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SurveyUSA: 45-37-14
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally. Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of ±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…
I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high. Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.
This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.
Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…
We’re expecting some new ads very soon.
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Latest state treasurer TV ads - both negative
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The two candidates for state treasurer have been arguing back and forth over negative ads. Christine Radogno got the ball rollling with this spot, which, for the first time ever, uses the words of a state party chairman of the opposing party to slam an opponent… And then Alexi Giannoulias came right back at her with this ad, which Radogno has demanded that he pull off the air. Meanwhile, Giannoulias told the Southern Illinoisan that he’s “sick” of the negative ads. “We’re sick of attack ads,†Giannoulias said. “Let’s talk about ideas. People need solutions, and I can tell you that talking about the things my opponent or other people before me have done is not providing a solu-tion.†Not included in the article was a single mention of Giannoulias’ own negative ad. ![]()
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Fun with phones
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Clever. A dirty trick that is disguised as simply supplying information for voters.
I asked the Duckworth campaign about this after a comment about the goings-on appeared here at the blog.
Listen to the robocall by clicking here. [wav file] Meanwhile, Laura Bush was in town today for Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.
Also, Roskam just sent out a release promising a “Late breaking special campaign announcement” tomorrow morning.
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Yet another coinkydink?
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Dan Curry is a blogger, but he also works for the Topinka-Birkett campaign. With that in mind, have a look at his latest entry.
And guess who brought that contract to the State Board of Investments? A company connected to Nick Hurtgen. Go read the whole thing.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Will people cast a protest vote for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who most likely can’t win, or will they vote for one of the two major party candidates? Most importantly, what will be Whitney’s final percent?
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Neanderthal comment won’t die
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The governor’s over the top “defense” of his wife’s business dealings with people connected to state government won’t go away. The guv defended her by attacking critics as “Neanderthals.” The result is the governor’s campaign took a story buried on the same Friday that Stu Levine pled guilty and kept it alive for almost a week by injecting a bogus claim of sexism into the equation. Topinka added more fuel to the fire yesterday.
That’s the very same appearance of conflict that all state employees are warned to avoid. It’s the same conflict that all attorneys, reporters and just about anyone with any common sense avoids. And since Mrs. Blagojevich only did the one deal this year, it shouldn’t be asking too much of her to check to see if there were any potential conflicts of interest. This is the old way of doing business. The very old way. Here’s more from a Southern Illinoisan columnist (I assume it’s Jim Muir, but I didn’t see a name listed).
Meanwhile, the Tribune editorial board is sick of the governor’s attacks on Topinka.
Topinka struck back against some of the attacks yesterday. NBC5:
A Lee Newspapers article, not a column, compared the governor to George Ryan. Gov. Rod Blagojevich appears to have ripped a page from his predecessor’s playbook as he seeks to seal up support for a second term. And Kristen McQueary wonders what’s up with the female vote? Alas, impossible-to-please women voters are to blame for forcing female politicians to downplay their feminine attributes, even though we gossip about them anyway.
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Copley treasurer: 39-33-7, 21 percent undecided
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The new Copley poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Christine Radogno by just six points, 39-33, with 7 percent for the Green Party candidate and a whopping 21 percent still undecided.
Here are the most recent polls in the race, including the latest Copley poll:
There really isn’t much else in the story except the numbers in the other down-ballot races:
Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has a story on the battle entitled “Youth seems to be trumping experience in treasurer race” and the AP has a piece on Radogno’s objection to Giannoulias’ latest campaign ad.
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Morning shorts
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Daily Herald: Sort through the charges and counter-charges, however, and what emerges is that none of the four congressional candidates is putting forth a plan that would keep Social Security from going bankrupt after Baby Boomers retire and there aren’t enough workers left to keep the program afloat. * Oy: Voting equipment glitches lingering * And another oy: Early voters finding machines aren’t without faults * Brown: Obama’s dealings with Rezko buy a parcel of questions * Sneed has a bit about those state mailers to families of “newborns” from the governor * St. Amand: “I racked my brain to come up with Dan Hynes as the Democrat and Carole Pankau as the Republican in the comptroller’s race. I knew Alexi Giannoulias was the Democrat running for treasurer, but I couldn’t spell his name. And I drew a blank on Christine Radogno as the Republican candidate.” * Bernie: GOP worried about ‘throwaway’ votes for Whitney * Tridgell: They can’t drive [on Tollway] much faster than 55 * Privatized lottery: The ticket to ride? * Web tactic on foe’s behalf upsets appellate court candidate * Parties thinking small to get votes - Microtargeting helps find sympathetic ears * Tribune: The two candidates running to replace retiring Cook County Sheriff Michael Sheahan agree the department must be modernized and should embrace a more effective use of technology. Beyond that, there is little common ground linking Democrat Tom Dart and Republican Peter Garza.
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Copley guv: 44-40-7
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.
If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls: * 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)
That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten. Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor. Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so. SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs. The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.
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