* Barack Obama won Illinois last year with about 61 percent of the vote. After he was inaugurated, his approval rating here shot up into the stratosphere. Now, it’s down to about where his election totals were, according to a Chicago Tribune poll, which has him at 59 percent job approval and 33 percent disapproval.

A Rasmussen Report poll earlier this month had the president’s approval here at 56 percent and his disapproval at 42. So, he’s actually doing better in the Trib poll than in the Rasmussen poll.

From the Tribune…

Obama’s standing with home-state voters could create problems for Illinois Democrats, if it continues into next year’s general election. Democratic officials have frequently cited their connections to and affinity for the president to try to offset the political fallout from the arrest and removal from office of disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who faces federal corruption charges.

That’s quite an overstatement. The trend obviously isn’t favorable at the moment, but he was at an unsustainable high at the start of the year. The fall was entirely predictable.

* Everybody wants to believe, it seems, that 2010 will be like 1994. There are some eerie similarities, but keep in mind that Bill Clinton tried and failed to pass his national health care plan during the election year. People freaked out, pretty much like they are now, and didn’t have time to settle down. If Obama can get that off the table in the next few months by passing something there will be a long breathing space before November.

From the Tribune’s poll on Obama’s health plan…

About one-third think any health proposal will pay for abortions — even as lawmakers have stripped that measure from key bills wending their way through Congress. And one in five think the health plan will make “end-of-life” determinations for elderly patients, often referred to as “death panels” by opponents of Obama’s health-care reform proposals. This is not the case.

Graphic…

They ain’t exactly siding with the Republicans, either.

* Back to the job approval…

Among the potentially troubling signs for Democrats that surfaced in the survey was the fact that only about half of voters who describe themselves as independents approved of Obama’s job performance. Illinois has voted Democratic in recent elections, but independents remain a key swing block.

Additionally, 58 percent of independent voters believed that Obama’s handling of the economy had done little to help the job picture in a state that has seen unemployment rise from 6.7 percent since the presidential election to 10.5 percent in July. On health-care reform, 53 percent of independent voters disapproved of Obama’s actions. […]

The poll found Obama’s job approval remains strongest in his home base of Chicago at 85 percent, among Democrats at 91 percent, and among African-Americans at 94 percent. Voters outside the Chicago area lean slightly more toward dissatisfaction with his job performance, and he has the support of a narrow 52 percent majority of white voters.

The Tribune refuses to post crosstabs, so we’re supposed to just trust their analysis. It’s a maddening habit, but they’re the Tribune.

Thoughts?

Please, try to stay civil. National politics brings out the worst in people. Do your utmost to remain above the fray. As always, resist posting regurgitated national talking points. They’re boring and stupid, for the most part. And try to keep it focused on Illinois.

Thanks.

…Adding… Progress Illinois makes a couple of good points…

The Tribune did not release the survey’s cross tabs, so we can’t see the exact figure Pearson is referring to here. (Does “about half” mean slightly more than 50 percent? Slightly less?)

But it’s worth noting that, according to Illinois exit polls, 55 percent of self-described “Independents” supported Obama last November, compared to 43 percent for John McCain. Dropping a few percentage points is hardly definitive, let alone “potentially troubling.”