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Polling charts, exit polling and electoral predictions

Monday, Feb 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Polling charts can be very helpful in analyzing campaigns. These are from pollster.com. Their javascript is not working properly, so I’m using screen caps. Click the pics for larger images.

Let’s start with the Democratic governor’s race…

The trend is obviously not the governor’s friend. The question now is whether he’s stopped the bleeding. Still, his job performance numbers with undecideds are just awful. Very tough to overcome. And his campaign mechanism has imploded in recent days as Quinn has taken complete charge of his schedule and his message.

The Republicans…

For me, the question here is whether McKenna can get himself over the top. He has the bucks and the message, but he’s still a relatively unknown quantity to regular Repubs. Notice how everyone is moving up but Jim Ryan, who sat on his big lead, didn’t raise enough money and could pay for those mistakes tomorrow.

Also, I just got a call from the Adam A campaign. Apparently Rush Limbaugh just called him “the Scott Brown of Illinois.” He’s been getting a ton of late help from conservative media the past few days, but, as I said, it’s late. The Right was so outraged by Mark Kirk that they ignored a guy who had a shot.

…Adding… I just listened to the audio file of Rush’s show. He didn’t mention Adam A by name. Probably because he didn’t know how to pronounce it.

* The Senate Democratic primary…

That downward trend line for Giannoulias and the steep upward line for Hoffman are what has the Giannoulias campaign more than a bit freaked right now. He’s still got the lead, but it’s dwindling and there are still lots of undecideds.

Nate Silver thinks it’s a two-person race…

The race is for all intents and purposes between Giannoulias and Hoffman; Jackson, a former communications spokeswoman for Rod Blagojevich, will probably be limited to 15-20 percent of the vote, mostly coming from Chicago’s predominately Afrian-American South Side. Hoffman, however, has gradually been creeping up on Giannoulias, the front-runner.

And the Republicans…

No analysis necessary.

* Oh, goodie. Exit polling. I’m not sure how scientific this will be, but I’ll be watching tomorrow. From a press release…

The Chicago Current, Chicago’s political journal, will conduct exit polling for the Feb. 2 Illinois primary election. Voting data from polling places across Cook County will be collected to provide media outlets and the public with accurate trends to gauge voters’ preferences.

Analysis of the data will be available throughout Tuesday at www.chicagocurrent.com. Data will include trends for the Democratic Illinois Senate and gubernatorial races, as well as for the Cook County Board president’s race.

“Our study will show which candidates are trending upward or downward throughout the day, while providing statistical analysis of which way voters are leaning,” says Current editor Geoff Dougherty. […]

Current reporters will be following the race throughout the day, and reporting on Twitter, using the hashtag #ILVote.

Fun.

* Bernie Schoenburg has posted his statewide predictions, which were compiled by Eric Zorn…

* GOVERNOR: Hynes, Dillard
* U.S. SENATOR: Giannoulias, Kirk
* LT .GOV. Turner./ Murphy
* COMPTROLER . Miller/Topinka
* TREAS: Kelly (Dan Rutherford is running unopposed for the GOP)

Russ Stewart and Tom Roeser have also posted their predictions and my intern Dan Weber has compiled them for easy viewing…

* Russ Stewart:
Gov - Hynes, McKenna
Senate - Hoffman, Kirk
10th - Seals, Dold
Cook County Prez - Preckwinkle, Keats
DuPage County Chmn - Pankau
Lt Gov - Link, Murphy
Treasurer - Oberman
Comptroller - Topinka, Miller

* Tom Roeser:
Gov - Hynes, Dillard
Senate - Hoffman, Patrick Hughes
10th - Hamos, Friedman
Cook County Prez - Stroger, Garrido
DuPage County Chmn - Cronin
Lt Gov - Link, Plummer
Treasurer -Oberman
Comptroller - Dodge, Krislov

Your predictions?

* Zorn also has a long list of newspaper endorsements in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

86 Comments

GOP: “McKenna compounded one ethical misstep with another” - And “Adam A” says he’s “surging”

Monday, Feb 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC5 took a look at the complete internal ethics committee report by the Illinois Republican Party and found some interesting nuggets…

“Andrew McKenna compounded one ethical misstep with another,” the report said.

But what McKenna didn’t specifically address in that statement is that when he presented the poll to his party’s central committee in June 2009, he failed to mention to them that his name had been included at all. […]

The report also seems to back up candidate Jim Ryan’s assertion last week that McKenna failed, to some extent, to cooperate with the ethics committee’s investigation. In the report, the committee chairman noted that on Dec. 22, 2009, McKenna’s campaign manager was twice asked to clarify some questions that had come up, or even just to let them know he wanted more time to respond. He was given until 4 p.m. on Dec. 24. But when the report was printed on Dec. 28, he had done neither.

The full report is here.

* He doesn’t say who did the poll, when the poll was done, or how it was done, but Gateway Pundit blogger Jim Hoft claims that Adam Andrzejewski is surging…

In the final days of this primary campaign Adam Andrzejewski is surging in the polls. He has closed the gap from 9 points down to 2 points in the last 5 days with two days to go before the primary election.

Take it for what it’s worth. I’ve sent an e-mail to Hoft asking for an explanation. Andrzejewski also had this to say to the American Spectator…

“We feel we’re either within the margin of error or leading the race right now,” said the Tea Party candidate, adding that he senses “panic” among his rivals in the crowded primary field. “We think 22 percent wins the race. Anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000 votes — in a state of 13 million — will win the nomination. The bar is that low.”

I think he may do better than expected. He raised $752K during the last half of 2009, mostly in loans to himself. He’s reported raising $61K since January 1st, but he’s also claiming to be taking in lots of smaller contributions which wouldn’t show up on A-1 reports. In a normal year, that’s not enough to win. Jim Ryan has raised less than that, but Jim Ryan is far better known than AA. Still, in a year like this, who the heck knows.

That, by the way, was a classic pre-election “cover your behind” story.

* Something to ponder…

[Sen. Kirk Dillard] owes three campaign supporters a total of $634,814.

That’s a very large debt. Dillard has said he won’t raise money after he takes office, so when will he raise the cash to pay off those loans? Before the fall campaign? Probably not. He’ll need every dime he can get. After the campaign and before he’s sworn in? More likely, but that’s when an administration is put together - not a great time to be raising money if you’re supposed to be Mr. Ethics.

* Related…

* Small primary turnout expected: “I’m predicting a 16 percent or so turnout,” said Winnebago County Clerk Margie Mullins. “That’s what we had four years ago.”

* Early line sees light turnout for Tuesday’s primary: [Lake County’s] Helander said she is hoping for a 30 percent turnout in her county compared to a 22 percent turnout in 2006, but the current totals are not overly encouraging.

* Illinois Primary on Tuesday: Is Obama’s State up for Grabs?

* Could Illinois give Obama another setback?

* PJ Star View: Be careful about drawing conclusions from Massachusetts: From where we sit, Republicans who want to duplicate this result and Democrats who want to prevent it need to rally behind candidates who can prove their ability to work together. In a nation facing enormous challenges, many Americans are sick of watching those they elect do nothing about them.

* Ill. candidates look to make good last impression

* Tired of dirty politics? Cast your vote

* Angry? Go make history

* Be sure to head to the polls for Tuesday’s election

* A vote for Illinois’ future

* Voice of The Southern: Your state, your decisions - vote on Tuesday

* Problems don’t deter gubernatorial candidates

* Republican candidates for gov. stump for votes

* Illinois gubernatorial candidate Dillard says ‘we must clean up our state’ during visit to Quincy

* Dillard stops in region to make his pitch for office

* Brady says McKenna should come clean on ethics violation

* Lots of interest in lieutenant governor post

* A look at GOP lt. gov. candidates

* Comptroller candidates vow fiscal responsibility

29 Comments

Evening campaign wrap-up - Hendon; WVON, Daley, Brown, Rasmussen, Simon

Thursday, Jan 28, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I heard a Rickey Hendon for lt. governor radio ad while waiting on the WVON debate to start today and couldn’t stop laughing. If you do nothing else tonight, you absolutely, positively must listen to this…

I’m speechless, but it’s destined to be a classic.

* ABC7’s Charles Thomas covered the WVON debate and this comment was right on the money…

Dan Hynes should get credit for showing up. The moderator, Cliff Kelly, is an unabashed supporter of Pat Quinn.

Hynes absolutely had to go to that debate. If he skipped out, he would’ve been universally bashed for not showing up. Hynes lost that round, but he didn’t make any big mistakes which could hurt him in the closing days, so it wasn’t disastrous. Quinn did a great job. If he governed and campaigned the last year as well as he performed today, he’d be 30 points ahead right now. I’m not saying it was too little, too late, but the the ticking by the countdown clock is deafening.

* I don’t know if Mayor Daley was thinking about Dan Hynes’ income tax proposal or not when he spoke to the press today, and I’m not gonna try to guess, but the mayor’s statement was quite interesting…

Chicago has been playing defense lately because of the exodus of trade shows at McCormick Place. But it looks like Mayor Daley is preparing to make the switch to offense.

Daley said Thursday he’s coming after businesses in the Pacific Northwest, emboldened by what he considers Oregon’s head-scratching decision to approve higher taxes on big corporations and big wage-earners.

“What happened in Oregon is not good news for Oregon. They believe that anybody who makes $125,000 or more [annually] or businesses or anyone who makes $250,000 — they’re gonna start taxing them. They call them ‘rich people,’ ” the mayor said.

“I’ve always thought America stands for [rewarding success]. You finish high school. You work hard, go to college and you hope to succeed in life. I never knew it’s a class war—that those who succeed in life are the ones that have to bear all the burden. I never realized that. It will be a whole change in America that those who succeed and work hard [that] we’re gonna tax ‘em more than anyone else.”

Daley’s words will come back to haunt the Statehouse if - if - Hynes wins the primary and tries to push through his constitutional amendment for a graduated income tax. The idea polled well here a couple of years ago (well over 70 percent support), but the political watchword for this year is: Terrified. Daley opposition would be disastrous. More on that another time.

More about the Oregon vote here.

* ABC7’s report on Jim Ryan’s morning presser on Andy McKenna and the GOP primary is here.

* Dorothy Brown is suing Terry O’Brien…

Cook County Board hopeful Dorothy Brown is fighting mad about a statement made in an opponent’s campaign ad – and she’s taking the matter to court.

Brown, who is running for board president, announced she’s pressing a lawsuit that accuses Metropolitan Water Reclamation District President Terrence O’Brien of slanderering her in a campaign ad earlier this week.

The suit, filed today in Cook County circuit court, targets O’Brien, his campaign committee, and the committee’s chairman Tom Caplice. It seeks $250,000 in actual damages and $1 million in punitive damages, says attorney Adam Lasker, who represents Brown.

The O’Brien campaign sought to center attention on reports of funny business at the clerk’s office, saying in a statement, “Stories about Clerk Brown pocketing cash from her employees have been in the headlines for years now. Frankly voters are fed up with political corruption and they need to know that Clerk Brown cannot be trusted to clean up Todd Stroger’s mess.”

* As with Rasmussen’s gubernatorial poll, I don’t put a whole lot of stock in any survey with just 300 respondents, and you shouldn’t either. It’s OK for a tracking poll, but not a stand-alone. Anyway, here are Rasmussen’s latest results, with PPP’s results followed by the Tribune’s results in parentheses…

Giannoulias 31 (32, 34)

Hoffman 23 (20, 16)

Jackson 23 (18, 19)

Some other candidate 9 (N/A)

Not sure 24 (27, 13)

Besides the low respondent numbers, it’s the height of absurdity to ask about “some other candidate” at this point in the campaign. Just give respondents the names, for crying out loud. The “other” candidates were polling at one and two percent in the PPP and Trib polls. That questioning screws up the results. This poll is just not reliable.

* Media coverage of the Giannoulias bank troubles is starting to heat up a bit. AP…

Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias (jeh-NOO’-lee-us) won’t provide details about whether his decisions contributed to his family bank’s financial problems.

The Chicago Democrat says there will be plenty of time for that conversation later, although the primary election is just five days away.

Tribune…

After today’s news conference, a spokeswoman said that Giannoulias doesn’t know which loans may have contributed to the bank’s problems because he hasn’t been involved in the bank’s day-to-day operations since he left.

Giannoulias quickly organized the news conference to answer criticisms raised by U.S. Senate rival David Hoffman, who earlier highlighted the consent order Broadway reached with Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Hoffman said the consent order raises questions about Giannoulias’ experience and what he described as Giannoulias’ inability to accept responsibility for his actions.

“(Broadway Bank’s) decisions, including the decisions at the time he was there as the chief loan officer, are the reason that the bank is in such trouble,” Hoffman said.

Time’s running out fast.

* Meanwhile…

Cheryle Jackson has spent months trying to appeal to women as the lone female candidate in the Democratic U.S. Senate race, and today she picked up a major endorsement that could help her along those lines if she can get the word out.

Jackson’s campaign sent out a fundraising email to supporters authored by Lilly Ledbetter, the now-retired supervisor of a Georgia tire manufacturing plant who sued because her pay was not the same as male supervisors. Almost a year ago, Congress passed and President Barack Obama signed the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.

No offense meant, but who? Yes, I know who Ms. Ledbetter is, but how many others do?

* CQ Rollcall covers the 10th GOP primary…

Even though several members of the Illinois GOP delegation are backing state Rep. Beth Coulson in the 10th district GOP primary, businessman and first-time candidate Bob Dold appears to have the momentum heading into Tuesday’s balloting.

“I think it’s between Bob Dold and Beth Coulson,” said one well-placed Republican in Washington.

Coulson was the early favorite of national Republicans, who viewed her moderate-to-liberal political profile in the state Legislature as in the mold of Rep. Mark Steven Kirk. But poor fundraising has hampered expectations for Coulson, as she has been outraised and outshined by two businessmen in the race — Dold and Dick Green — who have amassed copious amounts of money.

* Adam Andrzejewski’s closer…

* And, finally tonight (at least I hope so), Quinn’s young video genius Simon Edelman is apparently more over-worked than even I thought…

At least they didn’t write something on his forehead.

59 Comments

PPP poll has Giannoulias with eight-point lead over Kirk

Thursday, Jan 28, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This new PPP poll was taken before yesterday’s revelations about the Giannoulias family bank, and that issue (among many others) will certainly be in play this fall. Still, this ain’t insignificant. From a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,062 Illinois voters from January 22nd to 25th with a margin of error of +/-3%…

* Alexi Giannoulias 42
* Mark Kirk 34

* Mark Kirk 37
* David Hoffman 36

* Mark Kirk 38
* Cheryle Jackson 36

From the pollster…

In a reminder that contested primaries can be a good thing Alexi Giannoulias has jumped out to a 42-34 lead over Mark Kirk in the race to be Illinois’ next Senator. When PPP last looked at such a match up in April the two were tied at 35.

The reason for Giannoulias’ ascent is that where he was winning 60% of the Democratic vote last spring he’s now at 72%. As his party’s voters have become more familiar with him over the course of the primary campaign his support from them has increased. Right now he leads 72-7 with Dems while Kirk is up 76-5 with Republicans. Kirk also has a 33-27 lead with independents. It’s close to impossible for a GOP candidate to win statewide in Illinois without at least a double digit lead among independents and a double digit level of crossover support, and right now Kirk isn’t there.

Kirk does lead the other two Democratic candidates, currently trailing Giannoulias in primary polling, by small margins. He’s up 38-36 on Cheryle Jackson and 37-36 on David Hoffman.

These numbers could change a lot between now and November, as none of the candidates are particularly well known yet. Giannoulias and Kirk each have around 50% name recognition, with favorability spreads of 31/19 and 27/22 respectively. Jackson and Hoffman are each known to a third of the electorate or less with breakdowns of 16/17 and 16/11 respectively.

One key thing to look at when Republicans try to win in blue states like Illinois is how the moderates are voting. Scott Brown won their votes in Massachusetts last week, something that has become a very rare occurrence for GOP candidates in the past few election cycles. Right now Giannoulias is ahead of Kirk 45-25 with them. Kirk will have to make some significant in roads there if he’s going to win this fall.

It’s a long way until November, one of the quirks of the Illinois election calendar. But in a month when most of the news for Democrats has been bad this poll stands out as a rare ray of sunshine for the party’s hopes in the Senate.