* According to Rasmussen, Bill Brady’s position is improving, probably because of a decent amount of TV ads run by Brady and the Republican Governors Association. However, the 4-point movement since the last poll in April is within (just barely) the poll’s margin of error. Numbers in brackets are from previous Rasmussen polls taken on April 28, April 5 and March 8…

Brady: 47% [45%, 45%, 47%]
Quinn: 36% [38%, 38%, 37%]
Some Other Candidate 8% [5%, 7%, 6%]
Not sure 10% [11%, 10%, 9%]

From the pollster…

Despite Brady’s narrow primary win, he now has the support of 80% of Republican voters. By comparison, Quinn who also narrowly defeated a primary challenger gets just 60% of Democratic votes. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican by better than two-to-one.

As I told subscribers months ago, this race is closer than the toplines make it appear for that very reason. Quinn will eventually heal the primary’s wounds, particularly when he begins to define Brady. If Quinn was getting 80 percent of the Democratic vote right now, this thing would be within single digits. Quinn’s big problem, however, is that his intensity of support is so low among his own base, as those Rasmussen (and other pollsters’) results clearly show.

* Favorables for Quinn…

Very favorable 12%
Somewhat favorable 30%
Somewhat unfavorable 24%
Very unfavorable 28%
Not sure 6%

Favorables for Brady…

Very favorable 14%
Somewhat favorable 33%
Somewhat unfavorable 18%
Very unfavorable 15%
Not sure 21%

Lots more not sure about Brady than about Quinn, which is predictable. Also, Brady’s very faves and very unfaves are equal, while Quinn’s very unfaves are well more than twice his very faves. Not good for the incumbent.

* Quinn also doesn’t exactly inspire confidence…

How confident are you that Governor Pat Quinn will make the right choices when it comes to cutting state spending?

8% Very confident
29% Somewhat confident
29% Not very confident
31% Not at all confident
4% Not sure

And his job approval numbers haven’t moved much…

How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

8% Strongly approve
34% Somewhat approve
23% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

* Methodology…

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on June 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.