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Today’s number: $80 Million cash on hand

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From ICPR…

Hi Rich,

Here’s this week’s Illinois Sunshine update - we added up all of the funds on hand for both parties, and found that Dems have over $34 Million and the GOP has over $28 Million.

Just one month before the March 15th Illinois Primary, both political parties in Illinois have amassed major war chests to aid their goals of upsetting (or defending) the balance of power in state government. The Democratic side, consisting of Senate, House, Leadership, and Party Committees, currently holds over $34 Million. Illinois Republican funds, consisting of those plus the Governor’s committee, currently have over $28 Million ready to spend. The top three Super PACs in the state, each with an individual balance of over $1 Million, have a total of $16 Million in the bank.

This all amounts to nearly $80 Million in cash on hand between both parties. This is in addition to the $17 Million already spent in the first month and a half of 2016.

Democratic funds come mostly from rank and file committees and the Leadership committees (which have fewer contribution limits than a normal PAC.) The Republican side is financed mostly by the Governor’s candidate committee, which maintained an impressive and steady balance for most of 2015.

Senate, House and Super PACs

The 39 Democratic State Senators have over $10 Million in their committee funds, while the 20 Senate Republicans have $2.8 Million. Of that $2.8 Million, $550,000 comes from Republican Leader Christine Radogno’s PAC. Another $300,000 is from the committee for Sam McCann, who faces a fierce primary race for the 50th District.

In the House, the 71 Democratic members have raised $16.8 Million, while the 47 Republicans have only $4 Million available. Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin’s committee makes up $820,000 of House Republican funds.

Last but not least, there are three Super PACs that have set themselves apart in this election cycle by raising far more than any others (the fourth most funded, Personal PAC, has $690,707 on hand.) These totals are not included in the parties’ “Total Funds” above, but there are clear links between two of these committees and the Republican Party. The goal of Turnaround Illinois is to support the Governor’s agenda, and it has become the second highest donor to Liberty Principles PAC. The two groups also share donors. The IllinoisGO connection is more tenuous, but many believe it exists to fund Democrats who are willing to support the Governor’s agenda. Their heavy involvement in the Dunkin vs Stratton race has given weight to this theory.

These groups have already made a statement in certain races, and will almost certainly continue to do so until the General Elections in November.

Here’s the link to the entire update: http://conta.cc/24cVDmd. It is also included below.

Best,

Sarah Brune
Executive Director
Illinois Campaign for Political Reform

  15 Comments      


Happy birthday, Gov. Rauner!

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I had a brief moment of levity with Gov. Rauner last night. I was at the Illinois Legislative Black Caucus’ annual dinner and saw an AFSCME lobbyist with a small green button. I asked if I could have it so I could give it to the governor, who was a few feet away…

Rauner: What’s this?

Me: It’s a present. Put it on.

Rauner: What does it say?

Me: 200 Percent Union.

Rauner laughed and said he’d never wear it but would add it to his collection and put it in his pocket.

* So, at least I covered myself. Any other gift ideas? Humor only. No meanness, please…


  106 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fox Springfield

The running total on Comptroller Leslie Munger’s website shows the state has a bill backlog of more than $7.1 billion.

A senior Rauner administration official says the governor is not opposed to borrowing to start paying it off.

* The Question: Should the state borrow to pay off its bill backlog? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


polls & surveys

  74 Comments      


A bright spot

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois has had a “performance-based funding” statute on the books (Public Act 097-0320) since 2011. The idea is pretty good and it has received some national kudos. A brief explanation from the governor’s office…

- The universities’ performance formula generally focuses on:

    o Completion data, including degrees awarded and degrees per 100 students
    o Time to degree data, including graduation rates in 150% of time (6 yrs for a BA)
    o Cost efficiency, including cost per credit hour and cost per completion
    o Success of diverse populations, including Pell-eligible, adults over 25, African-American and Hispanic students
    o Success of student pursuing high-need fields, specifically STEM and healthcare
    o 3 year averages of all data

- The community colleges’ performance formula generally focuses on:

    o Completion of degrees and certificates, including a focus on at-risk students
    o Transfer rates to a four-year institution
    o Advancement of remedial students and adults over 25
    o Momentum points

* This is an incentive program. But the state hasn’t put much money behind the effort in the past, so the schools haven’t really paid much attention to it.

In FY 15, for instance, just $6 million was allocated for universities and only $352K for community colleges.

Gov. Rauner’s new budget has greatly upped the ante, with $50 million for four-year schools, and over $9 million for community colleges.

* The problems facing higher education right now are existential, with several schools on the brink of closing. So, this program is admittedly small-ball stuff. But it’s also the sort of thing we should be doing more of… if only we had a budget.

  22 Comments      


Caption contest!

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The great Bill Buckner was in town yesterday…

  50 Comments      


Controlling growth or a drastic cut?

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Department on Aging’s budget book

Enrollment in the Department on Aging’s Community Care Program (CCP) has significantly grown over the past 10 years, from 40,965 enrollees in 2005 to 83,787 enrollees in 2015, a 105% increase over a decade. Looking forward, the growth in Illinois’ aging population will also more than double by 2030, with an expected 57 percent increase in individuals aged 60 plus over the next 15 years. Sustaining CCP as it exists today will cost an additional $93.3 million in the next six years assuming the completion of the managed care transition by FY2018.

* The Community Reinvestment Program is a new initiative targeted to older adults who are not eligible for CCP who need assistance to live independently in the community.

* The initiative represents a long term strategy to maintain community-based supports for our current aging population as well to address the anticipated growth in the population its first year at a funding level of $225 Million.

* Transition individuals who are non-Medicaid eligible to a new Community Reinvestment Program (“CRP”).

    – Non-Medicaid eligible clients will have their DON score applied to the new service cost maximum table to derive a new individual spending allocation.
    – CRP will provide greater flexibility of services. The AAA Network (Area Agency on Aging) will be utilized as the mechanism for the coordination of preventative services.
    – Similar to other states, Illinois’ approach will maintain a service package for individuals that do not meet Medicaid eligibility requirements.
    – This approach will maintain the Department’s commitment to maintaining individuals in their own home and community and delay the number of admissions in nursing facilities, which is currently a large portion of the Medicaid budget at $1,583,008,257 per year out of the total spending for Medicaid Long Term Care.

* SEIU Healthcare is calling this an almost $200 million budget cut for 44,000 seniors…

1) The Bruce Rauner proposed FY17 budget dramatically cuts home care for seniors through a $197.6 million cut to the Illinois Department on Aging budget.

2) The Rauner budget would do this by splitting the Community Care Program (CCP), which currently provides home care services for roughly 84,000 seniors, into two programs: one for those covered by Medicaid, and a new “Community Reinvestment Program” for seniors not in Medicaid.

3) This proposal, if implemented, would have a substantial negative impact on the 43,700 seniors who the Rauner budget indicates would be moved to the “Community Reinvestment Program”

    · The $197.6 million cut represents average cut of $4,520 in services annually per affected senior
    · $4,520 is a 43% cut in services compared with the average amount of services seniors receive currently.

4) In CCP right now, the average cost of care per senior per year is roughly $10,430. The average cost to Medicaid of a nursing home is around $52,000 a year, or about five times as much.

5) The Rauner budget gives NO DETAILS about the nature of these cuts. The Illinois Department on Aging Budget presentation indicates that for seniors moved to the “CRP”

    · There would be a different set of services available than those available to them now
    · There would be different set of service cost maximums their services could not cost above.

  20 Comments      


Shimkus hits McCarter on Obamacare, Planned Parenthood, while McCann says “I’m being attacked because I did what was right for this district”

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* At first glance, Congressman John Shimkus’ TV attack ad about state Sen. Kyle McCarter looks even more unbelievable than the Club for Growth spot which accuses Shimkus of being one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress.

But the Shimkus folks did their homework, even if their rhetoric is way over the top. Watch the spot by clicking here.

* Script…

It’s Washington vs. you. Washington insiders picked Kyle McCarter. In Springfield he sides with the Chicago machine, voting to urge Congress to create Obamacare, and funding Planned Parenthood. Kyle McCarter doesn’t even live in our district. John Shimkus does. He’s fought Barack Obama, voting 66 times to limit or repeal Obamacare. It’s Kyle McCarter and the Washington insiders, or John Shimkus and you.

* From SR 254

Resolves that the time for a national solution to the American healthcare crisis that threatens the economic and physical health of the people of Illinois and people across the country is now and recognizes the urgent need for a national solution to the healthcare crisis that meets key criteria for comprehensive health care reform set forth by President Obama and Health Care for America Now.

Believe it or not, McCarter is recorded as voting “Yes” on that resolution.

And House Amendment 4 to SB2454 appropriated funding for “Family Planning Programs.” McCarter is recorded as voting “Yes.”

That’s gonna leave a mark.

* Meanwhile, here’s Sen. Sam McCann’s new TV ad

Script…

Hi. I’m Sam McCann. Representing hard working people, making sure their voices are heard. That’s the most important thing I do. Sometimes that upsets powerful people, but that’s okay. Sticking up for you and what you believe is what’s important. That’s what this race is really about. I’m being attacked because I did what was right for this district. Powerful politicians shouldn’t be able to punish hard-working families. Not if I have anything to say about it. I’m Sam McCann, asking for your vote.

Discuss.

* Related…

* Bernard Schoenburg: Local Republican leader critical of Gov. Rauner’s ‘ambush’ at GOP Lincoln Day Dinner

  35 Comments      


Fun with numbers

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the governor’s press office regarding the House passage this week of the so-called AFSCME “no strike” bill…

“Illinois taxpayers cannot afford HB 580 – it’s a $3 billion tax hike masquerading as a labor bill. If it becomes law, it will dig Illinois’ fiscal hole even deeper, further squeezing social services and, ironically, it will lead to layoffs.

* Tribune editorial

On Tuesday, Madigan’s House dissed the governor by passing a dangerous bill that would take the AFSCME negotiations out of the governor’s hands and submit the two sides to binding arbitration. A three-member panel would look at AFSCME’s desires and the governor’s offer and pick a winner. No let’s-split-the-difference compromise based on what Illinois could actually afford. Just pick a side. Feel lucky? The Rauner administration doesn’t. The stakes are absurdly high: The union’s demands could add another $3 billion in spending over the life of the contract.

* Part of AFSCME’s response…

The governor’s wildly exaggerated claim appears to reflect not union proposals but existing costs. AFSCME’s proposals on general wage increases would average just $58 million a year more than Rauner’s proposals over four years. AFSCME’s proposals on health care, steps, overtime and holiday pay do not increase status quo costs or employee compensation. Moreover, AFSCME has made clear that its latest proposals are not its bottom line, and that in contrast to the Governor’s adamant refusal to continue negotiating, the union is willing to negotiate further.

* Here’s the union’s cost comparison of wage proposals on the table in January, when talks ended. These are year by year, beginning Fiscal Year 2016 through FY 19…

* So, I asked the governor’s office for deets and they sent me this…

* I then asked AFSCME for a more detailed rebuttal…

Rich —

Here are the facts of the administration’s purported $3 billion claim. Clearly, as stated in what we provided to you yesterday, their numbers are wildly exaggerated and attempt to misrepresent status quo provisions as if they reflected new or added costs.

General Wage Increase- The administration’s figure is $530 million, including rollup for FICA and pension); my number is $497 million over four years. Either way it’s pretty close.

Step Increase- Their number is inflated by the inaccurate assumption that all step-eligible employees will receive steps for all four years of the contract. In fact, of the 40% of all employees eligible to receive steps, nearly half (45%) will reach the top step prior to the last year of the contract. Further, their calculation neglects the attrition savings that, as we pointed out yesterday, generally make steps cost-neutral (that is, steps are paid for by the savings realized when employees retire at step 8 and are replaced by new hires at step 1). Finally, the Union proposal does not change the current agreement so does not represent a new or additional cost.

Holiday Pay- The Union’s proposal does not change the current agreement, so this does not represent a new or additional cost.

Overtime Pay- The Union’s proposal does not change the current agreement, so this does not represent a new or additional cost.

Roll Call Overtime- The Administration withdrew its proposal and agreed to current language, so this does not represent a new or additional cost.

Additional Longevity Pay- The Union on Jan. 8 withdrew its proposal to increase longevity pay.

Temporary Assignment Pay- The Administration withdrew its proposal and agreed to current language, so this does not represent a new or additional cost.

Additional Payouts and Incentives- I have no idea what this refers to.

Indirect Impact of AFSCME agreement- The administration is charging $300 million in phantom costs that are associated with the impact of the AFSCME agreement on other union agreements. Those costs should be assigned to those other collective bargaining agreements, not AFSCME’s.

Health Insurance Savings- As we explained yesterday, the union’s health insurance proposal essentially represents the status quo, so it does not represent a new or additional cost. The Administration claims a value of $1.72 billion, which I suspect they produce by multiplying the savings in their FY 17 proposed budget ($566 million by 3 years). However, this savings is for the entire group health insurance program. Of the approximately 275,000 active employees and dependents enrolled in the state’s group health insurance, I estimate that just 80,000 (about 30% of the total) are AFSCME members and their dependents. So here again, the Administration is jacking up purported costs by including costs associated with other state employees and university employees, not just the 38,000 AFSCME state employees.

I hope this is helpful to you.

Martha Merrill
Director of Research and Employee Benefits
AFSCME Council 31

  52 Comments      


The trouble with Hillary

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WGN TV

Hillary Clinton had some harsh words for Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner and Illinois Republicans Wednesday during a campaign rally in Chicago.

“When I look at what’s happening here in Illinois, the Republican agenda to roll back the clock on everything that made the middle class strong in the 20th century, it’s pretty terrifying,” Clinton said.

* Sun-Times

Clinton also took swipes at Rauner, who gave his budget address Wednesday despite the fact that the state had operated without a budget for more than eight months because of gridlock in the Legislature over the governor’s “Turnaround Agenda.”

“His plan would turn Illinois around, all right,” Clinton said. “All the way back to the time of the robber barons at the start of the 19th century.”

20th Century. 19th Century.

Does she ever talk about the future?

* No offense meant at all to senior citizens, but Clinton not only talks mainly about the past, she also seems to surround herself with older people, and then wonders why she isn’t attracting any young folks to her campaign

Tuesday night in New Hampshire, 83% of voters aged 18-29 chose Sanders, according to exit polls. And those voters were a full one-fifth of the electorate. Sanders also won 78% of first-time voters. The only age demographic Clinton won? People 65 and older. […]

Clinton lost the vote among women Tuesday night, 44% to Sanders’ 55%, according to exit polls.

She also got clobbered among younger women.

* And guess who her new state press secretary is

Delmarie Cobb named Illinois Press Secretary for the Hillary For America campaign on Feb. 2, 2016. Since then Ms.Cobb no stranger to politics has been busy on the campaign trail making sure that Hillary is not only visible in Illinois but that she connects with the community.

Yes, the same person who backed Clinton in 2008 and who derided the Obama campaign’s pursuit of young voters. The same person who called Obama’s supporters kool aid drinkers. The same person who said, when speaking of her client Roland Burris, “We should be happy as Illinois citizens, because now we actually do have a senator who wants to be there.”

Of all the people who could’ve been chosen to be the face of Clinton’s campaign here and it’s Delmarie Cobb.

* She’s probably gonna murder me for suggesting this, but wouldn’t somebody like Rikeesha Phelon have been a much better pick? She’s young, respected by just about everyone and, above all, she has mad skills.

American politics is always about the future. Well, at least it is for the winners. Losers generally inhabit the past.

/rant

  75 Comments      


DOA

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tina Sfondeles at the Sun-Times

According to Rauner’s budget documents, he’s proposing $36.3 billion in spending but just $32.8 billion in revenue. The $3.5 billion difference is for “working together or executive management,” according to an administration official.

Forgetting for a moment that this fiscal year’s deficit isn’t addressed in next fiscal year’s budget proposal (which makes it even further out of whack), let’s take a look at this “executive management” proposal.

* From the budget book

    • Establish a wide array of spending reserves recognized and clearly enforceable by the comptroller;
    • Reduce provider rates that are currently set in statute;
    • Reduce or modify statutory transfers out of any state funds;
    • Reallocate balances from other state accounts into general funds; and
    • Alter or delay payments under continuing appropriations.

Passage of this legislation would allow the executive branch to make the needed spending reductions to bring spending in line with revenues and balance the budget. If enacted, the governor would neither reserve nor reduce General State Aid or early childhood education funding, ensuring we balance the budget while maintaining early childhood and General State Aid as our state’s top priorities. Furthermore, the governor would closely consult with the general assembly in making the difficult decisions necessary to balance the budget. In addition to protecting funding for General State Aid (K-12) and early childhood education, these powers could not extend to the Road Fund, debt service or payment of pension benefits to retirees.

The powers are extraordinary

“I am troubled by proposals that would appear to return to the days of skipping pension payments and raiding local funds to prop up state spending. That won’t help our state and it won’t help our local communities,” Cullerton said in a statement.

Remember how the governor came after local revenue sharing money last year? Well, every mayor in the state ought to be freaked out about this request.

* But, whatevs. It’s not going anywhere

Giving Rauner more budget power seems equally unpopular among Democrats. State Rep. Elaine Nekritz, a Northbrook Democrat, said the idea “gives me a lot of pause.”

House Speaker Michael Madigan, a Chicago Democrat and Rauner’s chief budget foil, highlighted their differences when asked about Rauner’s argument that previous governors have been given additional budget-cutting powers and pressed for what was different this time.

“The person occupying the governor’s office,” he said.

  49 Comments      


An attempt at rebutting the governor’s CPS claims

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Gov. Rauner’s budget address

We must fully fund this foundation level as a first step toward reforming our school funding formula. Our current formula doesn’t meet the needs of our children. Past attempts to fix the formula didn’t work because they pitted communities against each other.

This year, we are already seeing this cynical strategy being deployed. After years of financial mismanagement, our largest school system is threatening a lawsuit against the state. Such a course could set back funding formula reform for years to come, and ignores reality.

Not only did Chicago Public Schools ask for the current arrangement, they are benefiting from a special deal. CPS receives an extra $600 million more every year than school districts with similar student demographics. Any school funding reform proposal that involves taking money from one school district and giving it to another, is doomed to fail.

OK, first of all, if a federal lawsuit is filed and the plaintiffs win based on discriminatory school funding (and we’re worst in the nation, according to Senate President John Cullerton, which leads him to believe a suit could be successful), then that’ll radically change the playing field in favor of places like Chicago.

* Now, onto that $600 million figure. It was featured prominently in a recent Tribune op-ed by Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno

• Chicago has 18 percent of the state’s special education student population, but it receives 30 percent of state special education block grant funding.

• Chicago has fewer than 19 percent of all students in the state, but it receives approximately 27 percent of the state’s personal property replacement tax paid by corporations.

• Chicago has 30 percent of all low-income students in the state, but it receives more than 50 percent of all free breakfast and lunch dollars, 42 percent of poverty-based education funding and 37 percent of early childhood funding for at-risk students.

• Chicago’s population accounts for 25 percent of communities that receive supplemental property tax funding, yet CPS receives 88 percent of Property Tax Extension Limitation Law (PTELL) adjustment dollars.

All told, sweetheart deals yield CPS an additional $600 million in state education funding.

* I asked the Senate Democrats for a response…

Rich,

Two docs attached.

1 – Staff memorandum walking through legislative history that got us to the current school funding formula, along with staff’s rebuttal to Leader Radogno’s Trib op-ed from early December, and a walk up to how the SGOP maybe got to their $600 million figure

2 – An ISBE report indicating that if CPS were treated like all other districts, they would’ve received an extra $219.3 million from the state (not $600 million)

Both are exciting reads for a Wednesday night.

Enjoy.

* According to the SDEM staff memorandum, Rauner and Radogno are counting personal property replacement tax money received by both the city of Chicago and CPS. So, an argument about school funding ought to stick to school funding and not include municipal funding.

The staff memo also points out that the PTELL adjustment formula for CPS is the same as for all other districts

• The adjustment corrects the “double whammy” problem that existed in the GSA formula for tax capped districts:

    o Districts subject to PTELL cannot collect as much revenue as they might if they were not capped.
    o The General State Aid Foundation Grant formula assumes that they can access a certain percentage of local property wealth, which tax caps prevent, and so those districts would lose out on GSA Foundation funding.

• The adjustment has nothing to do with enrollment in a district but instead compares the current Equalized Assessed Valuation (EAV) of the district to the EAV at the time the district was subjected to tax caps.

The staff analysis claims that if the $58 million in PPRT was taken away from CPS, the district would get $50 million back from the foundation formula grant.

* You think pensions are hard to understand? Try school funding.

  32 Comments      


*** LIVE SESSION COVERAGE ***

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Watch it happen with ScribbleLive…


  8 Comments      


Rauner pension reform a “confusing but ultimately bogus justification to pay less”

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The governor’s budget book explains his pension reform plans. Here’s one of them

Funding Formula Based on Payroll

The funding formula that determines the state’s annual contribution to the pension systems sets the contribution at a level percentage of payroll for the years remaining in the funding schedule to try to provide a level of certainty in annual payments. Over the years, changes to the pension systems have excluded some payroll from the funding formula. Beginning in fiscal year 2017, the proposed plan calls for all payroll to be included in the calculation of contributions in order to provide more level payments. This would include the payroll for “Tier 2” members (those first hired after December 31, 2010).
Phase-In of Assumption Changes

The proposal includes a five-year phase-in of state contribution variations (up or down) caused solely by changes in actuarial assumptions (including revised investment return and discount factor assumptions) as set unilaterally by each pension system board. Changes in assumptions have increased pension liabilities by more than $12.5 billion in the last two years, causing significant deviations from the initially projected State contributions. Increases or decreases in state contributions attributable to assumption changes would be smoothed in over five years, which is the same period used for smoothing the effect of the deviation of actual investment returns from return assumptions. This phase-in will facilitate long-term planning for state pension contributions and will reduce payment volatility.

* From Sen. Daniel Biss, who has worked on pension reform for quite a while now…

Just an FYI:

What BVR calls “Funding Formula Based on Payroll” and “five-year phase-in of state contribution variations” both create “savings” by totally artificially and unjustifiably backloading the payment schedule.

* I asked him to explain…

“Funding formula based on payroll” means this:

We’re supposed to fund our pensions based on a “level percentage of payroll”. So the actuaries project how much payroll will grow over the years and that determines how steep the ramp is. If they assume payroll will grow fast, that results in a more backloaded funding schedule; if they assume it will grow slow, that’s a more frontloaded schedule.

This proposal says that instead of basing it on payroll which counts toward the pensions, it’s based on total payroll. What’s the difference? Total payroll includes salary that’s above the pensionable salary cap. But because the salary cap grows more slowly than the top salaries (ESPECIALLY for Tier 2 but likely also for Tier 1), that means they’re replacing the correct definition of payroll with a totally irrelevant one that happens to grow more quickly and therefore backloads the payments.

“Five-year phase-in of state contribution variations” means that when the pension board drops the investment return assumption, instead of making the proper (larger) payments based on the new assumption, they’re phasing that change in over 5 years. So the pension board says “we expect 7.5% investment returns” and the state says “OK, well we’ll start paying attention gradually, but only completely do what you tell us is required in 5 years.” In other words, during the course of those 5 years the state is deliberately putting in less money than the pension board expects to be necessary to meet the funding target.

What’s frustrating is that you can play these games forever. This stuff is complicated enough that if your goal is to find some confusing but ultimately bogus justification to pay less you have a very target-rich environment. I thought we weren’t supposed to do that any more though!

Biss is such a poindexter.

  68 Comments      


Tribune: You’re a “poindexter” if you look at Rauner’s actual budget

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* According to the Chicago Tribune editorial board, nobody but dorks should fret that the governor submitted a clearly unbalanced budget yesterday

Gov. Bruce Rauner addressed the Illinois General Assembly on Wednesday, outlining his plans for next year’s state budget. The poindexters whipped out their calculators.

But the crucial takeaway was broader than an exercise in number-crunching: We’re at the end of the road in Springfield. No more pavement, nothing but dirty orange barricades and languid yellow warning lights.

* But a pox on that unbalanced budget approving General Assembly

No one would have guessed on June 25, 2015, when Rauner vetoed the unbalanced-by-$4-billion budget Democratic leaders sent him, that the state would have no spending plan today. Yet here we are.

Unreal.

  74 Comments      


Study: Illinois’ “Electorate Representation Index” is highest in the nation

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Instead of being a horrific outlier, we’re apparently more like America than any other state…

Hi Rich,

With the results of the earlier primary-election states greatly affecting which candidates stay in the presidential race — raising the question of which state truly deserves the top spot in the primaries — the personal finance website WalletHub today released its 2016 Electorate Representation Index.

To determine which states fairly represent the U.S. electorate, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 50 states to the U.S. across five key categories: 1) Sociodemographics, 2) Economy, 3) Education, 4) Religion, and 5) Public Opinion.

Illinois’ Resemblance to the U.S.

    Overall Electorate Representation Index: 94.35%

Individual Category Index:

    Sociodemographics: 96.93%
    Economy: 96.62%
    Education: 97.09%
    Religion: 87.67%
    Public Opinion: 93.45%

For the full report, please visit:
https://wallethub.com/edu/electorate-representation-index/18190/

  25 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Feb 18, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

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At least 25 percent in higher ed cuts pushed

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The cuts are not as steep as last year’s budget proposal, but after almost 8 months with no state revenues, this seems a bit harsh…


  43 Comments      


Just like magic!

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sigh…



* Democratic Sen. Daniel Biss is not as harsh…

“Yesterday, I expressed my hope that Gov. Rauner would introduce a balanced budget in today’s address. In fact, he proposed two budgetary paths.

“The first path would allow him to unilaterally control spending and policy decisions, representing an abdication of the General Assembly’s responsibility and a breakdown in our system of representative government. It may constitute a balanced budget, but nobody thinks it’s the best way of handling things.

“The second path requires negotiation and compromise to produce an agreed-upon package of new revenues, spending changes and structural reforms. Clearly, everyone would prefer that we go down this path. However, his comments raise two crucial questions.

“First of all, while I agree that we must all compromise to reach an agreement, it is a shame that today’s address did not include Gov. Rauner’s preferred mix of revenues and spending cuts. Our system expects a governor make such a proposal, which then becomes a useful starting point for negotiations.

“Secondly, Gov. Rauner spoke extensively about our state’s real structural problems and demanded that structural reforms be a part of the solution. I agree. However, he continues to prioritize anti-worker reforms that would push down wages and harm the middle class. In fact, he continues to imply that states can only thrive economically if they embrace right-wing, anti-union policies. Of course, this assertion is utterly false.

“As we seek to enact the structural reforms that our state needs, we must be open to all points of view and all ideas, including Democratic ideas such as repealing our bizarre constitutional provision that mandates a flat income tax. I am confident that if Gov. Rauner is willing to have a truly open negotiation on the question of revenues, spending and reform, then we can come together in the spirit of compromise and move forward.

“I hope he is willing to engage in that fair process, and I hope it happens quickly. Our state is being grievously harmed by the current budget situation, and neither the vulnerable people who rely on our human services, nor the students who attend our institutions of higher education, nor the good people who provide those services should be forced to accept any more of this.”

  59 Comments      


Decatur Credit Unions “Lend A Hand”

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

The Greater Decatur Chapter of Credit Unions established the Lend A Hand charity in 2012. The program is designed to help people working through Decatur temporary employment agencies. Decatur area credit unions established this program after recognizing the need of workers receiving temporary employment. Those in temporary work situations are likely not receiving benefits from their employer because of the temporary nature of their work; however, they also may not qualify for government benefits because they are working. The Greater Decatur Chapter of Credit Unions is proud to support those who are working toward a better life, and appreciates the opportunity to provide a hand up.

Temporary employees are encouraged to apply for anything they might need. Lend A Hand has provided applicants with furniture, appliances, gas cards, groceries, winter coats, non-skid work shoes, and even a lawnmower. Most requests are fulfilled with used items donated by credit union employees or with money generated from the annual Taste of Credit Unions fundraiser.

The Decatur Lend A Hand program is just another example of the credit union motto…People Helping People.

  Comments Off      


Caption contest!

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the twitters…


  62 Comments      


“There’s a high chance that I possibly will”

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rep. Ken Dunkin told Mike Flannery this past weekend that he voted for AFSCME’s “no strike” bill last spring and would’ve voted for the bill again last fall if he hadn’t been in New York during the roll call. Asked if he would vote for it on the third try, he said “There’s a high chance that I possibly will.”

The high chance turned out to be no chance

Dunkin broke ranks with the resurrected arbitration bill Tuesday, and voted no. Dunkin says he’s been with unions most of the time in his 13-year career in Springfield, despite his recently soured relations.

“They have no loyalty to any black politician in the General Assembly,” he said. Dunkin says he wanted a last-minute change to the legislation to help black and Latino state employees.

Welch, who like Dunkin is black, says it was too late to make such a change as it had just been introduced on Tuesday, but would support the idea in the future.

I’m not sure Dunkin realizes that “loyalty” is a two-way street. The unions backed him when he voted with them. They left when he walked away from them. It’s not rocket science.

* More

State Rep. Christian Mitchell, D-Chicago, delivered a punishing blow to Dunkin, who spoke against the bill if a last-minute amendment wasn’t adopted. “I find it interesting and perhaps even troubling that the last speaker given his recent voting record spoke about complicity. But I suppose that’s why the president said: ‘Some folks don’t change.’”

Mitchell then seared Dunkin with other remarks Obama made to the embattled Democrat last week. “I am speaking to the bill sir, you might want to take his second bit of advice, which is to sit down.”

Like I’ve been saying for a while now, Dunkin’s biggest problem is with his fellow Democratic legislators. This isn’t just a Madigan thing. His members want the guy punished.

Much the same can be said of Sen. Sam McCann. You don’t see any Republican legislators standing with him at campaign press conferences.

* Related…

* An anonymous dossier at the heart of key Rauner/Madigan battle

  29 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your reaction to Gov. Bruce Rauner’s budget address?

  139 Comments      


This Just In: Exelon Announces More $$$$ For Shareholders, Higher 2015 Profits And Still Seeks Bailout

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Exelon announced that its profits for 2015 were $2,270,000,000 and that it is increasing dividends to shareholders 2.5% per year for the next three years.

So you’re thinking – “The company is healthy, shareholders are getting more $$$, the power auctions provided them $1.7 billion for their nuclear plants in Illinois so they must be done asking struggling Illinois ratepayers for a bailout, right?” Nope - it’s never enough for Exelon.

“Groundhog Day was yesterday, but Exelon appears to want to keep celebrating. The Chicago-based nuclear giant is back to threatening to close nuclear plants in Illinois without financial help from the state.” – “Exelon’s Crane beats the drum again for nuke subsidies” Crain’s, February 3, 2016

To review:

  • Exelon made more than TWO BILLION DOLLARS ($2,270,000,000) last year
  • Exelon is INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR SHAREHOLDERS
  • Exelon received a $1.7 BILLION WINDFALL through new capacity charges

Illinois still has no budget, the state’s finances and services are in shambles, the social safety net is being decimated but Exelon STILL wants the Legislature to pass a huge BAILOUT.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

Just say no to the Exelon Bailout.

www.noexelonbailout.com

BEST Coalition is a 501C4 nonprofit group of dozens of business, consumer and government groups, as well as large and small businesses. Visit www.noexelonbailout.com.

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Priorities, priorities

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Drew Zimmerman

A bill that aims to fund Monetary Award Program (MAP) grants for thousands of financially burdened students was sent to Gov. Bruce Rauner’s office Tuesday.

Senate Bill 2043 passed both chambers over two weeks ago and was delivered to the Republican governor by Democratic Rep. Kelly Burke of Evergreen Park and Sen. Donne Trotter of Chicago.

“We’ve held this bill for two weeks because we want the governor to understand this is a government of the people, by the people and for that people, and that we’ve given him a chance to listen to the many voices who have determined that this is a necessity for us to move forward in the society that we live in,” Trotter said. “We have told the governor by our actions that it is a responsibility, but more importantly, something that is necessary to receive and maintain for viability of our state.”

If signed by the governor, the Illinois Student Assistance Commission estimates that roughly 125,000 eligible students would receive MAP grant aid.

However, Rauner has said — and his administration reiterated Tuesday — that he intends to veto the bill since there is no source of funding for the $721 million proposal, which also includes funding for community college operations and adult education programs.

Yet, the same governor is demanding increased state funding for early education and K-12 without a revenue source.

  38 Comments      


Because… Rauner!

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Marty Durkan, who’s running as a Democrat for a water reclamation board seat, spent around $50,000 on a mailing for Ald. Michelle Harris, who’s the Cook County party’s endorsed candidate for Circuit Court clerk.

* From a reader…

A front and back mailer I got today. What Bruce Rauner has to do with the Cook County Circuit Clerk or the MWRD I have no idea, but it must poll well or something.

Also, in the 10 years I’ve lived in Cook County I have never voted in a Democratic Primary so they may want to check their universe sampling.

I was honestly confused what the [heck] I was getting until I read it word-for-word which is never good for a mail piece. And why is it paid for by Durkan (which is an unfortunate name to have for a Democratic candidate in Cook these days)? Since this obviously went to a lot of people (see above) couldn’t they have funneled it through the state party and saved a ton of cash?

Rauner doesn’t exactly poll well in Cook these days.

* The mailer…


  19 Comments      


Once again, with feeling

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It’s good to see him finally admitting this

“It’s hard to give a budget speech for a state that doesn’t have a budget,” Rauner said Tuesday while addressing the state’s pork producers. “But you know what? It’s not really about the budget. It’s about the future direction of Illinois.”

Yep. The budget is being used as “leverage” in the real fight, which is, as he says, about the direction of Illinois. Unfortunately, the direction the governor demands is opposed by members of both parties in the Illinois General Assembly. It’s like trying to pedal a tandem bicycle while your fellow driver hits the brakes. Nothing’s gonna happen until both people start moving those pedals together.

So, in the interim, universities are allowed to crumble and people who rely on critical social services are kicked to the curb.

I hate to keep saying this, but I’m going to until it happens: Find. Another. Way.

* Related…

* So what’s in the cards?: Illinois Playbook has learned that the governor will offer up a choice to lawmakers. Behind door No. 1: Rauner will ask for the sole authority to make billions of dollars in cuts to programs, with no tax increase. Rauner will propose making the cuts himself. Or … Behind door No. 2: He will achieve a balanced budget through 1) a series of reforms — watered down from his go nowhere Turnaround Agenda, 2) cuts in spending 3) new revenue. The governor is to make clear he is looking to negotiate a settlement to the state budget impasse once and for all. Takeaway: Door number one is dead on arrival. Can anyone see Democratic leaders going for that? Door number two sounds plausible, depending on how far he backs away from proposed law changes that harm unions. Otherwise, it’s really dressing up the same way he’s operated since last year.

* Durkin’s Expectations For The Budget Address: “At some point cooler heads are going to have to prevail. That means we have to be austere, we have to live within our means, and if we do have to make investments, we have to have a revenue source that we can rely upon.”

  51 Comments      


African-American “political engagement” studied

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From WalletHub…

Hi Rich,

With Black History Month and the South Carolina primaries taking place in February, the personal finance website WalletHub conducted an in-depth analysis of 2016’s States with the Highest Political Engagement Among Blacks.

To determine where black Americans are most engaged in the political process, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 48 states across six key metrics. They include black voter turnout and registration during the most recent midterm and presidential elections as well as the proportional representation of blacks in the state legislature and national party conventions.

Political Engagement of Blacks in Illinois (1=Most Politically Engaged; 24=Avg.)

    4th – Black Voter Turnout (2012 Presidential Election)
    17th – Black Voter Turnout (2014 Midterm Elections)
    7th – Black Voter Registration (2012 Presidential Election)
    31st – Black Voter Registration (2014 Midterm Elections)
    1st – Proportional Representation of Blacks in State Legislature

For the full report, please visit:
https://wallethub.com/edu/where-are-blacks-most-least-politically-engaged/19026/

Look at that horrible number for 2014 voter registration. Pat Quinn’s campaign depended on a heavy African-American turnout, which didn’t happen, and high voter registration, which also didn’t happen. It was a complete failure.

* That last number is pretty interesting to me. I’ve been told by African-American legislators that their counterparts in other states are often amazed at how many black people are in the Illinois General Assembly. It’s one reason why some African-American leaders here are skeptical of the remap reformers’ intentions. They have built something that no one else has matched, and they don’t want it taken away.

…Adding… Speaking of which

With 11 weeks remaining in the petition drive for redistricting reform, the Independent Maps coalition has exceeded the 507,500 petition signatures collected in the 2014 effort and is on target to reach the new coalition’s goal of 600,000 signatures.

“Support for the Independent Map Amendment has been phenomenal,” said Dennis FitzSimons, Chair of Independent Maps. “We’ve collected 510,000 signatures so far and will turn in many more signatures than the previous campaign, which fell short of the number needed to qualify for the ballot. We’re confident our petition signatures – well in excess of the required 290,216 signatures – will withstand challenges by opponents of reform.”

  25 Comments      


Rauner to propose hiking early childhood, K-12 spending

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Rauner’s team said Tuesday that the governor will use the budget speech to call on lawmakers to send him another stand-alone bill that spends even more on schools and early childhood education.

“No matter how this session unfolds, send that education bill to my desk — clean, no games — and I’ll sign it immediately,” Rauner plans to say.

That request signals a continuation of the political positioning that’s dominated the last year. But as Rauner and Democrats continue to bicker, social service groups and colleges and universities remain caught in the middle.

* Here’s a preview of his remarks on this topic…

We must make the education of our children our top priority. The one thing I won’t back down on – the one thing that’s non-negotiable for me – is increasing education funding.

That is why Leader Durkin and Leader Radogno will be introducing a standalone appropriations bill for early childhood education and our K-12 schools.

No matter how this session unfolds send that education bill to my desk – CLEAN – NO GAMES – and I’ll sign it immediately…

Our budget for early childhood education increases state support by $75 million, a nearly 25 percent increase…

The $393 million this budget proposes investing in early childhood education is the most in state history – and will allow us to make giant strides towards ensuring every child in Illinois enters Kindergarten with a chance to succeed.

Our budget also proposes fully funding the General State Aid foundation level for the first time in seven years.

This will mark the most state money we’ve ever invested in our school funding formula and eliminate the need for any proration – a practice that has forced teachers, administrators and school boards to make cuts that negatively impact our kids.

We must fully fund this foundation level as a first step toward reforming our school funding formula.

I understand that the formula we currently use to fund our schools does not adequately meet the needs of all our children. Efforts to reform the funding formula in the past didn’t work because they pitted communities against each other…

To achieve formula changes, we must increase state support for education so that no community sees state funding taken away during the transition. I pledge to work with you on this issue to find a bipartisan way forward. But much like our larger discussion about the budget and reforms in the days ahead, nothing should delay the General Assembly from funding early childhood education and K-12 schools for the coming fiscal year.

I restate my request — send me that appropriations bill right away – CLEAN – NO GAMES – to give our schoolchildren and parents the security of knowing that education is our shared priority.

Subscribers have more context.

* But right on cue

With Gov. Bruce Rauner set to deliver a new budget plan to lawmakers Wednesday, several suburban school leaders appeared in Springfield to urge state officials not to cut their funding.

Their testimony before a House committee Tuesday echoes a debate over how Illinois pays for schools that has raged for decades, with lawmakers trying to find a way to send more money to downstate and Chicago schools that often have less property wealth and spend less per student than in the suburbs.

Democratic Illinois Senate President John Cullerton has sought to make school funding changes a priority in the state’s ongoing budget battle.

Schaumburg Elementary District 54 Superintendent Andrew DuRoss argued the state should spend more on education, enough to help schools that have less money without taking state resources away from suburban schools that have the means to spend more.

  56 Comments      


Catholic Charities warns of disaster

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Monsignor Michael Boland, the President of Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Chicago, has been keeping a pretty low profile during the long impasse. But he’s starting to speak out and talked to Mark Brown

Boland admits he has been hesitant before now to speak out, in part not wanting to scare the people who rely on Catholic Charities for help, such as the 15,000 seniors who participate in a program that provides them various services in their homes to help them avoid going into a nursing home.

One in three Chicago residents receive some service from Catholic Charities over the course of a year, Boland said. Surprising to me, some 75 percent of its $200 million annual budget comes from government funding.

If Catholic Charities were to close 20 percent of its programs, that would hurt 200,000 people, Boland said.

“Where would they go? For me, I’m trying to hold the line … because I don’t think these people should be pawns of government.”

Boland noted that some are starting to say there will be no resolution to this crisis until after the general election in November.

“I don’t know what will be left after the general election as far as services,” he warned.

There’s no way that Catholic Charities, or any other group, can raise private funds to make up for the continuing non-payment of their state service contracts.

What’s happening here is the absolute shredding of the state’s safety net. And for what? To savage the already waning power of unions.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, the governor needs to find another way to expand the economy before this state implodes. And the Democrats absolutely need to help him find that alternate path

“The two sides are so entrenched, how are they going to walk it back?” said Chris Mooney, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois. “They are too far gone, somehow they’ve got to find a way both can declare victory and go home.”

Yep.

  52 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE *** Gov. Rauner’s budget address

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow it all right here with ScribbleLive…


  47 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

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