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Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Colona) today released a new poll from Public Opinions Strategies showing that, despite millions being spent against him by outside groups in recent weeks, Schilling is starting to pull away from his opponent, Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline).

At the same time, Schilling released fundraising totals for the third quarter showing he raised $617,826.37 in that span, pushing his total fundraising efforts for the 2011-12 election cycle over $2.1 million. The campaign currently has $839,000 cash on hand.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll surveyed 400 likely voters and gave Schilling a 51-44 lead over Bustos. 45 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Schilling, while 34 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of him. Meanwhile, just 34 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Bustos, while 38 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of her. The poll also found that President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Illinois 17th District by a 50-44 margin.

We Ask America had Bustos ahead by less than a point on October 9th. The firm had Obama ahead of Romney by almost 12 points, not the 6-point margin in Schilling’s poll.

* Meanwhile, the DCCC has a new poll showing Democrat Brad Schneider leading Republican Bob Dold by a single point, 44-43. That October 14th poll tracks pretty closely with We Ask America’s October 9th poll which had Dold up by less than 2 points. This race appears to be quite close.

* From the DCCC…

Our poll shows the President leading Romney by 12 points (54% - 42%), paving a path for Schneider to increase his lead.

We Ask America had Obama leading by 10, 53-43.

DCCC methodology…

The data in this memo is from a survey of 451 likely 2012 voters conducted October 14, 2012, in Illinois’ 10th Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.6%.

* OK, on to the DCCC’s new TV ads. The first hits Bobby Schilling on Medicare….

Script…

We work a lifetime for these moments…

We save…and plan so there’s peace of mind in retirement.

But some in Washington like Bobby Schilling would end that security… end the guarantee of Medicare…

Schilling would hand decisions about our health care to insurance companies…

To give more tax breaks to millionaires.

Bobby Schilling needs to remember: he works for us.

And we work our whole lives…for this.

* Another “Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything” spot…

Script…

In Washington, special interests are drowning out the middle-class.

But if you send this Plummer to Congress, he’ll make it worse.

Jason Plummer signed a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs.

And he’d give more tax breaks to millionaires like himself — while making the middle-class pay thousands more.

Jason Plummer’s never had to work for anything…what makes you think he’ll work for you?

* And Rodney Davis is hit on outsourcing jobs…

Script…

47,000 Illinois jobs lost.
Sent overseas in unfair trade deals.
47,000 families left to scrape by… while corporations are rewarded for the mass layoffs.
Rewarded by politicians like Rodney Davis who want to hand them tax breaks for shipping our jobs overseas.
47,000 more reasons why Rodney Davis is wrong for Illinois.

I didn’t see any new GOP ads posted on YouTube this afternoon, but if or when I do I’ll update the post.

*** UPDATE *** A pretty good Rodney Davis ad I missed…

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Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This arrived in my e-mail earlier today…

New Poll Shows Romano in close battle with 26 year incumbent Lang

Could it be? Could Rep. Lou Lang (D-Skokie) really be in trouble?

* Not so much…

In a poll conducting by Victory Media Group of Glenview from October 9-11, challenger Vince Romano scored 44.2% of the vote to 26-year incumbent Democrat Lou Lang’s 55.8%.

OK, so Lang is well over 50. And the pollster isn’t a pollster.

* But it gets better. Check out the questions the pollster asked…

* 16th District State Representative Lou Lang has been in office for 25 years– since 1987. Last year he joined 59 Democrats and zero Republicans to pass a 67% tax increase on personal income and 46% tax increase on business income. Knowing this…

Less/More Likely to Vote for Lou Lang

Less Likely 57.5
More Likely 17.9
No Difference 24.6

* If the election for your State Representative were held today between 25 year incumbent Democrat Lou Lang and Republican businessman Vincent Romano, who opposes tax increases and will vote to repeal them if elected.

Lou Lang 55.8
Vincent Romano 44.2

* The Question: Could you come up with a more lopsided set of poll questions?

Snark, of course, is heavily encouraged.

…Adding… Your answer doesn’t have to be about Lou Lang, unless you really want to, of course.

28 Comments

Blaming the workers isn’t working

Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The constant media drumbeat about how public employees need to essentially be punished for their “lavish” pensions isn’t working, according to the Tribune’s latest poll…

Illinois voters overwhelmingly blame politicians for creating the state’s public employee pension mess, but like elected officials, they’re divided about plans to fix the problem, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

What that lede doesn’t mention is that Illinoisans don’t blame public employees for the pension mess…

Just 2 percent of Illinoisans think the mess is solely the fault of workers…

Brian Foggs, a 29-year-old from the Chicago Lawn neighborhood, blamed politicians for the pension mess, not state workers.

“These people aren’t being unreasonable. They just have to take care of bills,” said Foggs, a poll respondent.

And less than a third blame both politicians and workers.

* On to the solution…

Keep in mind, that’s the Democrats’ proposal. And their own party members don’t support it…

Democratic voters opposed the plan 38 percent to 32 percent, but Republicans were slightly more in favor than against, 35 percent to 32 percent.

The Tribune’s proposal, which the House Republicans have adopted, is a lot harsher to workers.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Rep. Mike Fortner’s plan definitely needs to be considered.

* This was a quickie poll question. The consequences weren’t totally laid out. We need better numbers. But when less than a third of the population supports an idea, it may be time to rethink that idea. And it also means that even harsher ideas should be looked at with much suspicion.

* Speaking of which…

More…

The proposal also drew 55 percent opposition from white suburban women, moderate voters that include so-called soccer moms especially concerned about education. Only 28 percent of that group backed the cost shift. Among independent voters, a key demographic that influences state elections, the idea was rejected 44 percent to 31 percent.

The Chicago Democrats have really shot themselves in the foot with that plan.

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Tuesday, Oct 16, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

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