever the case, primaries are not easy to poll, so never bet your life on any one result.

* Full results and crosstabs…

* Democratic poll

* Republican poll

* Related…

* Sanders to hold rally Thursday at Chicago State University

  67 Comments      


The next shoe drops on McCann’s head

Thursday, Feb 25, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember when I asked yesterday about the next shoe to drop? Bernie has it

In addition to campaign-paid mileage reimbursements received by state Sen. SAM McCANN, R-Plainview, during his time in the General Assembly, he has received more than $19,600 in mileage reimbursements from the state since entering the Senate in 2011.

A State Journal-Register story Feb. 14 detailed the payments McCann received from his campaign that included $38,000 in just the past year, which at a reimbursement rate of 57.5 cents per mile would mean he drove more than 66,000 miles in that year.

That story, which also included “grouped expenditures” that McCann took from his campaign fund, has become fodder for anti-McCann ads being run by Liberty Principles PAC, an independent expenditure group whose chairman and treasurer is Chicago radio talk-show host DAN PROFT. The group has spent more than $1.3 million to help McCann’s opponent in the March 15 primary, BRYCE BENTON of Springfield.

A check of state records shows that McCann also submitted vouchers for state mileage payments totaling more than $19,600, with amounts ranging from $4,755 in 2011 to $2,594 for part of 2015. The reimbursement rate was at 51 cents per mile for part of 2011, but has mostly been at 39 cents per mile.

Can he really be logging all those miles?

* Bernie also cribbed my poll

Meanwhile, Capitol Fax reported that a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll done Tuesday of 645 registered Republican voters put the 50th Senate District March 15 primary race at about 43 percent for Benton, 41.4 percent for McCann and 15.6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.86 percent.

It was likely GOP voters, but the ads are obviously working.

  96 Comments      


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