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The public doesn’t want to do it, either

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I wanted to take a closer look at one of the IEA’s poll results…

Now I am going to read you possible ways to close the deficit in the pension systems in Illinois and I would like you to rate each one using a scale from 0 to 10. A 0 on this scale means you think that proposal is a VERY BAD idea. A 10 on this scale means you think that proposal is a VERY GOOD idea.

Click the pic for a better look at the responses…

* What I’ve done below is combined the 0-3 and 7-10 responses to give us a better idea of where the opposition and support is…

* Laying off teachers and college faculty - 59% (Bad) 13% (Good)

* Raising property taxes - 72% (Bad) 11% (Good)

* Allowing new casinos to be built in Illinois - 32% (Bad) 41% (Good)

* Closing tax loopholes for corporations - 10% (Bad) 71% (Good)

* Raising the income tax rate in Illinois for people making more than $100,000 a year - 29% (Bad) 45% (Good)

* Forcing Illinois to put the money into the pension fund - 14% (Bad) 59% (Good)

* Cutting benefits to current retirees - 70% (Bad) 10% (Good)

* Cutting pension benefits for teachers who have not retired yet - 49% (Bad) 24% (Good)

The public clearly does not want anything bad to happen to anybody except corporations which take advantage of tax loopholes. I’m not sure they really understand the consequences of what “Forcing Illinois to put the money into the pension fund” would do. And, notice, that even though a strong plurality supports raising the tax rate on people making over $100K a year, it’s not a majority by any means. And property tax hikes? Forget it, man.

There was no question about raising income taxes again on everyone. I doubt it would be all that popular.

* And people wonder why it’s so difficult to pass a pension reform bill. It’s not just the General Assembly which doesn’t want to make tough, grinding choices. The people don’t want to do it, either.

I think the General Assembly and the governor need to find another way to do this. It’s probably time that they take a good, long look at Rep. Mike Fortner’s pension proposal. If Fortner’s numbers work, it appears to be a whole lot more doable politically than anything else out there, and it’s a whole lot more humane that what’s on the table right now.

  71 Comments      


Poll: Public strongly backs teachers in pension fight

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a press release by Illinois Education Association President Cinda Klickna…

A new scientific statewide poll shows that, despite years of hostile editorials, a well-funded public relations campaign and the non-stop efforts of anti-union “think tanks” to turn the public against education employees, more than two-thirds of Illinois voters (68%) believe that teachers should receive their pensions as they were promised, even when pressed about the state’s budget problems.

The percentage siding with teachers receiving their full pensions increases (71%) when voters learn that teachers are ineligible for Social Security and rises higher still (75%) when they hear that Springfield politicians failed to put money into the pension systems and spent it on their own priorities instead.

These data show the public understands that education employees are being reasonable when they argue that public employees should not be made to bear sole responsibility for fixing the pension mess.

A majority (58%) of voters believe the legislature is most to blame for the current pension deficit with only 5% laying blame at the feet of teachers.

When it comes to solutions, a majority (58%) considers cutting benefits to current retirees a very bad idea. Most think closing tax loopholes for corporations (54%) is a better solution.

* From the poll…

Which point of view do you agree with more: [RANDOMIZE]

IEA, the teachers’ union, helps the public schools by advocating for better education policies and helping teachers and staff.

IEA, the teachers’ union, hurts the public schools by protecting the jobs of bad teachers.

(WAIT FOR RESPONSE) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

    STRONGLY HELPS ………………………………….. 26%
    SOMEWHAT HELPS …………………………………. 26
    SOMEWHAT HURTS ………………………………… 14
    STRONGLY HURTS ………………………………….. 27
    (DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………….. 8

    TOTAL HELPS ………………………………………….. 51%
    TOTAT HURTS …………………………………………. 40%

* On to pensions…

As you may know, over the long run, there is an $83B deficit in Illinois for the pension systems. Who do you think is mostly to blame for most of the current pension systems deficit [RANDOMIZE] Governor Quinn, the Illinois legislature or the teachers and college faculty?

    QUINN …………………………………………………….. 12%
    LEGISLATURE …………………………………………. 58
    TEACHERS AND COLLEGE FACULTY ………… 5
    (ALL THREE) ……………………………………………. 13
    (NONE OF THESE) …………………………………….. 5
    (DON’T KNOW) …………………………………………… 7

* The public appears to support the teachers in this pension fight…

As we mentioned before, Illinois currently has a pension debt of $83B in unfunded pension liabilities for teachers and college faculty. Which statement comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]

Teachers and college faculty contributed to their pension from every paycheck, and should receive the pensions they were promised, despite these deficits.

Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.

(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?

    RECEIVE PENSION STRONGLY ……………….. 50%
    RECEIVE PENSION SOMEWHAT ………………. 17
    CAN’T AFFORD SOMEWHAT ……………………… 9
    CAN’T AFFORD STRONGLY ……………………… 14
    (DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………….. 9

    TOTAL RECEIVE PENSION ………………………. 68%
    TOTAL CAN’T AFFORD …………………………….. 24%

And which of these statements comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]

Teachers and college faculty have done their part, never missing a payment of their share into the pension system. Plus, Illinois teachers do not get Social Security. They should receive the pensions they were promised, despite these deficits.

Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.

(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?

    RECEIVE PENSION STRONGLY ……………….. 53%
    RECEIVE PENSION SOMEWHAT ………………. 18
    CAN’T AFFORD SOMEWHAT ……………………… 9
    CAN’T AFFORD STRONGLY ……………………… 12
    (DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………….. 8

    TOTAL RECEIVE PENSION ………………………. 71%
    TOTAL CAN’T AFFORD …………………………….. 21%

One last time. Which of these statements comes closer to your point of view [RANDOMIZE]

It is the politicians in Springfield who failed to meet their obligation by taking the money that should have gone to the pensions systems and spending it on their own pet projects. Teachers and college faculty should not be penalized and should receive the pensions they were promised.

Given the state’s budget problems, we just cannot afford to pay the full pensions of teachers and college faculty.

(IF CHOICE:) And do you strongly or somewhat agree with that statement?

    RECEIVE PENSION STRONGLY ……………….. 59%
    RECEIVE PENSION SOMEWHAT ………………. 17
    CAN’T AFFORD SOMEWHAT ……………………… 7
    CAN’T AFFORD STRONGLY ……………………… 11
    (DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………….. 6

    TOTAL RECEIVE PENSION ………………………. 75%
    TOTAL CAN’T AFFORD …………………………….. 18%

* The public is initially opposed to the cost shift idea, but opponents come around when it’s phased in…

One other proposal that people have mentioned is to make local school districts, rather than the state, responsible for teacher pension plans, which are currently paid for by the state. [RANDOMIZE]

SUPPORTERS of this idea say that it would help the state address its pension crisis, and that local school districts should be responsible for teacher pensions since they negotiate the teacher contracts in the first place.

OPPONENTS of this idea say that the state has been responsible for teacher pensions for decades, and shifting that burden to local school districts would be an unfunded mandate that would result in much higher local property taxes or cuts to education at the local level.

After hearing both sides of the issue, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose making local school districts, rather the state, responsible for teacher pension plans?

    STRONGLY FAVOR ………………………………….. 10%
    SOMEWHAT FAVOR ………………………………… 22
    SOMEWHAT OPPOSE ………………………………. 17
    STRONGLY OPPOSE ……………………………….. 42
    (DON’T KNOW) …………………………………………… 9

    TOTAL FAVOR …………………………………………. 32%
    TOTAL OPPOSE ………………………………………. 59%

[IF OPPOSE Q18=3-4]
And what if the change to make local school districts, rather than the state, responsible for teacher pension plans was phased in over ten years so that each year local school districts took more responsibility? Thinking again, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose making local school districts, rather the state, responsible for teacher pension plans?

    STRONGLY FAVOR ………………………………….. 12%
    SOMEWHAT FAVOR ………………………………… 33
    SOMEWHAT OPPOSE ………………………………. 14
    STRONGLY OPPOSE ……………………………….. 31
    (DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………… 10

    TOTAL FAVOR …………………………………………. 45%
    TOTAL OPPOSE ………………………………………. 45%

* But the cost shift would still cost legislators votes…

Now I want to ask you abut your vote for state legislature. If a candidate for the Illinois legislature voted to change the pension system for teachers and college faculty so that the costs were shifted to local school districts would you be MORE or LESS likely to vote for that candidate? [IF MORE/LESS] And would you be much [MORE/LESS] or somewhat [MORE/LESS] likely to vote for that candidate?

    MUCH MORE …………………………………………… 11%
    SOMEWHAT MORE ………………………………….. 20
    SOMEWHAT LESS ……………………………………. 20
    MUCH LESS …………………………………………….. 31
    (DON’T KNOW) ………………………………………… 18

    TOTAL MORE …………………………………………… 31%
    TOTAL LESS ……………………………………………. 51%

* Methodology…

(T)elephone survey conducted among 600 frequent voters in Illinois. Interviews were conducted August 6-13, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

Discuss.

  35 Comments      


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