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Tuesday, Apr 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dear Gov. Pat Quinn,

Dude, your job rating numbers are quickly sinking into George Ryan territory. Public Policy Polling has teased tomorrow’s results. They have your approval rating at 25 percent, with your disapproval at 53. Yikes, man.

Releasing violent criminals from prison and then refusing to punish those responsible, and then pardoning a bunch of former criminals last week ain’t doing you much good, either. Just sayin’.

Also, two months since the primary and you still have no campaign manager? What are you smoking, man?

* Dear state Sen. Bill Brady,

There is not a single, up-to-date, reputable study that shows anything like the estimate you just gave for how much the new federal health care bill will cost Illinois government…

“Estimates range in an additional $2 (billion) to $6 billion in costs just to the public sector”

But this is not a bad argument at all…

“[Governor Quinn] criticizes my 10-percent reduction in spending, but yet he threatens to reduce classroom spending by 17 percent. He talks about eliminating 33 percent of the state troopers and putting the safety of the public at risk. He talks about eliminating 33 percent of funding for local and municipal governments, putting their public safety at risk.”

* Dear Forrest Claypool,

You showed today that you’re trying to piece back together the liberal/black coalition which so badly frayed during your 2006 primary race against Cook County Board President John Stroger. But having Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. at your side during today’s press conference won’t exactly help you burnish those reformer credentials. And while your message packed some real punches and was filled with lots of headline fodder, your delivery style needs more than a little work…

I almost fell asleep watching that thing.

* Dear Sheila Simon,

You need a better answer than this…

Question: Your only real elected experience was on the Carbondale City Council. Is that enough to be in the second-highest elected position in our state?

Answer: At a meeting, we were talking about democracy being the same at small towns, bigger towns and at the state level. We need more people participating. I learned many lessons working on the Carbondale City Council that can apply to the state of Illinois. We want to encourage people to pay attention and be part of the process. We encourage people to vote. Our history of corruption in the state shows more people need to be involved in the governing process.

Gobbledygook.

* Dear Illinois State Fair,

Is cover band “Kiss Army” really a grandstand-worthy act on a Saturday night? I will go see Cheap Trick, but all those bubble gum country pop acts are a bit much.

* Dear national media,

Stop enabling this clown…

Is Rod Blagojevich done with television? Don’t count on it.

In a conference call with members of the media on Tuesday, Blagojevich, who was ejected on Sunday from “The Celebrity Apprentice,” said he’s got another “potential” reality show in the works and he’s said he’s also participating in a documentary.

* Your turn…

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Big drop, but not out

Tuesday, Apr 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democratic US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias has had a horrible two months in the news media. His family bank’s troubles, replete with all the attendant weirdness of Outfit juice loans and whatnot, have prompted story after story wondering whether he might be pushed out of the race.

Up until today, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Giannoulias ahead of Republican Mark Kirk 43-37. But that’ll drop as soon as RCP plugs in the new Public Policy Polling survey…

Giannoulias 33
Kirk 37

TPM’s polltracker has the average now in favor of Kirk…

Notice that both candidate averages are trending downwards, but Giannoulias’ is far steeper. That’s partly a matter of how the polls were conducted. As the Hotline pointed out the other day, at least one of the earlier pollsters grossly undersampled senior citizens, which would result in giving the Democrat an edge. Kirk leads Giannoulias 39-31 among seniors in the new PPP poll.

* Even though he’s fallen quite a bit, Giannoulias is still hanging in there. And there is a way back, as PPP discusses today…

The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he’s getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote. It’s not that a lot of Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Kirk, but 36% of them are undecided right now compared to just 16% of Republicans. That suggests Democratic voters don’t really know what to make of Giannoulias’ problems right now so they’re just taking a wait and see approach to the race.

This is a good point…

“The undecided Democrats will decide this race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Will they come home and support Giannoulias in the end, will they stay at home, or will they cross party lines to vote for Kirk? We don’t know that answer yet.”

Kirk has been running TV and radio ads lately, but they haven’t done much to help him as of yet. This is all about Giannoulias right now, which is right where Kirk wants it to be. That won’t last if Giannoulias has the cash to burn in the message with those undecided Democrats and Democratic leaning independents that Kirk is just another Republican obstructionist…

Giannoulias wants to make the election a referendum on Illinois’ favorite son Obama, which has a much better shot at working here than anywhere else. Kirk has tried to portray himself as a moderate, but being against Obama right down the line will make him look like a run-of-the-mill Republican obstructionist come November. Kirk walked right into the trap on health care.

* Other PPP results…

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
50% Approve
42% Disapprove
8% Not Sure

Do you think that Republicans should work to repeal the health care bill that was passed last week?
42% Yes
47% No
10% Not Sure

Do you support or oppose President Obama’s health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
46% Support
43% Oppose
11% No Opinion

Those Obama numbers are the lowest I’ve seen so far in Illinois. We’ll have to wait and see what other polls show before making a judgment there.

Methodology of the automated poll…

PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.

…Adding… Pollsters really need to start plugging in the Green Party candidate. In a year like this, the Green might do well.

* Related…

* Alexi’s good deal

* Bank woes hurting Democrat vying for Senate seat in Illinois

* Democrats stand by Illinois US Senate candidate as race for Obama’s old seat turns stormy

* Barack Obama’s old Senate seat in danger of turning Republican

* What To Do If You’re Tea Party And It’s The Illinois Senate Race

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