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Kirk poll shows incumbent maintaining big lead; Plus, DCCC goes on the attack

Monday, Sep 15, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mark Kirk’s campaign is floating some new poll results. Keep in mind that this has a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent. From the executive summary…

In a September 10-11 poll by McLaughlin & Associates, Rep. Kirk maintains a 22-point lead (51/29) in a rematch against Dan Seals. In IL-10, Senator Obama’s favorability rating has dropped from 67/26 in June to 59/32 in September. Kirk continues to be more popular than Obama with a fav/unfav rating of 63/20 while Dan Seals struggles at 40/22. A number of key Democratic-leaning groups endorsed Kirk including Planned Parenthood, the National Education Association, the National Wildlife Federation and the Human Rights Campaign. […]

Additionally, with the conviction of Tony Rezko and a possible indictment of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich looming, Seals must fight a strong local anti-Democratic headwind with Blagojevich’s fav/unfav sinking to a record low of 13/68.

If you’re above 50, you’re in decent shape. 51 isn’t completely safe, however. Negative attacks are flying (see below).

Also, I’m not convinced yet that Rod Blagojevich brings down Democrats all that much because RRB is not seen as a “normal” Democrat. He fights with his party so much and is so, well, bizarre at times that other Dems may not pay the price, along the lines of how Republicans didn’t really suffer from Alan Keyes’ presence in 2004. I could be wrong, but that’s my take so far. Argue this in comments and I’ll make sure to listen.

* And this is from the polling memo…

Since our last poll three months ago, Dan Seals gained no ground on popular incumbent Mark Kirk in the general election for US Congress in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District, still trailing by a daunting 22 points. Kirk’s favorability rating (63%) is still very strong. Independent and Ticket Splitters who vote for the person not the party are in control of the race. The majority of voters in the district are very thoughtful and independent and demonstrate that by supporting both Senator Barack Obama and Congressman Mark Kirk.

* Head to head results…

Congressional Ballot: If the election for US Congress were held today and the candidates were Mark Kirk, the Republican candidate, and Dan Seals, the Democrat candidate, for whom would you vote?

Mark Kirk 51%
Dan Seals 29%
Undecided 21%

Congressional Ballot Among “Ticket-Splitters”

Mark Kirk 56%
Dan Seals 9%
Undecided 35%

* More…

* Methodology…

This Illinois 10th Congressional District survey was conducted among 300 likely general election voters between September 10 and 11, 2008. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a statewide general election. This survey of 300 likely voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.6% at a 95% confidence interval.

* Meanwhile, as mentioned above, the DCCC has released an ad blasting “rubber stamp Congressman” Mark Kirk…

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Dillard distances himself from himself

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Kirk Dillard is making a big rehabilitation effort at the Republican convention…

Bad ad: State Sen. Kirk Dillard, a major supporter of John McCain but a close friend of Barack Obama, tells Sneed he inadvertently wound up in that Obama campaign ad that ran in Iowa. “It was only 10 seconds, but I asked (top Obama strategist) David Axelrod to pull it,” said Dillard.

• • The upshot: Axelrod did.

“Inadvertently”? Did he not see the cameras, lights and makeup people?

* The Tribune has more…

Q: Could you still play some kind of surrogate role for McCain?

A: I would submit because I said 10 seconds of nice things about Sen. Obama, I’m probably a better surrogate than many people. I know Sen. Obama. I respect him. But I’m overwhelmingly for John McCain for president and I think that says a lot, as opposed to just the total partisan line.

Q: Will 2010, when all statewide offices are up for election, be a good rebuilding year for the Illinois GOP?

A: In 2010, it will be a decent year for Illinois Republicans. First, the Illinois Republicans are better for our economy than the Democrats. And I think Illinoisans have overwhelmingly seen how bad the total Chicago machine Democratic control of state government is for our job climate and the state of Illinois as a whole.

Q: Do you plan to run for statewide office in 2010?

A: I don’t have any concrete plans for 2010 other than to see who emerges and how things shake out. Most importantly, my children are a little older, and for the first time in recent times, I’m able from a family situation to travel around the state of Illinois, which I’ve not been able to do. But I’m not like some other folks who are around here today with active, behind-the-scenes plans to run statewide.

That last question is what this rehab effort is really all about.

* Check this out…

In a recent Daily Herald survey, suburban Republican delegates to the convention offered a scattershot of names when asked who they wanted to be the GOP nominee for governor in 2010.

Some of the delegates offered as many as three answers. Those most often mentioned included state Sen. Kirk Dillard, House Republican leader Cross, state Sen. Bill Brady, DuPage County Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett and state Rep. Jim Durkin.

* Dillard was also quoted in the Daily Herald…

“Barack does have some downsides and I think those will be brought to light as we push forward,” [Dillard] said.

* Meanwhile, Congressman Peter Roskam looks to the future…

Q: How can the Republican party in Illinois overcome its internal divide between social conservatives and social moderates?

A: While the Republicans have had bumps in the road, the Democrats are downright fratricidal. It is very dark in those relationships. We are poised to make good progress.

* As does Congresscritter Mark Kirk…

Who do you see leading the Republican party of Illinois over the next few years?

It will not be difficult to put forward a candidate. We are in the middle of a Shakespearean meltdown of the Democratic party. I think voters are ready for anybody but the people who participated in the meltdown. I don’t want to name any names. But there are some people out there who have built up a good reputation.

Are you interested at all in running for a statewide office in Illinois?

(He laughs hard.) I’m totally and completely focused on the 10th Congressional District.

Will it be hard for Republicans to regain a foothold in Illinois?

It may be affected in the future by who is in the White House. If you have a Republican president in the White House, it will be tough times ahead because that president will have to make tough choices and you will have people disagreeing with that.

* Jim Edgar also looks ahead at 2010…

I’m not a pessimist like some people are and I think many in the media like to talk about the death of the Republican party. We had a tough go. I never thought Rod Blagojevich would get away with it twice … it’s now our turn. I can assure you whether he’s on the ballot or not in 2010 we’ll run against him.

* And makes a point that is rarely discussed…

I don’t know that the Republican Party is any worse off as a party. It’s just that we don’t have that anchor that we had for so many years–the governor’s office.

* And I honestly didn’t even know who this guy was until today’s Sneed column…

Word is U.S. Housing Secretary Steve Preston, who hails from Hinsdale, is being urged to consider a run to unseat Gov. Blagojevich. It was the whisper amongst top GOP Illinois delegates at the Republican National Convention here.

You gotta wonder who is is urging him. Any thoughts?

* Related…

* Illinois convention delegates offer diversity of political experience

* Congressman Kirk Gets Dropped From RNC Schedule

* TOPINKA: Spent 42 bucks, got three great suits. Fifty percent off on everything. A Ralph Lauren suit for like seven and a half bucks. That’s incredible, you know and it’s brand new, it still has the tags on it.

* Five questions for Rep. Mark Kirk

* Surprises for Ill. delegates at RNC

* State GOP acknowledges Obama factor but sees upside in governor’s downside

* Illinois GOP hope Democratic dysfunction brings party together

* State GOP needs to fix itself by 2010

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Big Schock lead

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* No surprise here. A new GOP poll shows Republican Congressional candidate Aaron Schock with a big lead From a press release…

Aaron Schock leads Colleen Callahan 56%-27% on the congressional ballot test, with 2% of voters choosing Green Party candidate Sheldon Schafer and 13% undecided. By intensity, 39% are committed to Schock, while 17% definitely vote for Callahan.

The challenge Callahan faces is compounded by the fact that she trails Schock significantly in name recognition and favorables. Eighty-four percent (84%) of likely voters have heard of Schock, with 58% having a favorable impression of him and 12% having an unfavorable impression. By contrast, Callahan’s image is 66% heard of/29% favorable/9% unfavorable.

Matching Aaron’s name recognition and favorables in the final nine weeks of the campaign is a tall order for the Callahan campaign.

Even during the most anti-Republican national political environment in decades, district voters prefer to vote for Aaron Schock in November.

Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely voters in the 18th Congressional District of Illinois for the Aaron Schock for Congress Campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The survey was completed August 18-20, 2008 among four hundred (400) likely voters in the district and has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

* Other congressional stuff…

* Republican State of the States 2008: Illinois

* Is Schock slacking on debates?

* Farm Bureau endorses Schock

* Roskam tops Illinois congressional delegation with mass mailings

* 11th Congressional District race heats up early

* Clear choice awaits voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional race

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