* Rasmussen has a new poll. Previous results from Rasmussen’s polls conducted June 7, April 28, April 5, March 8 and February 3 are in brackets…
Kirk: 39 [42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]
Giannoulias: 40 [39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]
Other: 9 [7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]
Unsure: 12 [12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]
Not a huge amount of movement since last month but Kirk’s overall trend is downward since late April. He peaked during the time that Giannoulias’ bank went under. Giannoulias tanked a bit back then, but hasn’t really come back yet, even though Kirk had a very bad June. This thing will be close for a while. From the pollster…
The Illinois Senate race remains a virtual tie, but Republican Mark Kirk’s support appears to be trending down. […]
This is the first time Kirk’s support has ever fallen below the 40% mark. From February through June, he consistently attracted from 41% to 46% of the vote.
This marks the first time since March, however, that the Democrat has risen out of the 30s. His support against Kirk since February has ranged from 37% to 44%. […]
Kirk attracts 79% of the Republican vote while 73% of Democrats back Giannoulias. The Republican holds a two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But one-third of those voters are not committed to either major party candidate.
Favorability…
Giannoulias is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) of Ilinois voters and Very Unfavorably by 21%.
Seven percent (7%) also have a Very favorable opinion of Kirk, while 20% regard him Very Unfavorably.
The Democrat’s numbers have changed little from a month ago, while the Republican’s favorability ratings have fallen slightly. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?
* Suppose the new Arizona immigration law was being considered for your state. Would you favor or oppose passage of that law in your state?
52% Favor
33% Oppose
15% Not sure
* The U.S. Justice Department has decided to challenge the legality of Arizona’s new immigration law in federal court. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to challenge the legality of Arizona’s new immigration law?
38% Agree
51% Disagree
11% Not sure
* Methodology…
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on July 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
* TPM’s tracker of all surveys done on this race to date…
