* Last week, I wondered aloud why Rasmussen Reports didn’t bother to match the two Democratic gubernatorial candidates against Republican frontrunner Jim Ryan. Well, RR has now conducted another poll, and the results aren’t encouraging for Gov. Quinn’s backers…
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds former state Attorney General Jim Ryan leading incumbent Democratic Governor Pat Quinn 46% to 39%. Nine percent (9%) of Illinois voters like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Ryan’s is within two points of Illinois Comptroller Daniel Hynes, who hopes to wrest the Democratic nomination from Quinn. In that match-up, Hynes attracts 42% of the vote while Ryan gets 40%. Seven percent (7%) opt for another candidate. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided.
Quinn and Hynes both polled ahead of the other major Republican contenders last week, although Hynes polled marginally better than Quinn.
Good point from Rasmussen…
It’s important to note that at this stage, the close contest between Quinn and Hynes may be depressing the Democratic vote in match-ups with the Republicans. Once the party selects a gubernatorial candidate in its February 2 primary, supporters of the losing candidate can be expected to begin moving into the winner’s column.
That theory bears fruit in the crosstabs, which I’ll discuss with subscribers tomorrow.
Back to the pollster…
Ryan carries male voters over both Quinn and Hynes. He has a nine-point advantage among female voters against Quinn but loses women by 10 points to Hynes.
Voters not affiliated with either party strongly prefer the Republican over either of the Democrats. […]
In a generic Illinois gubernatorial ballot match-up in October, a Democratic candidate held a 43% to 37% edge over a Republican.
Ryan is viewed more favorably than any other GOP candidate and his favorables are in roughly the same territory as the two Democrats.
Toplines are here. Crosstabs are here.
Methodology…
Illinois Survey of 500 likely Voters conducted December 20, 2009. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
This is a one-day, Sunday poll. There are all sorts of problems with that, but the automated dial is the least of them.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Jim Ryan was at the Daily Herald edit board today and talked about Stu Levine and his own health…
“Stu Levine gave me a lot of money over my entire career,” said Ryan, who also was DuPage County State’s Attorney for three terms. “I thought he did it because he believed in me. He did a lot for me, I didn’t do anything for him except to be his friend.” […]
Ryan went on to say he is anticipating a barrage of attacks in the final weeks of the campaign about Levine from others in the seven-candidate primary race.
“I’m not going to cower,” he said. “If people think I’m going to back down because of that, they are wrong.” […]
Ryan also talked his health Monday. The 63-year-old battled non-Hodgkin’s large cell lymphoma cancer three times, most recently during his first campaign for governor eight years ago.
“I think I’m healthy or I wouldn’t do this,” Ryan said. “If that changes, you will know because I will probably won’t stay in the race.”