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A very bad case of whiplash

Wednesday, Jul 29, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Giddy clearly got out way too far over his skis

One of the Illinois GOP’s premiere fundraisers has called on U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., to abandon his re-election race, saying it likely is unwinnable. The statement is spurring a flurry of phone calls and activity among worried Republicans.

In a development that could help determine which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2016 elections, veteran GOP fundraiser Ron Gidwitz said in an interview today that though Kirk is “a patriot and an accomplished public servant,” he will be hobbled by a series of recent verbal gaffes that have undermined public confidence in his ability to serve.

“His misstatements put him and the Illinois Republican Party in too much of a defensive position” in what remains a predominantly Democratic state, Gidwitz told me in a phone interview. “I do not believe he will be a U.S. senator in 2017 and, as top of the ticket, he could cause collateral damage (to other Republican candidates). I call on him to step aside and allow other Republicans to seek his seat.”

After I called Kirk’s office for a response, Gidwitz called me back and said he’d like to “retract” the statement. “I’m having second thoughts.” But he confirmed that “I said it. I said it thoughtfully,” and he acknowledged he’d received “quite a number” of high-level phone calls in just an hour. “I don’t want to take the heat I’ll get.”

Apparently, Mr. Gidwitz isn’t the bigshot GOP leader that he and some others thought he was. It used to be that he could use his fundraising base to impact politics. But his money network now looks almost quaint in our current Rauner-Griffin-Uihlein era.

Subscribers know my take on this, so I’ll just leave it at that for now.

* Meanwhile, back to that PPP poll

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Kirk’s job performance?

    Approve 25%
    Disapprove 42%
    Not sure 33%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Duckworth?

    Favorable 34%
    Unfavorable 23%
    Not sure 42%

If the candidates for US Senate next year were Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Tammy Duckworth, who would you vote for?

    Mark Kirk 36%
    Tammy Duckworth 42%
    Not sure 22%

Lots of undecideds, but oof.

* And check this out

If the candidates for President next time were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Jeb Bush, who would you vote for?

    Bernie Sanders 42%
    Jeb Bush 37%
    Not sure 21%

If the candidates for President next time were Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Scott Walker, who would you vote for?

    Bernie Sanders 40%
    Scott Walker 36%
    Not sure 24%

When even Bernie Socialist Sanders is beating every polled GOP contender, you gotta figure no statewide Republican is safe here - or the poll is badly skewed.

  100 Comments      


Uh-oh

Wednesday, Jul 29, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We’ll discuss other results from a recent PPP poll later today. But, first, check this out

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bruce Rauner’s job performance?
Approve 37%
Disapprove 43%
Not sure 20%

Not good.

I think the high undecideds may be that people are still willing to give the new governor a chance before pronouncing final judgement. In cases like this we often see folks move from “approve” to parking in neutral.

* What appears to be driving those negative numbers are high disapproval ratings from Democrats in a Democrat-leading state. If there’s any good news for the governor here, it’s that he is still barely holding on among indies, whites and older voters

* But moderates don’t like him much and neither do women


Discuss.

…Adding… People, you gotta forget about the 2018 election. This poll is about the governor’s ability to lead. He repeatedly claims to have the people on his side against those bad old “machine” Democrats. That’s obviously not true.

I highly doubt the public is with the Democrats, either. It is, as I suggested the other day, “a pox on both your houses” sort of dealio, which is probably the best thing the Dems can hope for right now. Drag him down with them.

The worse Rauner’s numbers get, the more pressure he’ll get from within his party to finally drop his silly demands and cut a deal. Maybe he won’t care about his poll results, but Republican legislators will.

  130 Comments      


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