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Poll: Big support for cig tax hike, most oppose service cuts & income tax hike

Friday, Apr 16, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Results of a new poll on raising the cigarette tax by a buck a pack has generated some coverage…

Of the 502 people surveyed by the Illinois Coalition Against Tobacco, 74 percent said they support raising taxes on cigarettes by $1 — from 98 cents per pack to $1.98 per pack.

Despite the public support, a measure to raise cigarette taxes is about 10 House votes shy of approval, said Rep. Karen Yarbrough, D-Maywood.

* I asked for the toplines and received all but one of them. Check out the “right track/wrong track” numbers when respondents are asked how they “think things in your area of Illinois are generally headed”…

Right Direction 23%
Wrong Track 64
Don’t Know 13

That ain’t great. Sure would like to see the regional crosstabs.

* Next question: “Now, as you may know, Illinois is facing a significant budget deficit, estimated to be over thirteen billion dollars. I’m going to read several options that have been proposed to help address the budget deficit. After each one that I read, please tell me if you would Support or Oppose that option to help reduce the state’s budget deficit…

[Click the pic for a larger image.]

Notice that huge majorities are opposed to service cuts and an income tax hike, but 70 percent say they could back increasing the tobacco tax.

* There ain’t much downside for candidates on this issue, either. Here are the results from a question about whether respondents would be more or less likely “to support candidates for state or local public office in Illinois if you knew that they supported raising the Illinois Cigarette tax by one dollar per pack”…

Much More Likely 15
Somewhat More Likely 14
Somewhat Less Likely 3
Much Less Likely 8
No Difference 58
Don’t Know 2

* And here’s what happened when they were asked how they wanted the money from a new cigarette tax to be spent. Again, click the pic for a larger image…

* Some internals from the cig tax hike question via the pollster’s memo…

• Support for the tax is similar in all areas of the State, including Chicago (76% support), the Cook County suburbs (72% support), the collar counties (75% support), North (74% support) and South (70% support).

• Voters < age 50 (74% support) and age 50+ (73% support) hold similar opinions. This remains consistent among men and women, with a noticeable upward spike in support among women under age fifty (80% support, 70% strongly).

• Support is high among white voters (71%) and minorities (82%).

• Those with college degrees are strongly in favor of the tax (79% support) while support is high among those without degrees (69%). Those making < $75k per year are as supportive as all voters (71%) while those making more than $75k per year are strongly in favor of it (81%).

• Republicans (71% support) and Independent (68%) voters are solidly in favor of the $1 per pack increase, with Democrats even more supportive (81%). This pattern of strong support among partisans remains consistent among liberals (76% support), moderates (79% support) and conservatives (68% support).

• Even four of ten (42%) smokers support the tax. [Emphasis added.]

That last point is kinda fascinating.

* 80 percent said they supported “taxing other tobacco products such as cigars and smokeless, or chew tobacco at comparable rates as cigarettes” and 77 percent said they were concerned “about smoking and other tobacco use among young people in Illinois.

* Methodology…

The Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids commissioned the survey. Fako & Associates, Inc., of Lisle, Illinois conducted the survey by telephone on April 5 - 7, 2010 using professional interviewers. F&A interviewed a random sample of 502 registered voters that are likely to vote in the November 2, 2010 General Election in the State of Illinois. A strict screening process was used to ensure that only likely voters in the November 2010 General Election participated in the survey. The interviews lasted an average of 10 minutes. Scientific sampling techniques using a listing of registered voters were used to give all registered voters living in a telephone-equipped household within the State an equal chance of being interviewed. The interviews were conducted in proportion to gender and regional shares of the vote based on past election data and known demographics. Weighting was applied to age to bring this group closer into proportion with known demographics. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.32% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if the survey were replicated the results would be consistent for 95 out of 100 cases. The margin of error is higher among the various sub-groups.

Thoughts?

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What’s Quinn thinking? Zorn explains

Tuesday, Apr 13, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Eric Zorn makes an important point about polling in his column today. He notes that four years ago, much like this time around, polls showed Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich trailing his Republican opponent, Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.

The big difference between then and now was that Blagojevich began running TV ads in mid April bashing Topinka…

Less than one month after the primary, he was on the air with a series of “What’s she thinking?” TV commercials attacking Topinka’s opposition to a hike in the minimum wage and to an assault weapons ban.

Even though Topinka was fairly well-known to voters — three-term state treasurer, suburban social moderate — the Blagojevich campaign defined her as an erratic extremist before she could define herself, thus forcing her to play defense through the summer and fall.

Those ads tanked JBT’s numbers for good. She dropped to ten points behind and never moved any closer. Another difference between then and now, Zorn rightly notes, is that Gov. Quinn doesn’t have the sort of campaign apparatus that RRB had back then. He’s also lacking Blagojevich’s giant pile of cash…

But when Quinn does finally hit the campaign trail, he’ll do so with far less money than Blagojevich had, in part because of new state ethics laws that block major state contractors from filling political coffers. Though updated campaign-finance reports aren’t yet available, we know Quinn entered the last few weeks of the primary season with a cash balance of about $3 million, compared to an estimated $14 million Blagojevich had heading into his lightly contested 2006 primary. Blagojevich ended up spending $27 million on his re-election bid.

Zorn adds more context on his blog…

Topinka and Blagojevich raised nearly identical amounts of money during the stretch run, roughly $4.9 million, but Blagojevich had more than $12.2 million in the bank at the end of June, compared to $1.5 million for Topinka.

Quinn likely spent every dime he had in the primary. And because he has angered the public employee unions to no end, he doesn’t have access to their cash right now when he may need it most. And then there’s this…

Furthermore, 2006 was a good year for Democrats overall — they picked up six seats in the U.S. Senate and 30 in the U.S. House, running against the party of a Republican president with sagging approval ratings. Today, every projection has 2010 being a good year for Republicans — they figure to pick up dozens of seats running against the party of a Democratic president with sagging approval ratings.

2006 was a great year for the Illinois Senate Democrats, who picked up a super majority. Speaker Madigan refused to go on offense, believing Blagojevich would be a drag on the ticket. Blagojevich’s close pal Tony Rezko was, indeed, indicted just days before the election, but Madigan was dead wrong about the environment and he picked up just one seat. That inaction could cost him the House this fall if the Republicans manage to pull off another landslide year, but I digress.

Quinn is essentially fiddling while Rome burns.

* Other campaign stuff…

* Ill. State Rep Jumps in Chicago Aldermanic Race

* Trying to read the tea leaves: The Tea Party, the incipient movement that claims to be committed to reining in what they perceive as big government, appears to be motivated by more than partisanship and ideology. Approximately 45% of Whites either strongly or somewhat approve of the movement. Of those, only 35% believe Blacks to be hardworking, only 45% believe Blacks are intelligent, and only 41% think that Blacks are trustworthy.

* Bundle of Republicans seek national committeman’s job

* Township Democrats spurn corrupt post

* Kirk holds fundraising edge on Giannoulias

* Giannoulias tries to change focus from Broadway Bank

* Giannoulias seeks distance from Broadway Bank controversy

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