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While we wait for the debate: PPP Poll has a one-point governor’s race

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* While we wait for the start of tonight’s 7 o’clock debate [click here for the ABC7 livestream], let’s take a quick look at the new Public Policy Polling poll….

42% Bill Brady
41% Pat Quinn
6% Scott Lee Cohen
1% Lex Green
3% Rich Whitney
6% Undecided

* I asked PPP to check Speaker Madigan’s fave/unfaves and they did…

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michael Madigan?
18% Favorable
52% Unfavorable
30% Not sure

Oof.

Methodology…

October 14-16, 2010 Survey of 557 likely voters. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%.

* Please help us live-blog tonight’s debate in comments. Y’all did an excellent job last night. Let’s try it again. Click here for the livestream. The debate begins at 7 pm.

* 7:00 pm - And here we go…

* The Chicago Tribune’s Clout St. blog is also liveblogging. And IL Public Media is live-Tweeting. So is ABC7 and NBC5.

* Brady gets to early release, um, early in the debate. Just a quick mention, but a nice pivot.

* After months of ignoring Sen. Dan Kotowski’s budget reform proposal, Quinn has finally started using it in debates, including twice tonight. It also helps that Brady voted against the proposal - because it was attached to a budget bill.

The same goes for legislator furloughs, which Quinn just mentioned. It was in a budget-bill. Brady voted against the bill, so he voted against all that other stuff as well.

* LOL. Quinn has constantly used the phrase “perish the thought” whenever he mentions the possibility that Brady could be elected. Brady just said: “Governor, perish the thought that you’d tell the truth.” The man understands pivots. Very crucial in debates if people are watching.

* Brady: “Gov. Quinn has used the social issues to divide Illinois.”

* Andy Shaw: “Sen. Brady let me see if I can get an actual answer to the question.” Asks about social issues. Brady says he supports “parental notice,” 2nd Amendment. Tries to be as innocuous as possible.

* “Leaders lead, they don’t punt. Gov. Quinn has punted on issue like he has punted” on everything else, Brady said about death penalty reforms. He’s clearly getting the better of the guv.

* Brady again brings up the allegation that Illinois is deemed to be one of only 7 states to be in a recession. That was on MSNBC a while ago. I’ll be doing a fact check tomorrow on this.

* Quinn brings up George W. Bush and Brady’s support for him in yet another debate. Talks about rail car company that’s expanding and Groupon. Nippon and Groupon, if you’re keeping score at home.

* From Clout St…

Quinn claimed Brady voted against a bill that would have barred spouse abusers from having guns. Do not have a bill number to verify at this point.

So, I asked the Quinn campaign…

Brady Voted Against Denying Domestic Abusers Guns. Brady voted against a bill that required applicants for firearm owner’s ID cards to certify that they had not been convicted of domestic battery or similar offense. It also allowed the police to deny or revoke ID cards if the holder had been convicted of such crimes. [HB 127, Adoption, 92-22, 5/31/97]

There you go.

* Brady: “If you want an Illinois that looks more like an Indiana or a Tennessee…” vote for me. [Miller: Look, man, it’s not that I hate Indiana and Tennessee, but I don’t want to be like them.]

* Quinn shout-out to Lisa Madigan on how he’s working with her on transparency. LM is the most popular person in politics these days, so that can’t hurt. Also, third mention of Sen. Kotowski’s “budgeting for results” bill.

* Brady again brings up an audit. I wonder if anyone showed Quinn the quote from the auditor general about whether he knew what a “business audit” of the state would be. His response? “No.” Apparently not because Quinn didn’t mention it in his response. He used to read this blog. Maybe he’s just too busy now.

* Brady: “You’ve racked up record deficits and debt. $13 billion.” “Slashed” public safety. “I never said I’d slash Veterans Affairs.”

* From Ward Room…

“It doesn’t matter how many times you’ve cut $3 billion it’s still not true.”

* Quinn brings up the “drive through deliveries” bill that mandated more than 24 hours hospital time for new moms, but doesn’t explain it very well at all.

* It’s a good thing that this debate isn’t being watched by a majority of the voters or the guv would be toast.

Keep that in mind, by the way. We’re watching, but not a huge number of people are. This isn’t like a presidential debate.

* Brady: “Let me remind you, governor, that it was you who introduced the bill to cut education by a billion dollars.” Zing.

* Quinn now trying to explain those three Brady “conflict of interest” votes. Actually, it wasn’t much of a “try.” The governor doesn’t seem to know the specifics. Bizarre.

Brady brings up the AFSCME deal in response. “Ethically challenged?” he asks before each point, including “secret pay raises.”

* Moderator asks Brady to explain the votes. Brady glosses over them.

Quinn, however, still doesn’t explain what the three votes were, except to say they were published by the Tribune. For crying out loud, somebody tell the governor to read the gosh-darned Tribune story. Sheesh.

* If your Quinn drinking game word was “Groupon,” you’re plastered by now. Please, don’t comment. You might embarrass yourself.

* Clout St…

*Quinn has ripped Brady twice for not going to a campaign forum sponsored by an African-American advocacy group.

* Mike Flannery…

Brady offers lamest defense/explanation yet of 3 votes he cast in Genl Assembly to spend tax dollars to benefit his interests nr Champaign

Yeah, but Quinn’s explanation was even lamerster. (OK, my drinking game word was “budgeting for results,” so I may be getting a bit tipsy too.)

* Latina panelist Rebecca Sanchez asks Brady about a story I wrote for subscribers a few weeks ago regarding a fundraiser attended by two former Rod Blagojevich cronies. Brady says he doesn’t know what she’s speaking of. She says Juan Ochoa and Dean Martinez. Brady says they’re “good people.” Quinn points out that he fired Martinez. That ought to push the story into the mainstream if anyone is paying attention.

* Brady: “Governor, you didn’t even have the backbone to stand up to Mike Madigan and John Cullerton” on your own reform commission’s ideas.

* Quinn talks about companies “taking” jobs from Indiana and Missouring and “bringing them to Illinois.” This was in context of Brady not paying taxes, believe it or not.

* Quinn uses Bush again in his closing statement. From Clout St…

*Brady closing statement: Illinois is a crossroads, but we need new leadership. Quinn has run state into the ground the past two years. Jobs lost. If you want to continue down that path, vote for Pat Quinn. If you want a difference, lower taxes and more jobs, vote Brady.

*Quinn closing statement: He stabilized government on ethics when he took over. Blamed Bush killing economy. Said he’s creating jobs. Important to have a governor with a heart.

And it’s over.

Thoughts?

94 Comments

PPP: Kirk over Giannoulias 42-40

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling has just released its latest Illinois survey and finds Mark Kirk ahead of Alexi Giannoulias by two points 42-40. PPP’s last poll three weeks ago had Kirk ahead by four. From the pollster…

You would assume that for Mark Kirk to be running ahead as Republican in Illinois that he would be winning a good amount of crossover support from Democrats and that he would have a massive lead with independents. In reality he is doing neither of those things. He’s only getting 10% of the Democratic vote, about average for GOP candidates across the country this year. And he has just a 9 point advantage with independents, below average for what Republican Senate candidates across the country are getting. To put it into perspective when the GOP won another Senate seat this year in a state Obama won by 25 points- Massachusetts- their nominee took independent voters by a 32 point margin.

So how is Kirk ahead if he’s not doing those things? The final outcome in Illinois, perhaps more so than any other state in the country, is going to be determined by the ability of Democrats to mobilize their base in these final two weeks. We find that likely voters there only voted for Barack Obama by a 9 point margin in 2008, compared to his actual 25 point victory in the state. If what Democrats are dealing with on a national basis is an enthusiasm gap then what they’re facing in Illinois could perhaps be better described as an enthusiasm canyon. The only state where we see a bigger disparity between who voted in 2008 and who’s planning to vote this year is Obama’s native Hawaii.

The competitiveness of this race is completely predicated on paltry Democratic turnout. If that proves to be the case it’s about 50-50 as to who will win on election day with perhaps a small advantage for Kirk. If Democratic turnout exceeds current expectations there’s almost no doubt Giannoulias ends up as the winner.

Crosstabs are here. This is a relatively “old” poll since it was conducted Oct. 14-16, so some of these numbers are almost a week old.

Green Party nominee LeAlan Jones has 4 percent and Libertarian Mike Labno has 3 percent. 10 percent are undecided.

* Voters don’t like either of these guys…

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alexi Giannoulias?
35% Favorable
47% Unfavorable
18% Not sure

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Kirk?
35% Favorable
46% Unfavorable
19% Not sure

* And this is bad, bad news for Democrats…

Would you rather Democrats or Republicans held the majority in the next US Senate?
45% Democrats
46% Republicans
9% Not sure

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
45% Approve
51% Disapprove
4% Not sure

* Lots of undecided females…

* And LeAlan Jones is taking Democratic and black votes away from Giannoulias…

* The DSSC leaked a topline to Lynn Sweet yesterday showing Giannoulias leading Kirk 41-36. The pollster who shall not be named once again screwed up his numbers by using “some other candidate” instead of Libertarian Labno. Stupidity.

17 Comments

*** UPDATED x1 *** Congressional roundup: Hare trails by 7, Foster down by 1, Seals whacks Dold

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The DCCC has spent $360K on Congressman Phil Hare, according to Hotline on Call. Hare will need every dollar he can get. The Hill’s new poll has him trailing Republican Bobby Schilling by seven points…

Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby Schilling, by seven points — 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 — and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Perhaps even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents, 45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza restaurant.

President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.

Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small margin.

Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.

And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34 percent said nothing has changed.

* Here’s a brutal NRCC ad attacking Hare…

*** UPDATE *** From the Hare campaign…

Had the National Republican Campaign Committee bothered to watch Congressman Hare’s complete statement, they would have understood he was clearly saying that we must invest in local communities to keep teachers and firefighters on the job. The myth Hare referred to is that you can’t spend at all during periods of debt. Hare even points out several budget offsets that could pay for these investments like ending tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires and subsidies to the oil industry–offsets Republicans like Schilling refuse to support.

Watch the full video in context here.

Associated Press says clip is out of context: “But add a little context and it becomes clear that Hare was not denying the debt exists. He was calling it a myth that the debt means the federal government can’t spend money on important programs.”

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* The NRCC’s latest poll has Schilling leading Hare 44-41.

* Hotline on Call also reports that the DCCC has spent $366K recently on Congressman Bill Foster. The Hill poll has Foster trailing Randy Hultgren by one point…

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is in a tough battle for his district. He trails Republican Randy Hultgren by one point, 42 percent to 43, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll. […]

The poll found 26 percent of likely voters weren’t familiar with Hultgren, compared with 11 percent who didn’t know Foster. And 27 percent of independents said they weren’t familiar with Hultgren. […]

Among independent voters, 45 percent favor Foster, 39 percent favor Hultgren and 13 percent are undecided. Younger voters and female voters are leaning toward Foster, while Hultgren is popular among male and older voters.

President Obama carried this district, but 45 percent of voters said they disapproved of the job he’s doing. And 71 percent said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

When asked about the change Obama brought to Washington, 35 percent said he brought change “for the worse,” 30 percent said he brought change “for the better” and 31 percent said nothing has changed.

* The Democrats are unleashing a double-barreled attack on Republican congressional candidate Bob Dold. Both ads hit him for being pro-life in a pro-choice district. Dold claims he’s pro-choice, but Planned Parenthood begs to differ. First up, Democrat Dan Seals’ ad, which claims that Dold is “hiding who he is”…

* The DCCC’s ad says “Robert Dold has been careful about what he shows us” and goes on to say he is “backed” by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life. Actually, the group “recommended” Dold in the primary. Watch…

According to Hotline on Call, the DCCC has spent $631,000 on Seals.

* Roundup…

* 3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup

* Durbin Stumps Downstate With Hare

* New 10th District ads have very different messages

* Kinzinger, Halvorson in 11th District showdown

* Area mayors endorse Rep. Halvorson

* Polls: Tight race in 14th Congressional District

* Hare and Shilling Debate in Springfield

* US House Candidates Debate in Springfield

* U.S. Rep. Shimkus: ‘I feel I need to be there’

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Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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