Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Seals ahead in new poll; Callahan panned; Obama replacements; Etc.

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told you below, a Democratic poll reportedly has Dan Seals leading Republican Congresscritter Mark Kirk by about a point. GOP polls have Kirk up by 4-5 points. A new Research 2000 poll taken for Daily Kos has Seals leading Kirk. Previous 9/30-10/1 Research 2000 poll is in parentheses…

Kirk (R) 43 (44)
Seals (D) 49 (38)

* Toplines…

* Obama vs. McCain…

* But will Seals’ late fundraising improve?

The Highland Park Republican’s campaign also continues to bring in thousands of dollars a day in donations just more than a week out from Election Day. For example, [Kirk’s] campaign took in nearly $40,000 on Wednesday and Thursday alone.

Seals, on the other hand, reported having $269,344 on hand as of Oct. 15. His fundraising since that point as continued to lag Kirk’s, according to 48-hour updates recorded with the Federal Election Commission.

* Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan comes in second place in Politico’s 10 worst ads of the season for her “Daisy” spot…

LBJ had the good sense to run his infamous “Daisy” ad — the one where a little girl picking petals off a flower is annihilated by a nuclear explosion — once. Here’s Democrat Colleen Callahan suggesting Daisy could get wiped out by her opponent’s support of nuke sales to Taiwan.

The ad…

…Adding… Statement from Callahan campaign…

Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional seat, will be canceling scheduled campaign events until further notice in order to be with her family after the death of her mother. Elaine Callahan passed away earlier today at the age of eighty-four.

* CQ Politics has a list of possible Obama replacements…

• Emil Jones, the president of the Illinois state Senate, mentor of Obama, and one of Blagojevich’s rare allies in the legislature. Furthermore, Jones will be without a job at the start of next year; he announced in August that he plans to retire in January, 2009.

• Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who would serve two political purposes. First, her appointment could please the faction of the state legislature led by her father, Michael J. Madigan, who is Illinois House Speaker and a bitter opponent of Blagojevich on spending issues. Second, it would literally get a potential gubernatorial rival out of town.

• Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth, who narrowly lost a House race in 2006.

• Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. , who was an early supporter of Obama and is an experienced congressional hand.

Whatever. If anyone knows what our governor will do on something this important, then please come work for me. We’ll make lots of money.

The story ends with this…

Those pondering the possibilities, though, agree that Blagojevich is unlikely to want any direction from Obama, and unlikely to get it.

“Obama will not step foot into Illinois politics. It’s a minefield,” said Paul Green who is a professor of policy studies at Roosevelt University. “He’d go to Kabul before he’d go to Springfield.”

My own view is that anyone who gets this job is gonna be horribly tainted by the Blagojevich appointment. It’s a political death knell.

* From Lynn Sweet…

Obama Illinois State Director Ken Bennet, who has been keeping a low profile all this time, emerges in a video to ask Illinois Obama backers to flood the neighboring key battleground states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana. Since there is not much Obama work to do in Illinois, the Illinois movable feast has been targeting the adjacent Big Ten states.

The Obama campaign has told me this export of political talent will not drain big House campaigns in Illinois where Democrats have a chance to make red districts blue.

Video…

* Bean shows softer, folksy side in new TV spot…

U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean’s newest TV commercial is a folksy piece that touts her background as a working mom and former business owner.

The 30-second ad, which launched Thursday, is softer than the congresswoman’s first TV piece, a fairly somber spot that focused on the nation’s economic crisis.

Here’s one of the ads…

All of her ads are here.

* Chicago Republicans to counter-program on Election Night

* C3 Presents, the Texas concert promoters who bring Lollapalooza to Grant Park each summer, have been tapped to stage the massive celebration the Obama campaign is planning to hold in Grant Park on election night.

* And the folks pushing for a “Yes” vote on the constitional convention have a new video…

26 Comments

Congressional roundup

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Larry has Charlie Cook’s change of ranking in the 10th CD…

IL-10 Mark Kirk Lean Republican to Toss Up

Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.

Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.

GOP internals reportedly have Kirk up about 4 or 5 points. A Democratic poll is said to have Kirk down by a point. If there’s a big Obama wave, Kirk could very well get swept away. Remember, however, that there are thousands and thousands of ticket-splitters in that district.

* Immigrants appear to be a big part of the electorate in the 10th District…

Immigrants could be a deciding voting bloc in at least eight Illinois congressional races where they make up more than 12 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday by an advocacy group.

Among the tightest races mentioned by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights is the 10th District, where Democrat Dan Seals is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. Experts say the longtime GOP district, which covers portions of Lake and Cook counties, could be trending Democratic based on recent presidential elections.

About 19 percent of the 10th District’s population is made up of foreign-born residents who are now U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old, making them eligible to vote, the report says. The group did not know how many of those individuals are registered to vote on Nov. 4.

* Meanwhile, Repub Martin Ozinga claims new polling shows a tight race, but he released no actual numbers to the Homer Horizon…

Ozinga’s campaign… now claims they are just two points behind Halvorson after they conducted a recent survey. Earlier polls had Halvorson leading by as many as 17 points.

* The AP has a story today about the role of Rod Blagojevich’s image in the Ozinga vs. Debbie Halvorson race…

Republican businessman Marty Ozinga repeatedly has knocked Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, for being a bigwig in Blagojevich’s Democratic-controlled state government. But she has tried to turn the tables on Ozinga - with help from the DCCC.

Halvorson has criticized Ozinga for previously donating to the governor’s campaign - primarily a $10,000 donation in 2005. To drive home the point, the DCCC funded an ad that called Ozinga “the last guy you’d send to clean up Washington” and featured a sheepish picture of Blagojevich.

Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero said the governor is a convenient bad guy for candidates in the heat of an election.

“If people are frustrated, they take it out on the person that they know,” Guerrero said. “He’s the top guy, so it’s him.”

* Ozinga organized a counter-protest to the NRA’s endorsement announcement of Halvorson…

As reporters, NRA members and Halvorson supporters entered the Downers Grove Sportsmen’s Club for Halvorson’s press conference, they had to drive through a group of sign-toting Ozinga supporters.

The NRA was not impressed…

“Debbie has a record; she earned this rating,” said Todd Vandermyde, a legislative liaison with the NRA. “Marty Ozinga can talk all he wants, but (he) is an untested quantity. All we know is what he says.”

* And now Halvorson is mocking Ozinga on guns via a YouTube “ad”…

* In another race, Public Citizen has filed a complaint alleging that Peter Roskam misused the franking privilege…

The House’s franking commission is investigating whether Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) violated franking rules, after the nonprofit group Public Citizen filed a complaint Thursday.

Members are prohibited from sending out official, unsolicited mail 90 days before an election. But Public Citizen alleges that Roskam sent out several brochures to his constituents after the Aug. 6 cutoff. […]

Roskam’s office didn’t immediately return calls for comment Thursday, but a spokeswoman for the Republicans on the House Administration Committee — which oversees the franking commission — said Public Citizen will have to prove that Roskam sent out more than 500 pieces of official mail. If it’s less than 500, the mail would not reach the threshold for a “mass mailing” and thus not fall under franking rules, other than for content. […]

“Right up into October, just weeks before the election, voters have been receiving two-page color mailers paid for by taxpayers, with Peter Roskam’s name splashed all over them,” Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said in a news release. “Taxpayers should not be footing the bill to advertise Roskam’s candidacy for Congress.”

The full complaint is here. [h/t: PI]

The Daily Herald endorsed Roskam’s opponent today.

* Republican Judy Biggert’s Democratic opponent has an unusual new TV ad…

…Adding… Biggert’s TV ads can be found at this link.

* More…

* GOP open seats fertile ground for House Democrats

* Voter registration hits record levels

* Cook County has more than 100,000 early votes

* Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean takes it easy against GOP challenger Steve Greenberg

* GOP challenger blasts Bean on mortgage legislation

* Our pick for Congress: Bean in 8th District

* 6th District campaign gets hotter

* For Congress: Retain Kirk in 10th District

* For Congress: Retain Foster in 14th District

* Our pick: Retain Manzullo in 16th District

* 2 Ill. races get large boosts from ind. groups

* Cong. Manzullo and his 16th CD Democratic Challenger, Robert Abboud on Cable this Saturday and Streaming

12 Comments

Voters may understand more than some think

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* There’s a whole lot to go through in a new, comprehensive poll released by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, but let’s start with the media coverage. Daily Herald…

A new poll of Illinois voters finds support for balancing the state budget through cuts rather than tax increases, just so long as the things voters support aren’t on the chopping block.

And that favorites list includes school funding, police and prisons, state parks, help for the needy and a litany of other big-ticket programs that make up the overwhelming majority of state spending.

The head of the Southern Illinois University think tank that commissioned the statewide poll said the findings show people are uninformed about state finances and unable to grasp the depths of budget problems.

“The public really has no idea what the scale and the scope of this crisis is,” said Mike Lawrence, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.

* Pantagraph…

Absent cuts to those programs, Lawrence, a former Statehouse reporter and top aide to Republican Gov. Jim Edgar, said Illinois will need some kind of tax hike to climb out of its budget hole.

“We need to have a reality check,” Lawrence said.

When it comes to raising money, the poll found that voters supported a graduated income tax, in which wealthier people would be taxed at a higher rate.

But, because such a change in tax policy would likely require a change in the state constitution, it could not serve as a quick fix to the state’s current financial challenges.

* SJ-R…

Sales and income tax increases were soundly rejected, and expanding gambling and selling or leasing state assets such as the lottery were turned down.

Lawrence blames that on voters not understanding how big the budget problem is.

For example, he said respondents want to cut legislative salaries or those of high-paid state employees but noted that would cover only a tiny piece of a budget facing billions of dollars in debt and deficits.

“There’s no painless way out of this budget situation,” Lawrence said. “We need to have a reality check.”

* Now, let’s get to the poll itself.

Voters were asked what sort of value they were getting for state services…

Not great.

* They were also asked whether they thought their area was getting its fair share of state services…

* Respondents rated the quality of several individual state and local services, including these…

* Most have been following the state budget process and don’t like what they’ve seen. Here’s how they rated the efforts…

* The governor’s ratings are abysmal, of course…

* As are the General Assembly’s…

* Senate President Emil Jones’ numbers aren’t good at all…

* Speaker Madigan’s are better, but not exactly spectacular…

* CONCLUSION: Given all that, hostility, is it any wonder that Illinoisans aren’t thrilled with raising their own taxes?

* One more quick point. Here’s what respondents said about revenue generators…

Add income tax brackets with a higher rate for higher incomes? 66% support

Raising the state sales tax? 17% support

Taxing services? 28% support

More gambling? 47% support

Sell or lease the lottery or other assets? 38% support

Discuss.

38 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

Comments Off

Ozinga fading fast? ***UPDATED X2***

Thursday, Oct 23, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Yet another poll shows Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson with a big lead over Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District. This time, it’s from Roll Call…

In the poll, Halvorson, whom Republicans have worked overtime in recent months trying to link with Land of Lincoln’s scandal-plagued Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), was ahead of Ozinga, 50 percent to 37 percent. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace took 9 percent of the vote.

That’s the third poll in the past few days which shows Halvorson around 50 percent.

According to the poll, taken by SurveyUSA, Ozinga’s unfavorables outnumbers his favorables 37-29. The reverse was true for the Democrat Halvorson, 41-27. That’s still kinda high, and it reflects the negative advertising. Halvorson’s attacks appear to be working so far.

* These are also telling numbers…

Halvorson also polled better with self- described members of the opponent’s party. In the survey, Ozinga picked up 77 percent of GOP vote, 5 percent from Democrats and 30 percent of independents. Halvorson took 89 percent of the Democratic vote, 13 percent from Republicans and 44 percent from independents.

The third-party candidate also appears to be helping Halvorson, siphoning off more votes from registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the poll, as well as 20 percent of the vote from self-described independents.

Obama is leading 49-44 in a district President Bush won with 53 percent four years ago. Ozinga is simply under-performing.

* Ozinga appears on a congressional Republican “death list” of candidates who have little chance of winning. From US News & World Report’s political blog..

A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1″ finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.”

Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8.

Oof.

* And Halvorson is getting a big boost in this south suburban, exurban and rural district from the NRA…

Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, running for Congress in a Republican-leaning south suburban district, is shooting for support from gun owners.

Halvorson plans to announce an endorsement today from the National Rifle Association.

“When her party leaders pressed an anti-gun agenda, Halvorson pushed back,” Halvorson quotes the NRA saying in a news release.

* PI has posted Halvorson’s latest TV ad, which bashes both Ozinga and Rod Blagojevich…

* Meanwhile… Oops…

A Democratic state representative from Chicago who appears in a television ad for Republican state Rep. AARON SCHOCK’s congressional campaign says she didn’t think her actions would tip the balance in a central Illinois district she believes is “very Republican.”

“I honestly thought I would not get a phone call on this because who the heck knows who I am in Peoria?” said Rep. SUSANA MENDOZA, who in addition to being a House member, works for the city of Chicago as project coordinator with the department of planning and development.

She also didn’t know something that is becoming more apparent — that U.S. Sen. DICK DURBIN of Springfield is making a strong effort for the Democratic candidate in that race, COLLEEN CALLAHAN of Kickapoo.

Durbin probably ain’t a happy camper right now.

* Neither is Ray LaHood…

Republican Aaron Schock Wednesday sought to defend himself against Democrat Colleen Callahan’s new TV ad, which criticizes him over backdating documents as a notary.

The spot is meant to hit Schock on reports that he signed off on documents that had inaccurate dates for his father. In the spot, Callahan praises two Republicans who have occupied the 18th Congressional District seat she wants, former U.S. Rep. Bob Michel and current U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood, a Republican who is retiring at the end of his term.

LaHood clarified Wednesday that he’s supporting Schock. LaHood said Callahan shouldn’t have used his name in the ad and argued it should be taken off airwaves.

*** UPDATE *** [posted by Kevin Fanning] It looks like the DCCC is now playing hot potato with the aforementioned Halvorson ad:

The DCCC’s spokesman did not respond to questions about who signed off on the ad and why it targets Mr. Blagojevich — who, according to a poll in Thursday’s Chicago Tribune, has an approval rating in the state of just 13%, even lower than President George W. Bush.

Eric Adelstein, the media consultant for the Democratic candidate in the race, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, stressed that the DCCC buy was an “independent expenditure” in which the Halvorson campaign had no input.

Congressman Rahm Emmanuel adds his two cents…

U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Chicago, who once headed the DCCC and unofficially shepherds Illinois congressional races, said he, too, was not involved in developing the ad or deciding to run it. But like Mr. Adelstein, he said he likes the spot because it “levels the playing field a little bit.”

* The Governor’s office had no official comment, but there was this little tid bit at the end of the story…

Mr. Blagojevich, himself a former congressman, is said to have “gone ballistic” when he first heard of the spot.

And the beat goes on…

*** UPDATE *** [posted by Kevin Fanning] A commenter just pointed out the following:

Josh Kalven - Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 4:22 pm:

Blagojevich is responding to a different ad — not the one produced by the Halvorson campaign, which we posted and you embedded above.

Blagojevich is upset about the recent anti-Ozinga spot from the DCCC, which is much harder on him.

Josh is correct. Thanks for spotting it. Here is the other video mentioned in the Crain’s article:

* Related…

* Central Illinois sees big jump in voter signup

* Biggert fends off criticism she’s too close to Bush

* Billboards challenge Bean on global warming

* Oberweis and Foster Do Battle Again for Congress

* 14th District rematch toned down

* Kirk, Seals square off in debate

* Roskam, Morgenthaler face off in election

* Roskam maintains financial lead over Morgenthaler

* For U.S. Senate, U.S. House 9th and 13th districts

* ‘Blame game’ at center of 13th District battle