Poll: Brady leads 34-30-9
Wednesday, Jun 16, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As I told subscribers this morning, Public Policy Polling has released more results from its latest poll. PPP’s April results are in parentheses…
Brady 34% (43)
Quinn 30% (33)
Whitney 9% (n/a)
Undecided 27% (24)
This is the first time that PPP included Green Party nominee Rich Whitney in its polling, so that led to some of the change since April.
* From the pollster…
Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is his own worst enemy. 50% of Illinois voters disapprove of him, while only 27% of voters approve and 23% have no opinion. His opponents are generally unknown. 56% of voters have yet to form an opinion of Republican Bill Brady and 80% are unsure of Green Party candidate Rich Whitney.
In a horserace Brady comes out on top with 34% of the vote, even though he is unknown amongst a majority of voters. Governor Quinn follows with 30% and Whitney receives a meager 9%. This may be a sign of people voting against Quinn, not for Brady.
It appears that Governor Quinn has not recovered from his primary battle. 62% of Democrats either disapprove (37%) or have no opinion (25%) of their party’s nominee.
While the same is true for Brady—62% of Republicans either disapprove or have no opinion of their party’s nominee—only 10% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Brady. Quinn has an uphill battle, as he has to regain the support of Democrats who know him and dislike him. Brady simply has to get his name out.
* Quinn is only getting 51 percent of the Democratic vote, which is just plain horrible…
And check out how badly the governor is doing with women voters…
Racial breakdown…
This is what you’d call an extremely unmotivated Democratic electorate.
* More from the pollster…
Quinn’s numbers really haven’t changed much at all over the course of the three Illinois polls PPP has conducted this year. The chances of his actually convincing Illinois voters they like him by November do not seem very good. But he can make voters in this strongly Democratic state think that Brady is an even worse alternative and there’s a lot of room for him to make that argument with most voters not yet having formed an opinion about the GOP nominee.
Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who got 10% of the vote in 2006, is polling at 9% in this poll. It will be interesting to see if he can keep up that level of support. Rod Blagojevich’s reelection was pretty much a foregone conclusion by election day last time so disaffected Democrats could safely cast a vote for Whitney without it resulting in the election of a Republican Governor. It doesn’t look like that will be the case this time and Whitney could see an erosion in support if Democrats who don’t like Quinn still end up voting for him because they feel the need to keep Brady from being elected.
Brady is still favored here but he is not strong enough on his own merits as a candidate for this race to turn into a blowout. It should be competitive into the fall.
Thoughts?