* A recent story in the Washington Post centered around an interview with Cornell Belcher, who polls for both the DCCC and Barack Obama. It indicates that two Illinois Republican incumbents might be on the Dems’ radar because of the nation’s economic woes…

In Illinois’ 13th district, an exurban Chicago seat where veteran Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is running for re-election, Belcher found that voters trust Democrats to fix the economy more than Republicans by a 19-point margin. They gave Democrats a 15-point edge on energy issues and an 11-point advantage on the broad question of which party “shares your values.” And that’s all in a district where President Bush won by 10 points in 2004 and 13 points in 2000.

The story is similar in the neighboring 6th district of freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R). The seat has long leaned Republican — Bush won it by 6 points in 2004 — but now, Belcher found, Democrats have a 14-point edge on the economy and a 15-point lead on energy.

Does that mean that Biggert and Roskam are going to lose? No. Both remain favored to win re-election, and neither of their races gets included on most prognoticators’ lists of competitive contests. The point here is that if Democrats are opening up such a wide lead on economic issues in Republican districts like these, what’s going to happen in the true swing seats? And that’s before the effects of Obama’s increasingly strong candidacy — and money — enter the discussion.

As today’s Tribune poll shows, 57 percent of Illinoisans said the economy was the top issue, which would explain why Belcher thinks those two incumbents might possibly be vulnerable.

* I checked with a local Democratic strategist about this article, and he had this to say via AIM…

Biggert is the exact kind of person that gets caught in a sweep like this: Low profile, not seriously challenged, not a big fundraiser.

A hammer dropped on her head is unexpected and dangerous, even if she’s moderate and has high approval numbers. Those can be very soft in an environment like this.

Roskam is different. He’s been communicating, he’s attacked Morgenthaler and he just went through a tough run last year. My guess would be that his voters are more loyal.

That said, I just can’t believe the [DCCC] would drop the hammer on these two.

Spend the money on Seals who deserves actual help from the committee and would be a Dem seat for 20 years.

* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s campaign had this comment about their chances against the Republican Roskam yesterday via e-mail…

In looking at the 16 election pairs (the last 10 years of primary + general) in the 6th District and the neighboring 8th and 14th, I discovered that the Democratic percentage of overall votes went up from the primary to the general in every case.

The Democratic percentage in the 6th in the primary was 54%.

By the way, it is the first time that the Dem percentage in the primary was over 50% in the 6th. […]

In February, Democratic ballots cast in the Congressional race were 54% and Republican 46%. If the historic voting trends prevail, then the Democratic candidate in the General Election, JIll Morgenthaler, would stand to get more than 54% in the the upcoming election.

Even in years where the Democrats were not well known and spent very little money, the percentage still goes up from primary election to general election.

A Morgenthaler victory might sound unlikely in this historically Republican district, but, given the large number of new Democrats who registered for the February election, approximately 37,000 and Obama’s popularity in district, it is not. (Obama is very popular in the district where he won his Senate Primary and General elections as well as the Presidential primary.) In the February primary, there were 25,000 more Democratic votes cast than Republican.

Take it all for what it’s worth.

* By the way, the Tribune endorsed Morgenthaler today. An excerpt…

Roskam has a generally solid voting record, but he lends his name to some causes that would turn Congress into a busybody. He has co-sponsored a bill that would push the Defense Department to ban Playboy and R-rated movies from sale on military bases. He supports another bill that could put the clamps on in-vitro fertilization. Finally, Roskam opposes the expansion of O’Hare International Airport. That’s a key issue for this region—and Morgenthaler is right to support expansion. She gets the nod.

* The Sun-Times endorsed Roskam…

He has reached across the partisan divide, holding regular conference calls with voters. He has made tax relief his first priority, reflecting the preferences of both Republicans and moderate Democrats in his district. And he has the parliamentary skills and pragmatic approach to governance that could make him an effective counterweight to a possible Democratic White House and an overwhelmingly Democratic House and Senate.

* Related…

* Schock investigation ends quickly

* Schock won’t be charged in document flap

* Tribune endorses Kirk, Ozinga, Morgenthaler, Bean

* Manzullo in a 3-way race
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* Kirk, Seals run against each other, Bush

* Illinois’ 10th District Draws the Eye of National Parties

* Dan Seals on Health Care

* Both 14th District candidates have deep pockets

* Roskam promises fiscal responsibility