* My latest syndicated newspaper column is about last week’s Quinn/Brady dustup and some related polling crosstabs. Read on…
Gov. Pat Quinn was in rare form last week as he attacked state Sen. Bill Brady before his Republican opponent had a chance to get his own licks in.
Quinn was put in an extremely awkward position by his budget director, who indicated to an out-of-state reporter that the state’s income taxes would be increased to 5 percent from its current 3 percent come January. Democrats were predictably stunned by the political stupidity of such a thing, and Republicans were predictably foaming at the mouth with outrage. The virulently anti-tax Brady quickly scheduled a press conference, and we all knew what was coming: Unadulterated vitriol.
The governor explained to reporters that his budget guru had been “misconstrued.” Raising the income tax to 5 percent wasn’t his plan, Quinn declared, vowing to veto any tax increase above 1 percentage point.
But in between the defenses, the governor engaged in a full-throttled attack on Brady for proposing to cut education funding by 10 percent as part of Brady’s across-the-board budget reduction plan. Quinn claimed Brady’s proposed billion-dollar slash would force the layoffs of “thousands of teachers,” crowd classrooms to the breaking point and, most importantly, cause property taxes to “skyrocket.” You could barely count to three in between Quinn’s warnings about how Brady would force property taxes through the roof.
“I’m a person who wants to hold down property taxes,” Quinn said. “If we want a growing economy, we cannot have politicians from Bloomington running around Illinois telling people before an election nothing is going to happen as far as tax reform when it comes to supporting education, but then after the election presiding over the biggest property tax in Illinois history.”
“I don’t want to see these local property taxes go up,” Quinn said moments later. “You’ve got to be careful of these apostles of ‘no tax.’ When they talk, they have their fingers crossed because they know the local government is going to raise the property tax on people.”
And he wasn’t finished. “I know that there’s going to be false prophets running around Illinois saying, ‘We don’t have to do anything, just stand still, cut the budget of state government for education by 10 percent.’ Make sure that everybody knows what this fellow is talking about. He wants to cut the school budget in Illinois, the education budget, by 10 percent. How are you going to fund the schools?”
Yeah, he laid it on pretty darned thick.
And considering the position Quinn was in, the property tax angle might not have been a bad push-back. People are probably more upset about the property tax than any other tax in the state. If he has to divert attention from his own proposed income tax hike, that’s the way to go. There is also little doubt that large, permanent cuts to education and local government eventually will lead to property tax hikes.
Then again, the negative messages pushed by Quinn apparently haven’t worked all that well. The latest Rasmussen poll has Brady with a seven-point, 44-37 lead, despite Quinn already having spent $2 million or so on viciously anti-Brady TV advertising.
More ominously, the poll of 750 likely voters taken July 26 found that a big chunk of Quinn’s “must get” vote is now seriously considering voting for a third party candidate. And there may be plenty of those to choose from this year.
A staggering 23 percent of African-Americans, 19 percent of moderates, 14 percent of Democrats and women and 10 percent of liberals chose “Some other candidate” in the poll. Just one of those demographics - moderates - was in double digits in Rasmussen’s June 7 poll. Quinn’s advertising has been so crushingly negative (which tends to push people away) and his job performance has been so utterly abominable lately that people apparently are heading for the exit doors.
That isn’t happening to Brady. His natural base - Republicans, conservatives, men, whites and people making more than $100,000 a year - are all still in the single digits on the “Some other candidate” response. Just 3 percent of Republicans are thinking of straying, for instance.
And it also isn’t happening to Quinn’s fellow statewide Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. Not a single one of those “must get” Democratic constituencies is in double-digits on Rasmussen’s “Some other candidate” response for the U.S. Senate campaign.
Pat Quinn’s worst enemy has always been Pat Quinn, and it’s no different now.
* In fairness to Quinn, he’s only the third most unpopular governor facing reelection this year, according to Public Policy Polling. Iowa’s and Massachusetts’ Democratic guvs are polling worse.
* Related and a campaign roundup…
* ADDED: Poll watch: Dems find glimmers of hope: One of those is in Illinois, the 10th District seat currently held by Mark Kirk. And an internal poll from that race, obtained by the Swamp, showed Dan Seals (D) with a 46-38 lead over Robert Dold (R). The poll was conducted in late May; though there have been few major developments specific to the race, the national climate remains volatile. But we’ve seen Illinois races less prone to national trends, given President Obama’s consistently strong numbers in his home state.
* Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI): It turns out that there’s one other factor which is fairly useful to look at, which is socioeconomic status. Relative to how they do for the Presidency, Democrats are somewhat more likely to win races for Congress in poorer districts, and somewhat more likely to lose them in wealthier ones. Another way to put this is that a split ticket of Republican for President, Democrat for Congress is more likely to occur in a poor district, whereas a split ticket of Democrat for President, Republican for Congress is more likely to occur in a wealthy one…. Most of the places where Democrats hold seats in the House in spite of a disadvantageous PVI — think TX-17 or MS-4 or TN-4 or OK-2 or the couple of Democrats in West Virginia — are poor, and most of the places where the reverse is true — think Mark Kirk in upscale IL-10 or Mike Castle in Delaware — are fairly well-off.
* Congressional Candidates: No Residency Required: Bobby Schilling acknowledged he doesn’t live in the district he’s seeking to represent, but noted that his Moline restaurant and his life history are tied to the 17th District.
* Democrats Maintain Advantage on Generic Ballot, 48% to 44%
* First thoughts: Are Democrats closing the gap?
* Cut minimum wage? Readers speak out
* Brady’s conservative roots go deep in Bloomington
* Nancy Brady provides steady dose of reality
* An alternative for Illinois: Adam Turl talks to Rich Whitney, the Green Party candidate for Illinois governor, about solutions to the economic crisis and the November election.
* Rich Whitney on WBBM Radio’s At Issue program [Fixed link]
* Independent governor candidate drops out, sells T-shirts: Frequent political candidate William “Dock” Walls is withdrawing from the Illinois governor’s race for the second time this year, but the latest announcement from the veteran African-American activist was a bit unusual. Last night, Walls sent out e-mails to reporters touting a T-shirt business that listed him as the contact. There was no word about his latest independent bid to run for governor, just a plug for customizable t-shirts. It wasn’t until today that a news release arrived from Green Party candidate Rich Whitney in which he claimed Walls’ endorsement. Whitney said in the statement that he was “thrilled that he has the support of such an important force for social change in Chicago.”
* Lex Green press release: Bill Brady found to be against voter choice in Illinois: The truth is out about who is behind the attack on voter choice. During petition challenges against the Constitution Party, one of the objectors stated that he is working for Bill Brady. In spite of Senator Brady’s silence about this disregard for ethical ballot choice, he is, in fact, a co-conspirator. And the lawyer who is the principle objector is John Fogarty, long time ally of Tom Cross. It looks like the Republican Party is calling out the big guns.
* GOP candidate for treasurer to launch iPhone app
* Why not terrify pols with voter clubs?
* Bernard Schoenburg: Franken to rally local Democrats
* Daley well-aware of Claypool danger
