* Rasmussen’s latest poll shows that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias continues to trend slightly upwards, while Republican Mark Kirk has stopped slipping, at least for now. Previous results from Rasmussen’s polls conducted July 7, June 7, April 28, April 5, March 8 and February 3 are in brackets…

Kirk: 41 [39%, 42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 43 [40%, 39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Other: 6 [9%, 7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 10 [12%, 12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

From the pollster…

Kirk carries 74% of conservative voters in the state, while 79% of liberals support Giannoulias. Moderates favor the Democrat by a 47% to 35% margin.

Forty-four percent (44%) say Kirk’s views are in the mainstream, but 30% say they are extreme. Forty-two percent (42%) view Giannoulias in the mainstream, while 33% say he’s extreme.

Seven percent (7%) of Illinois voters hold a Very Favorable opinion of Giannoulias, while 25% view him Very Unfavorably.

Kirk is viewed Very Favorably by 10% and Very Unfavorably by 14%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Kirk holds a modest lead among male voters, and Giannoulias has a similar lead among women. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the Republican by nearly 20 points.

That big lead among independents is crucial and means that Kirk has a very good shot at winning this one, despite the toplines. Illinois has lots more Democrats than Republicans, but they’re not a firm majority. Independents are a must-get. But moderates are also very important, and Giannoulias’ lead is important there.

* More results…

* Is Mark Kirk more ethical, less ethical, or about as ethical as most politicians?

10% More ethical
21% Less ethical
50% About as ethical
19% Not sure

* Is Alexi Giannoulias more ethical, less ethical or about as ethical as most politicians?

8% More ethical
31% Less ethical
44% About as ethical
17% Not sure

* Is Rod Blagojevich more ethical, less ethical, or about as ethical as most politicians?

2% More ethical
59% Less ethical
32% About as ethical
7% Not sure

Almost half say Giannoulias is less ethical than most politicos or aren’t sure. The Kirk camp will do its best to push that up as high as possible with the “mob banker” stuff. Whether it’ll work this year is another story, however.

And, let’s all hope that none of that crazy 2 percent who think Rod Blagojevich is more ethical than most is sitting on the jury.

* More results…

* Would it be more accurate to describe Mark Kirk’s views as mainstream or extreme?

44% Mainstream
30% Extreme
27% Not sure

* Would it be more accurate to describe Alexi Giannoulias’s views as mainstream or extreme?

42% Mainstream
33% Extreme
25% Not sure

* Methodology…

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 26, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

* TPM’s poll-tracker…

Thoughts?

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