The home stretch
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Site traffic is up well over 50 percent in the past two months. The election is bringing a lot of new people to the blog and with it some new tensions in the comments section.
For you newbies, please observe a few simple rules. And for those of you who have been around awhile, give yourself a refresher by reading what’s posted below.
* Bizarre conspiracy theories like one posted today - Copley fabricated a poll that was favorable to a Republican in order to help the Democrats - are seriously frowned upon. Perhaps there are some of you reading this now who don’t think this theory was all that bizarre. My advice to those people is to go somewhere else. In the past, you would have been publicly derided for your goofiness, but since the theorists are multiplying, I’m just gonna delete your posts without argument and put you into comment moderation (all your comments will then be held for approval by me), and perhaps banish you forever.
* “Does not” “Does too” “Does not” “Does too” flame wars are boring and stupid. I know that elections can get the blood boiling, but please refrain from wasting everyone’s time with such nonsense. Deletions are certain, moderation is probable, banishment is possible if you persist in being a jerk.
* Try to say something original, not regurgitate something you saw somebody say on another blog. Derision will surely follow. Eventual moderation is likely.
* Profanity in any form is not allowed. Using strategically placed symbols like @ or # or $ won’t work, either. 100 percent deletion, very likely permanent moderation, possibility of perpetual banishment.
* Posting a bumper sticker slogan like “Vote Peraica” as your only comment is incredibly goofy. Deletion is probable. Repeat violations will result in moderation. Banishment for worst offenders.
* Rumors or even “facts” that you fervently believe to be true because you heard it from someone you consider to be a reliable source should be e-mailed to reporters or the feds, not posted here. Immediate deletion, permanent moderation, likely banishment.
* Let’s all try to be somewhat nice to each other, despite our disagreements. Elections end, politicians come and go, hot button issues ebb and flow, but we’ll always be here… or something like that.
Thanks much.
- Rich
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New poll has “dead heat” in guv’s race
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Copley poll: 44-40-7
Sorry. I was out of the office and couldn’t link to the story.
… 9 percent remain undecided.
The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Other recent polls have indicated a much wider margin in favor of Blagojevich.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll of 625 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 30-31.
The poll also shows that large numbers of votes still have unfavorable opinions of both Topinka and Blagojevich, but recent stories about federal investigations into corruption in state government are taking a toll on Blagojevich’s support.
These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22.
We can pretty much bet that Blagojevich is stalled in the mid-40s, where he’s been for months. The real question has been for weeks whether voters would actually vote for a third party candidate or whether they were just temporarily parked there instead of sitting in the undecided column.
Also, there are still quite a few undecideds in this poll. Hopefully, Copley will tell us who those people are - since that would seem to be the most important part of this story.
[Let’s close comments on this. Go here for more discussion on Copley’s poll.]
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Neanderthal, continued…
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
A couple of stories about the governor’s wife doing business with a state contractor. This one was just posted:
Republican candidate for governor Judy Baar Topinka says she wants to restrict money that immediate family members of the governor and other constitutional officers can earn.
Topinka said at a press conference today in Chicago that she would propose prohibiting outside income to family members from lobbyists and state contractors.
Her proposal comes amid news reports that Governor Rod Blagojevich’s wife Patti, a real estate broker, has business dealings with people who have a financial stake in the administration’s actions.
And this one ran in the morning, but I forgot to post it.
Republican Judy Baar Topinka on Tuesday rejected Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s complaint that coverage of his wife’s business was sexist, suggesting his comment was meant to divert attention from serious ethics questions.
“Being female, I know what is sexism. It’s not sexism at all. It’s arrogance of power, not wishing to answer a question,” Topinka said in a telephone interview. “It really is a dumb comment — and probably diversionary on top of it.” […]
Blagojevich refused Tuesday to discuss his previous comments about a “Neanderthal and sexist” news story on his wife’s real estate dealings with a couple who have a financial stake in his administration’s decisions. […]
At a news conference to announce his endorsement by a gun-control group, Blagojevich said he would let others decide whether the coverage was unfair and he praised his wife as both a mother and a business owner.
A Chicago newspaper reported last week that Patricia Blagojevich made $113,700 — her only commissions this year — from a couple with a stake in the Blagojevich administration’s actions. Anita Mahajan has a no-bid state contract that began before Blagojevich took office. Amrish Mahajan runs a bank with requests pending before state regulators.
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
Should campaign contributions be capped in Illinois?
Comments are a bit short, so let me add this…
If so, at what levels? If not, why?
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AP fact checks guv
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
The AP points out a major flaw in the governor’s self defense.
When asked whether [Tony Rezko and Stu Levine’s] conduct raises questions about his judgment, Blagojevich answered it shows the need for strong systems to root out corruption.
Blagojevich says a lot of the things Levine pleaded guilty to occurred before his administration had an inspector general. He says he believes the system is much better today.
However, Blagojevich first appointed an inspector general for his office in April 2003. Based on his guilty plea, Levine’s crimes continued until at least May 2004.
There is no indication Blagojevich’s inspector was involved in discovering the offenses that are part of a federal corruption probe.
This story shows once again that every word he says has to be checked and double-checked. He will say anything. That attribute makes him an incredibly good campaigner, as long as his opponent doesn’t have the cash to respond, but it doesn’t exactly make him a fount of reliable information.
As I wrote in this morning’s Capitol Fax, the “say anything” campaign is epitomized in this radio ad [wav file], which accuses her of all sorts of nasty things, including how she “runs down those who honor our veterans” and claiming she wants to raise taxes.
And here’s another one just like it.
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Negativity
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
The governor’s race takes another nasty turn.
…Gov. Rod Blagojevich said his barrage of attack TV ads against Republican Judy Baar Topinka is only an effort to show voters how the two candidates differ on the issues. But Blagojevich’s campaign on Tuesday also used claims made in a Downstate gun-rights newsletter to claim Topinka supports allowing citizens to carry concealed firearms.
In a recent issue of the Gun News, a group member reported that Topinka had said in a conversation that she would sign a concealed-carry bill “as soon as the legislature could get it to her desk.”
Campaigning in the southwest suburbs, Topinka said she was opposed to so-called concealed-carry laws and was shocked by the governor’s allegation. But when asked if she would veto a concealed-carry bill if it passed the legislature, she said she “probably would, yes.”
Later, she said, she was adamantly opposed to concealed-carry laws
“I don’t support concealed-carry. Period,” she said.
It’s difficult to defend yourself against a well-funded opponent who will literally say anything to win.
Meanwhile, Christine Radogno’s campaign demanded that Alexi Giannoulias pull a TV ad off the air. From a press release:
State Sen. Christine Radogno, Republican nominee for Illinois treasurer, today called television ads run by her Democratic opponent Alexi Giannoulias false distortions designed to deflect attention from his refusal to explain loans his bank made to crime figures and asked that he provide proof of his sources or remove his ad from the airwaves.
In a negative ad released yesterday by the Giannoulias campaign, it claims Radogno voted to raise telecom and utility rates by 22 percent and cites a Chicago Sun Times story from Oct. 23. A search on the Sun-Times website found no stories with the words Radogno and utility rates. Nowhere in the only news story on October 23rd that discusses utilities does Radogno’s name appear nor does the story mention a vote by the General Assembly, said Radogno.
“This is simply a desperate distortion by Alexi Giannoulias,†said Radogno. “He is again attempting to deflect attention from the fact that he has refused to answer questions about his involvement in loans he and his family’s bank made to organized crime figures. It’s no coincidence that he chose to run this negative ad at the same time new polls show this race is a dead heat.â€
Maybe so, but a whole lot of Democratic legislators are being whacked but good by their Republican opponents this fall for taking campaign contributions from utilities and for voting for the 1997 electric dereg bill - the basis for the slam against Radogno. I didn’t see Radogno standing up for them. While it may be an unfair hit, it’s been a common refrain this year.
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Turnout myths
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
The focus in the media for the next week will be largely on voter turnout. But how accurate will the reporting be? This excellent piece has been making the rounds of the blogs all week, but I keep forgetting to post it. The 5 myths of voter turnout, by Michael McDonald, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
1) Thanks to increasing voter apathy, turnout keeps dwindling.
This is the mother of all turnout myths. There may be plenty of apathetic voters, but the idea that ever fewer Americans are showing up at the polls should be put to rest. What’s really happening is that the number of people not eligible to vote is rising — making it seem as though turnout is dropping. […]
3) Negative ads turn off voters and reduce turnout.
Don’t be so sure. The case on this one is still open. Negative TV advertising increased in the mid-1980s, but turnout hasn’t gone down correspondingly. The negative Swift boat campaign against Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., apparently did little to depress turnout in the 2004 presidential race.
Some academic studies have found that negative advertising increases turnout. And that’s not so surprising: A particularly nasty ad grabs people’s attention and gets them talking. People participate when they’re interested.
The danger of going negative is that voters may perceive the attacks as unfair. So campaigns tend to stick to “contrast ads,” in which candidates contrast their records with those of their opponents. When people see stark differences between candidates, they’re more likely to vote.
Go read the whole thing, especially if you’re an editorial writer, reporter, columnist or pundit.
Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has the latest on early voting.
Though most votes will be cast next Tuesday, almost 40,000 city and suburban voters have taken advantage of early voting, which ends Thursday. More than 5,000 voters filled out ballots Tuesday, and election officials expect even more to vote today and Thursday at election offices, village halls and libraries.
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Remember, these Richard Day poll numbers are pretty old, but I doubt it will make much difference in the blow-out down-ballot races. However, Day’s ancient numbers may very well be a lot different now in the still somewhat volatile treasurer’s race.
* SoS & Treasurer:
In the race for secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Jesse white has a commanding lead. 65 percent of likely voters polled support White. He’s well ahead of Republican Dan Rutherford who has 24 percent. Green party candidate Karen Peterson picked up 6 percent. 5 percent of voters surveyed are still undecided. […]
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is leading, but there are still a lot of voters that have to make up their minds. Giannoulias leads Christine Radogno by 9 points, 43-to-34. Green party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 6 percent. 18 percent remain undecided.
* Attorney General & Comptroller:
…Democrat Lisa Madigan gets 68 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Stewart Umholtz with 22 percent. Green party candidate David Black Is at 3 percent and 7 percent still undecided. […]
Incumbent Democrat Daniel Hynes received 59 percent, followed by Carole Pankau with 21 percent. Green party candidate Alicia Snyder was at 6 percent. Undecided– 14 percent.
* And pollster Richard Day sums it up for the Daily Herald.
“It looks like it could be a sweep,†said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “There’s no one to pull up the bottom of the ticket (for Republicans).â€
That’s a reference to Judy Baar Topinka, who leads the GOP ticket this fall but whom the poll showed has had a tough time generating enthusiasm for her campaign against scandal-battered Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
The statewide survey of 603 likely voters was taken Oct. 16-22 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. […]
With the poll showing wide Democratic margins, voters could be getting ready Nov. 7 to give one party control of all statewide offices, reminiscent of 1994, when then-Gov. Jim Edgar led a Republican sweep. In 2002, voters gave Democrats control of the General Assembly, governor’s mansion, Illinois Supreme Court and all statewide offices, except for treasurer.
* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald tries to explain why its Cook County Board President poll was so different from the Tribune’s poll.
* And if you think Richard Day and the media outlets should be ashamed of himself for polling only 300 Cook County residents over several days and then sitting on the results for 8 days, check this out:
Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley appears to be politically weathering last summer’s high-profile city hall hiring fraud convictions as he looks toward re-election, a Daily Herald/ABC 7 Chicago poll shows.
Daley led his most prominent potential challenger, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr., by a better than 2-to-1 margin, 65 percent to 24 percent, according to the early survey. […]
The survey of 154 likely voters was taken Oct. 16 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 8 percentage points.
Unreal.
By the way, Day used his rating method to guage voter interest in several issues.
The bitter political atmosphere is reflected in poll results that had voters say their top reason for supporting both Blagojevich and Topinka in the governor’s race, as well as Republican David McSweeney against Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th District contest, is they disliked the opponents. Additionally, Democratic Cook County Board president hopeful Todd Stroger was viewed negatively by 53 percent of those surveyed.
Voters rated “promoting ethics and honesty in government†as their top concern in the statewide survey, giving it an 8.9 on the 1-10 scale. Job creation placed second at 8.5, crime concerns came in third at 8.4, increasing school funding was fourth at 8.2, and state budget problems fifth at 8.1.
Illegal immigration scored only a 6.8 — not as strong as one might expect, given the Republican focus on the issue this year, Day said.
In the 6th Congressional District race, immigration was cited by 9 percent of those polled as their primary reason for supporting Republican Peter Roskam, who has attacked Democrat Tammy Duckworth for being too soft on the issue. And in the 8th District race, only 2 percent listed immigration as their biggest reason for backing McSweeney over Bean.
Just because a political party focuses on an issue like immigration doesn’t mean voters will necessarily care all that much.
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Congressional roundup
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The national Dems upgraded Seals a few days back, but the Sun-Times has more detail about what they’re up to.
Democrat Dan Seals is finally getting the attention of the national Democrats in his drive to defeat Rep. Mark Kirk in a 10th District congressional race that is getting closer than expected.
The Democratic House political operation, after declining to initially spend any money on Seals in favor of better prospects, is paying for a series of direct-mail pieces in the closing week of the campaign after polls indicated Seals may be within striking distance of Kirk.
One small indication of interest in the Kirk-Seals contest: early voting in the village of Northbrook, which has the highest early turnout of any suburban municipality in Cook County, according to Cook County Clerk David Orr.
* Animal Farm adds this:
For a guy who clamored for more debates against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, Democrat Dan Seals sure treats his rare chances to debate Kirk funnily.
At the last minute, Seals pulled out of today’s debate in Waukegan. That’s the kind of behavior usually reserved for incumbents. True, it was a private event, but the public would have learned about the contrasting positions of Kirk and Seals through the newspaper reporting on the event. Seals did, however, have the time to stage a downtown news conference to try to keep alive an unflattering story about a Kirk staffer that’s now a week old.
‘The Tribune has the money roundup in the two big congressional races.
The Republican and Democratic national congressional committees have already poured more than $7 million into TV ads, mailings and phone calls in Illinois’ two hotly contested suburban contests, Federal Election Commission reports show, and millions more are expected to be spent in the hours before next week’s balloting. […]
In the 6th District contest, where veteran Republican Rep. Henry Hyde is retiring, the GOP committee has spent about $2.3 million while the Democratic committee has spent $1.7 million. In the 8th District, Democrats have spent $723,000 to help Bean defend the seat she won two years ago against longtime Republican Rep. Phil Crane.
Two years ago, the Republican committee spent $1.2 million on Crane’s behalf while the Democratic committee spent $880,000 to help Bean.
Bean received substantially less help from her party than her GOP counterpart because she is an incumbent. But the Democratic committee is expected to spend about $1 million more in the 8th District by Election Day as well as an additional $1 million in the 6th District, party sources said.
And the Daily Herald has a piece on worries about the third party candidate in Bean’s district.
Apparently worried that he could end up playing the spoiler in next Tuesday’s election, Democrats are telling voters in the suburban 8th Congressional District not to “throw away†their vote on the race’s third-party candidate.
A new campaign ad mailed on behalf of Congresswoman Melissa Bean, a Barrington Democrat, warns that casting an anti-war protest vote for peace activist Bill Scheurer could hurt Bean and derail Democrats’ attempt to win control of Congress.
“George W. Bush wants you to waste your vote,†reads the ad, which was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and sent to Democrats.
It also claims Scheurer was “propped up†by Bean’s Republican challenger, Barrington Hills investment banker David McSweeney.
More here.
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Morning shorts
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Southtown: Todd Stroger’s campaign is counting on a last-minute push from Chicago’s rock star of politics, Barack Obama, to put Stroger over the top in what still appears to be a tight race for Cook County Board president.
* Rezko owns vacant lot next to Obama’s home
* Sneed: Hmmm: Sneed hears rumbles a mink coat reportedly belonging to Michelle Obama, wife of Sen. Barack Obama, may have gone missing following the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s Saturday birthday bash at the South Shore Cultural Center.
* Lieutenant governor candidates spar over hiring investigation [Audio clips at site]
* Top donors as of late Monday night.
* Newspaper’s practices criticized during libel trial - Attorneys for chief justice say paper did not ensure columnist”s information was true
* Illinois Supreme Court justices testify in libel case
* Gubernatorial Wives’ Work Ethics–Now & Then
* Officials announce reforms at Cook County juvenile center
* Sun-Times: Politics is a dirty tricks business but when it comes to Halloween, the two gubernatorial candidates offered up only treats Tuesday night.
* Sun-Times: Mayor Daley has purchased $80,000 in radio time over the next six days to urge Chicago voters — with the help of his running mate, state Sen. Miguel del Valle (D-Chicago), — to support advisory referendums on Tuesday’s ballot.
* Richards: Don’t let upcoming election spook you
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