* Eric Zorn makes an important point about polling in his column today. He notes that four years ago, much like this time around, polls showed Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich trailing his Republican opponent, Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.

The big difference between then and now was that Blagojevich began running TV ads in mid April bashing Topinka…

Less than one month after the primary, he was on the air with a series of “What’s she thinking?” TV commercials attacking Topinka’s opposition to a hike in the minimum wage and to an assault weapons ban.

Even though Topinka was fairly well-known to voters — three-term state treasurer, suburban social moderate — the Blagojevich campaign defined her as an erratic extremist before she could define herself, thus forcing her to play defense through the summer and fall.

Those ads tanked JBT’s numbers for good. She dropped to ten points behind and never moved any closer. Another difference between then and now, Zorn rightly notes, is that Gov. Quinn doesn’t have the sort of campaign apparatus that RRB had back then. He’s also lacking Blagojevich’s giant pile of cash…

But when Quinn does finally hit the campaign trail, he’ll do so with far less money than Blagojevich had, in part because of new state ethics laws that block major state contractors from filling political coffers. Though updated campaign-finance reports aren’t yet available, we know Quinn entered the last few weeks of the primary season with a cash balance of about $3 million, compared to an estimated $14 million Blagojevich had heading into his lightly contested 2006 primary. Blagojevich ended up spending $27 million on his re-election bid.

Zorn adds more context on his blog…

Topinka and Blagojevich raised nearly identical amounts of money during the stretch run, roughly $4.9 million, but Blagojevich had more than $12.2 million in the bank at the end of June, compared to $1.5 million for Topinka.

Quinn likely spent every dime he had in the primary. And because he has angered the public employee unions to no end, he doesn’t have access to their cash right now when he may need it most. And then there’s this…

Furthermore, 2006 was a good year for Democrats overall — they picked up six seats in the U.S. Senate and 30 in the U.S. House, running against the party of a Republican president with sagging approval ratings. Today, every projection has 2010 being a good year for Republicans — they figure to pick up dozens of seats running against the party of a Democratic president with sagging approval ratings.

2006 was a great year for the Illinois Senate Democrats, who picked up a super majority. Speaker Madigan refused to go on offense, believing Blagojevich would be a drag on the ticket. Blagojevich’s close pal Tony Rezko was, indeed, indicted just days before the election, but Madigan was dead wrong about the environment and he picked up just one seat. That inaction could cost him the House this fall if the Republicans manage to pull off another landslide year, but I digress.

Quinn is essentially fiddling while Rome burns.

* Other campaign stuff…

* Ill. State Rep Jumps in Chicago Aldermanic Race

* Trying to read the tea leaves: The Tea Party, the incipient movement that claims to be committed to reining in what they perceive as big government, appears to be motivated by more than partisanship and ideology. Approximately 45% of Whites either strongly or somewhat approve of the movement. Of those, only 35% believe Blacks to be hardworking, only 45% believe Blacks are intelligent, and only 41% think that Blacks are trustworthy.

* Bundle of Republicans seek national committeman’s job

* Township Democrats spurn corrupt post

* Kirk holds fundraising edge on Giannoulias

* Giannoulias tries to change focus from Broadway Bank

* Giannoulias seeks distance from Broadway Bank controversy