* Yet another poll has state Sen. Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn by a ten-point margin. Public Policy Polling has posted its new numbers. Rasmussen’s results from early March are in parentheses…

Bill Brady 43 (47)
Pat Quinn 33 (37)

An incumbent Democrat in a Democratic state polling in the low thirties is absolutely horrific. There’s just no other way to say it. And setting aside Quinn’s own fate, he’s gotta somehow turn this around or he could take down a whole lot of Democrats this fall. Toplines and crosstabs are here.

From the pollster…

Part of Quinn’s problem within his own party is the same as that of Alexi Giannoulias- many Democrats who aren’t too high on him aren’t choosing a side for now. 28% of Democrats are undecided while only 13% of Republicans are. But Quinn is in a deeper hole than his party’s Senate nominee because 19% of Democrats have already decided to support Brady for Governor compared to only 10% going for Mark Kirk against Giannoulias.

There were contentious primaries on both sides for Governor, but the numbers indicate that the Republicans have unified around Brady while Democrats are just as divided about Quinn as they were two months ago. Only 37% of voters in his party say they approve of the job the Governor is doing to 36% who disapprove, that 1 point net approval pretty much analogous to his one point victory in the primary. For Brady though 44% of Republicans now see him favorably, more than double the percentage of the vote he won in February, while only 11% have a negative opinion of him.

More…

There’s virtually nothing positive that can be derived from Quinn’s poll numbers. Democrats only approve of him by the smallest of margins, 37/36. African Americans disapprove of him by a 24/37 spread, although they still plan to vote for him 51-17. Only 23% of independents and 10% of Republicans think he’s doing a good job.

“It’s very unusual for someone with Pat Quinn’s approval numbers to get reelected,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Maybe voters won’t like what they see once they become more familiar with Bill Brady but for now Republicans are strongly favored to win this race.”

Quinn’s best hope is that the economy turns around a bit and that he can make Brady look like evil incarnate. But the governor doesn’t even have a campaign team in place yet, while Brady is busily putting together the infrastructure he’ll need in the fall.

* Methodology…

PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.