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What is a mainstream Republican these days?

Wednesday, Feb 10, 2021

* I do not think that we’ll be covering Adam Kinzinger the same way going forward because, as I told you yesterday, he really did seem to take himself out of the 2022 statewide race. From his press conference yesterday…

I will tell you January 6 changed a lot. My focus went from wanting to fight hard and figure out the best platform in place to do it, to literally see in front of me, to… to use the US military term, what’s the nearest target objective.

And I think it’s saving the saving the country and saving the dialogue of our politics. And importantly, saving what I think is a great party that’s very much lost its way. So I don’t have any plans for anything higher in Illinois. And, as always, I’ll put the caveat that I’m not going to rule anything out, because January 5th and January 7th were two very different days in this world. You never know what can happen. But it’s not my intention to run for anything statewide.

And I’ll tell you, I think there’s probably less of that chatter. But at the beginning, I heard people speculate that I was taking the positions I was taking to set myself up to run statewide. And I’ll tell you, the people that speculate that don’t know me. And I would even argue that they probably don’t know something about politics if you think I can get through a [statewide] primary pretty easily. So none of my decision was based on anything that have to do with my political future was just based 100% on conscience.

* More…

Like I said, I’m not doing this to run statewide, I won’t rule it out just because if whatever reason something happens and I do, then, you know, I want to have that integrity. But a lot changed on the 6th.

And then he went on to talk about his new PAC.

* He was also asked about Kendall County Republican Party Chairman James Marter, who said he would challenge Kinzinger in the ‘22 primary…

I guess we don’t even know what the new district looks like. He didn’t live in the district last time, so I guess that doesn’t necessarily preclude him. He’s got a great history of losing races, and I certainly would welcome him to the race. Because if last time was any indication will be a pretty easy [district] primary for me.

* On the current climate within the party…

I feel very, very convinced that in the future, when we look back in the perfect eyes of history, this is going to be seen as that moment where the future of the country is at stake based on what choice we make. And so I’m not going to compel people by fear. There’s times to use fear naturally, right? If there’s something to truly be afraid of. I’m afraid of COVID, I’m afraid of Chinese aggression, for instance, I’m afraid of division in this country, and we can talk about that fear.

But I’m not afraid that the Democrats, if they take power, are going to turn this into a communist country and kill my family. I don’t like their policies and I’ll fight them. But that’s the difference. And so I’m hoping that this works. But there’s no other alternative.

* CBS News Poll taken February 5-8, 2021

Actual questions

When you think about Democrats, do you tend to think of them as

    Asked of those who identify as Republicans:

    Political opposition - that is, if they win, you just won’t get the policies you want - 43%
    Enemies - that is, if they win, your life or your entire way of life may be threatened - 57%

When you think about Republicans, do you tend to think of them as

    Asked of those who identify as Democrats

    Political opposition - that is, if they win, you just won’t get the policies you want - 59%
    Enemies - that is, if they win, your life or your entire way of life may be threatened - 41%

2,508 US adults, MoE ±2.3 percent.

To be clear, 41 percent of Democrats classifying Republicans as enemies is almost as alarming. But at least they’re not in the majority. And 57-43 is definitely a clear majority.

* Related…

* Opinion: My fellow Republicans, convicting Trump is necessary to save America

* Republican US Rep. Kinzinger, an outspoken Trump opponent, says he doesn’t intend to seek statewide office in 2022

* Eyeing a run for statewide office? Kinzinger says no.

* Kinzinger calls for Trump’s conviction, throws cold water on statewide run

* Winnebago County Republicans condemn Trump impeachment, not Kinzinger

* Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger: Impeaching Trump ‘was, frankly, an easy decision’

* Republican congressman says Trump supporters will carry out more violence if he is acquitted by Senate

- Posted by Rich Miller        

86 Comments
  1. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 9:51 am:

    The GOP primary for governor will be both a hoot and another tragic reminder of how the GOP of my youth/early adulthood is extinct.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 9:52 am:

    ===He’s got a great history of losing races, and I certainly would welcome him to the race.===

    I love the way he’s going about this business.

    Hysterical.


  3. - JoanP - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 9:54 am:

    I truly appreciate his honesty in not ruling out a run, even if it’s not his current intention. Because “January 5th and January 7th were two very different days in this world” is a true thing.

    However:

    =they probably don’t know something about politics if you think I can get through a primary pretty easily=

    =if last time was any indication will be a pretty easy primary for me.=

    Which is it?


  4. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 9:59 am:

    I always thought of Bruce Rauner as a left wing Republican. A mainstream Republican is more like Jim Oberweis and a right wing Republican is closer to what Darrin LaHood is pretending to be.


  5. - illinifan - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:02 am:

    Persons who identify as Republican keeps declining. According to this data about 50% of the public identifies as democrats and 39% as republican. https://news.gallup.com/poll/315734/party-preferences-swung-sharply-toward-democrats.aspx


  6. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:04 am:

    Mainstream Republicans are:

    Angry, White, older… pro life, yet pro death penalty, “pro police” but only if they ignore white entitled suspects *and* focus on persons of color as “the real threat”… cite “God”, but not the “God” of others… strict constitutionalists, yet want judicial activism to save white privilege…

    That’s where you start.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:05 am:

    JoanP, that’s statewide vs. district.


  8. - May Soon Be Required - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:06 am:

    Both parties could benefit from a little more centrist types


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:08 am:

    === Both parties===

    … and yet it’s the Trump extremists driving that party, and the alleged Dem extremist complain they have “no say” in their party.

    Thus, the difference, and the phony crutch Trumpkins try to use that isn’t at all similar.


  10. - City Guy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:11 am:

    Even though I have always considered myself a Democrat, I have respected many Republican politicians through the years. People like Jim Edgar. But in recent years, the Republicans haven’t just moved to the right, they have moved into looney land. QAnon, InfoWars, Trump, etc. The fact that they literally fought against a peaceful transition of power unfortunately makes me consider them the enemy.


  11. - Not the Dude - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:27 am:

    Main stream republican to me- Mitt Romney.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:29 am:

    === Main stream republican to me- Mitt Romney===

    If on ideology, even that is suspect…

    You can’t say Romney and have a party say at over an 80+% clip they *still* support Trump.

    Can’t be Romney, no.


  13. - DarkHorse - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:34 am:

    1. I take Kinzinger at his word. That said, it’s exactly what someone would say if a) you wanted to keep your options open, but wanted to avoid the attacks that come with being a presumed candidate; and b) if you look at California, Newsome’s approval dropped rapidly based on disapproval of his handling of COVID. If Pritzker isn’t seen to be handling that #1 problem well, he could be vulnerable and maybe Adam reconsiders.

    2. In this day and age, is Erika Harold a mainstream Republican? She’s clearly very conservative, but no evidence she’s a supporter of Trump. I think she’s said she voted for someone else in the 2016 Presidential election.


  14. - Trulia - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:35 am:

    When Democrats and the news media portray community destruction, murder and occupation as “mostly peaceful protests”, they’ve lost all sense of objectivity.

    When manufactured racial incidents (Jussie Smollet, Sukhdeep Gill) are ignored, but “white privilege” is attached to anyone that ask questions, objectivity and intellectual probity have been buried.


  15. - Crash - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:37 am:

    The Congressman moved the issue to the front and that’s good. There are many like me who don’t like how the state operated under Speaker Madigan and also under Gov. Pritzker. However, we voted Democratic because the IL GOP just didn’t offer a serious alternative.


  16. - Publius - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:38 am:

    Mr Rumsfeld figured it out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUDISiiF_ik


  17. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:40 am:

    === but no evidence she’s a supporter of Trump.===

    Supporters of Trump *are* the mainstream.

    Polling says so.


  18. - Boom shaka - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:40 am:

    Wow OW. Having never me you surely have done an amazing job of defining myself and millions of Americans whom you’ve never met. Bravo


  19. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:41 am:

    Trulia, I’m guess you’re closer to LaHood than Rauner on my spectrum. Except he’s only pretending to be a racist nutjob and you seem to be trying to own it.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:43 am:

    - Trulia -

    What would you call January 6th… a “misunderstanding”?

    White privilege in quotation marks is also confusing.

    You saying white privilege doesn’t exist?

    It is interesting you are choosing the racial issues to point out Democrats, while then mocking white privilege.

    Like I said… Angry, white… dunno, not asking if you’re old.


  21. - John Lopez - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:44 am:

    IL GA Democrats when they draw the new IL-16, draw McHenry County into it, and an Adam Kinzinger vs. Catalina Lauf Republican primary emerges. Marter and the other 3 declared candidates don’t stand a chance, Lauf will make Kinzinger work.


  22. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:46 am:

    === Having never me you surely have done an amazing job of defining myself and millions of Americans===

    LOL

    If you fit the profile… ask yourself…

    Why aren’t there persons of color, diversity of religious freedom, the need to suppress voting rights…

    Ask yourself… are you afraid of people “not like you”?

    You’re welcome, polling has you pigeoned holed, not me.


  23. - Annon3 - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:47 am:

    What is a mainstream Republican ? Jeanne Ives still fits the bill in many parts of Illinois.


  24. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:49 am:

    Mainstream Republican thought is that Democrats, given their party’s stance on abortion legalization, are evil, baby-killers.

    Extreme Republican thought is that Democrats are evil, baby-killers who also belong to a Satanic cult that is involved in torturing and assaulting kids.

    I am surprised the Dem are enemies number in the GOP poll was not higher. If a person truly believes abortion is murder why would they not see Dems as enemies?


  25. - Responsa - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:52 am:

    The PAC is where it turned the wrong corner for me with Adam. Before that I was like he’s basically a good guy from my neck of the woods who presents himself well; let’s wait and see how this R family squabble all plays out after a month, a year. But the PAC shows he’s up to something else and it feels like he is not being honest about what that is or who his contributors are.


  26. - Moe Berg - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:55 am:

    Across the country, and in Illinois, Republicans have attempted to restrict voting rights, to make it harder for people to exercise the franchise.

    That is - small “d” - anti-democratic.

    If it was happening in another country, the United State government - except for the period 2017 to early 2021 - would condemn those perpetrating it as “enemies of democracy.”

    So, at least from the Democratic Party side - if Democrats, particularly those from the most historically disenfranchised groups - view Republicans as enemies, in what way should they view a party that has been so dedicated to keeping Democrats from voting and participating in their democracy?

    Just having an “honest difference of opinion” like one might have about the optimal levels of marginal tax rates?

    Anyway, it would have been interesting to probe the people on both sides who said “enemies” in what specific ways the think their “life or way of life” may be threatened.


  27. - vern - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:55 am:

    I don’t want to stick my head too far into the lion’s mouth here, but I think it’s worth reflecting on the wording of the “enemies” definition. “Your life or your way of life may be threatened” is a valid thought for people to have in response to potential government policies.

    Most immediately, there have been strong arguments made that a more aggressive federal response to COVID would have prevented deaths, possibly hundreds of thousands of deaths. Is it alarming that voters might consider lax COVID policies a threat to their lives, or is it a rational response to the last year of evidence?

    More broadly, there are untold ways that government policy can threaten lives. If one candidate supports a strong EPA and ASTDR, and one doesn’t, isn’t that a potentially life-or-death issue for a voter in Willowbrook or Waukegan? If one candidate favors policies that cause insulin to cost $100/mo, and another favors $1500/mo, isn’t that a life-or-death issue for a diabetic? Many gun owners consider their right to carry protective weapons a matter of life and death, and many others consider the need for new gun control the same. Should they just… not?

    “Way of life” is a little more nebulous, but I don’t think it’s all that ridiculous for voters to see threats in potential policies. If two candidates are running for President, and one would order ICE to deport my romantic partner and one wouldn’t, isn’t that a threat to my way of life? If a candidate’s tax or trade policies cost me my job, is my way of life intact? Debates about housing, transportation and energy policy are almost entirely fought on the grounds of ordinary voters’ “way of life.” It would be absurd to suggest that gentrification, whether you’re generally opposed or generally in favor, has no effect of the lives of ordinary people.

    This is not to say that people are justified in reacting violently to losing elections, or that the current temperature of political discourse is optimal. The more focus on policy and the less on personalities and ancillary cultural fights, the better.

    But more focus on policy includes more focus on results. One of the most important results we can measure is the amount of people who do not get to live out their full natural lives. I’ve often wondered what would be different about our politics if we replaced stock trackers on cable news chyrons with a daily count of untimely deaths. Is there really an argument to be made that voters pay *too much* attention to how government policies can hurt them?


  28. - Chicagonk - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 10:57 am:

    ILGOP should figure out how Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and Larry Hogan keep winning elections (hint they focus on state issues). I’d vote for a Republican governor if they worked with Democrats and acted as a moderating force in Springfield.


  29. - Just Another Anon - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:00 am:

    I think the timing of the poll impacts the outcome. Frankly, I suspect that the numbers would be reversed Pre-2020 Election. I’d be interested to see anything done pre-november.


  30. - Julian Perez - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:01 am:

    “You saying white privilege doesn’t exist?”

    More POC voted for the GOP in 2020 than in the last 60 years. More Mexican-Americans, African-Americans and Asian-Americans.

    In IL, glance at the Washington Post results by precinct. There was a pronounced shift to the GOP in African-American and Mexican-American precincts, 2016 vs 2020.

    Whether we like it or not, DJT has made the GOP a far more minority-heavy party than at anytime since Eisenhower.


  31. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:02 am:

    My take on a mainstream republican is it varies geographically. One in upstate Illinois is going to be way different then one from Downstate. Also varies state to state and region to region. In other words, you just can’t buttonhole any one group into “mainstream”


  32. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:04 am:

    - Julian Perez -

    Cite please.

    Let’s be clear, as an example, a “9%” African American total percentage isn’t all that great to brag about.

    While you’re at it, give the percentages too…

    Persons of color, Republicans, that serve in the House, Senate… in the Illinois House, Illinois Senate…

    Thanks.


  33. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:04 am:

    “Both parties could benefit from a little more centrist types”

    Serious and genuine question: What is the Democratic equivalent to Monday’s Republican town hall at Christ’s Church in Effingham?

    https://capitolfax.com/2021/02/09/throwing-red-meat-to-the-base-ought-to-have-some-limits/

    – MrJM


  34. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:05 am:

    === far more minority-heavy party than at anytime since Eisenhower.===

    This is like The Onion type thinking(?)


  35. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:08 am:

    ==DJT has made the GOP a far more minority-heavy party than at anytime since Eisenhower.==

    If that is the case, why does the Republican Party put so much effort into making it very difficult for People of Color to vote?


  36. - Boom shaka - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:11 am:

    OW. I never really cared for the practice of profiling. As far as asking myself am I afraid of people not like me that’s just furthering my point that you have chosen to define me. I know the answer to your silly question, but in your mind you know the answer better than I. Polling is not truth big guy. Don’t get it twisted. Now try to take a deep breath. You’re welcome


  37. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:14 am:

    === As far as asking myself am I afraid of people not like me that’s just furthering my point that you have chosen to define me.===

    If you can’t ask yourself hard questions, friend, you likely don’t like the answers you already know.

    === I know the answer to your silly question, but in your mind you know the answer better than I===

    Your victimhood is noted, lol


  38. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:16 am:

    ===… silly … big guy.===

    How Trumpian of you.

    Mirrors sometimes show what we don’t want said aloud.


  39. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:19 am:

    Mainstream Republicans these days are Trump supporters, which is evident in the behavior and votes of national Republican legislators. The deal will likely be sealed soon, with the probable acquittal.

    This is bad for the party, as the former president damaged it even before the insurrection, with the loss of Congress and the presidency. Are Republicans sure they want to hitch their wagons to this flaming hot pile of political trash?


  40. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:31 am:

    Did Kinzinger raise a peep about birtherism for six years during the tenure of Barack Obama? Nope. Not a peep. That’s a mainstream Republican. Keep the crazies in until they turn on you.


  41. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:31 am:

    =When Democrats and the news media portray community destruction, murder and occupation as “mostly peaceful protests”, they’ve lost all sense of objectivity.=

    IIRC, with the exception of one, literally all of the killings associated with the protests were committed by right-wingers. I mean, a proud boy killed a cop in California fer chrissakes

    The protests themselves were largely peaceful. At night, a lot of opportunists and bad actors put themselves in position to instigate riots and looting.

    Most, if not all, Democratic politicians condemned the violence. Google is your friend, or maybe you just prefer your bubble?

    Nevertheless, the United States Capitol Building is not The Gap. But I know I won’t persuade you - you probably think it was all a plot ti discredit your Dear Leader.

    To the question - pretty obvious what a mainstream Republican is. About 60% of self-identified R’s don’t accept the election results. Nearly as many say Democrats are an enemy and not a political opponent. Two-thirds of the House Republican Congress voted to undermine the will of the people and quite literally steal the election from the rightful winner.

    That’s your mainstream Republican in 2021


  42. - VerySmallRocks - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:38 am:

    Rep Kinzinger appears to be less an Abraham Lincoln looking to succeed a Whig Party and more a GOP version of Charles DeGaulle, trying to keep non-authoritarian conservatism alive in the Republican Party. Like DeGaulle, the conservative political base was taken over by fascist sympathizers and have marginalized, if not purged, those who are not. DeGaulle had to leave his country and came back on the back of rhe anti-fascist Allies. I am diubtful whether Mr Kinzinger can do something similar.


  43. - Independent Voter - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:39 am:

    The survey would be more interesting if independent voters were asked if both D’s and R’s are political opposition or enemies.


  44. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:40 am:

    There is no Republican Party. There is just a disgraced former president and a mob. Adam Kinzinger represents values of a former political party that mostly did not live up to those values.


  45. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:40 am:

    If your party is fine with insurrection and the conspirators whom participated in that insurrection as part of your rank and file…

    … that’s different than any protest, any where, about any thing.

    The leadership of the United States was in peril, incited by the President.

    The party of that *same* former President… they support that former president… overwhelmingly.

    Period.

    Mainstream Republicans see insurrection in ways that should trouble a democracy.

    Kinzinger is trying to eradicate.


  46. - Boom shaka - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:45 am:

    Victimhood? Not on your life. Even though you proclaim it to be so. I could not be more blessed than I am in this life. I have more to be thankful for than I probably deserve. Try it out sometime. You know, find a little joy somewhere. “God” (all of em) bless.


  47. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 11:48 am:

    ===You know, find a little joy somewhere.===

    I’m blessed and joyful, thanks.

    Be well


  48. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 12:10 pm:

    === Jeanne Ives still fits the bill in many parts of Illinois.===

    This is probably the brightest insight in such a pithy sentence.

    Looking at how close Ives came to defeating Rauner.

    Which constituency in 2018 in the Raunerite party grew in 2020?

    Ives? Rauner?

    Why would Ives be mainstream “now”, why “now”, what is different… “now”

    Two more years, embracing more conspiracy theories, welcoming Q thinking and practitioners… a racial divide and division that put to this 2020 election… the overt racism, and its embracing.

    “Jeanne Ives still fits the bill in many parts of Illinois.”

    Ives, in a primary, may be that mainstream primary modeling


  49. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 12:34 pm:

    === Lauf will make Kinzinger work.===

    Lauf, a conspiracy theorists retweeter, she’s a Dem dream if that district is seemingly competitive.

    lol


  50. - Julian Perez - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 12:53 pm:

    “Cite please.”

    Try to keep up. Trends Matter.

    From the Matt Yglesias Twitter feed….

    ———————-
    Overwhelming support for Biden in the non-white neighborhoods of Chicago (on the right) but the *change* is that Biden gained ground in white areas and lost in non-white ones.

    This is why I’m frustrated with attributing everything to “whiteness” — trends matter.


  51. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 12:54 pm:

    That ain’t no cite, LOL


  52. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:06 pm:

    === Twitter feed…===

    I mean… wow.


  53. - Julian Perez - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:09 pm:

    Google, trump increase minority support

    Also, glance at the counties on the Texas/Mexico border. DJT increased his share by as much as 25% points over 2016 results.


  54. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:11 pm:

    === increase minority support===

    Numbers. Give me numbers.

    === 25% points ===

    1) Texas

    2) Show your work.

    Show it


  55. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:28 pm:

    Let’s work backwards…

    ===As for Latino voters, Trump won 32% of the vote, which trails both elections won by Ronald Reagan (37% and 34%) and George W. Bush (35% and 34%).===

    And this;

    === According to exit polls from the 2020 election, President Donald Trump received 12% of the Black vote. When looking back on data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion and Research, there have been numerous candidates who performed better than Trump among Black voters over the last century. Richard Nixon received 15% of the vote in 1968, Gerald Ford got 17% in 1976 and Ronald Reagan won 14% in 1980.===

    Finally;

    === If you put all minority voters together, however, President Donald Trump’s performance was notable, however. He won an estimated 26% of the overall minority vote, which ranks as the second best showing in the past 100 years by a Republican candidate, trailing only the 2004 election in which George W. Bush received 28% of the vote.===

    Cite?

    Roper Center for Public Opinion and Research

    The piece?

    “FACT CHECK: Blunt’s wrong: Trump did not get the highest minority vote percentage in 100 years”

    The Missourian

    Link.

    http://alturl.com/dccau

    While second to G.W. Bush, dunno if these are “great” numbers.


  56. - Thomas Paine - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:35 pm:

    Kinzinger reminds me of Stepen Douglas, searching for a political solution while the other half of the Democratic Party thirsted for armed confrontation.

    Douglas came in Second in the 1860 election, while John Breckinridge, a wealthy Kentuckian, led the newly-formed Southern Democratic Party to a third place finish.


  57. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:51 pm:

    “DJT increased his share by as much as 25% points over 2016 results.”

    Skyrocketing from 4% to 5% is an increase of 25%.

    – MrJM


  58. - Julian Perez - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:54 pm:

    “Skyrocketing from 4% to 5% is an increase of 25%.”

    I said “% points” not “%”

    Glance at Starr County in Texas. 90% Mexican-American.

    2016, DJT secured 19%

    2020, DJT secured 47%


  59. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 1:58 pm:

    === Starr County in Texas===

    You cite a whole county…

    We have a whole country.

    ===Skyrocketing from 4% to 5% is an increase of 25%.===

    Bringing facts to a numbers game, @misterjayem-style


  60. - Blake - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:03 pm:

    Margins matter. Just following from the east along the Rio Grande Valley, Trump got 43% in Cameron County (32% in 2016), 41% in Hidalgo County (28% in 2016), 47% in Starr County (19% in 2016), 53% in Zapata County (33% in 2016).


  61. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:05 pm:

    === Margins matter===

    … Biden carried minority voters by a wide margin.

    Wide.

    If you think Margins matter and all.


  62. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:07 pm:

    - Julian Perez -, - Blake -

    If you’re just gonna argue “counties on the Texas border”, I’ll leave you to your small potatoes, myopic view on the subject.


  63. - Blake - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:11 pm:

    To win statewide, being -13 in Cameron is very different than being -32.


  64. - Blake - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:14 pm:

    “Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters should prompt some progressive rethinking”

    https://www.vox.com/2020/11/5/21548677/trump-hispanic-vote-latinx


  65. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:16 pm:

    === Cameron===

    (Sigh)

    As others battle for the “Border counties of Texas”, looking at 26% Trump won, you can’t call your party diverse when nearly three of four minority voters reject your standard bearer, and racists, insurrectionists, and conspiracy theorists are looking at non-white voters not as “one of us”

    Kinzinger is fighting against the mindset of both the “silent majority” whiteness and the Proud Boys types willing to lead insurrections because of conspiracies.

    But, let’s talk about Texas border counties…


  66. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:17 pm:

    - Blake -

    ===As for Latino voters, Trump won 32% of the vote, which trails both elections won by Ronald Reagan (37% and 34%) and George W. Bush (35% and 34%).===


  67. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:17 pm:

    ===43% in Cameron County (32% in 2016), 41% in Hidalgo County (28% in 2016), 47% in Starr County (19% in 2016), 53% in Zapata County (33% in 2016). ===

    Are any of those counties in Illinois? lol


  68. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 2:56 pm:

    “What is a mainstream Republican these days?” I used to be a mainstream Republican - fiscally conservative, socially moderate. This party now represents something else. As far as I can see, they have no interest in governing, they only care about preventing the Democrats from governing. I no longer care who a mainstream Republican is because I won’t be voting for any of them for the foreseeable future.


  69. - Shy Lurker - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:01 pm:

    The poll Rich cites above shows how polarized we have become as a nation - and how contentious we have become. Even here, in this amazing blog the tone is so different from a couple of years ago. Some days, painful to read. As tho some here even view their fellow commenters as “enemy”.


  70. - Julian Perez - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:06 pm:

    Here’s a link to the NYTimes analysis of Chicago precinct data.

    https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1356645725115940864

    Matt Yglesias’s thoughts on the data?

    “You see this same pattern in basically every city, and a big question/problem/opportunity for Biden in 2024 will be can he get back up to 2012/2016 kind of numbers especially with Hispanics.”


  71. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:08 pm:

    - Julian Perez -

    Link me to data, not tweets.

    What was the margin Biden won in Chicago?


  72. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:11 pm:

    - Julian Perez -

    ===As for Latino voters, Trump won 32% of the vote…===

    What is the breakdown *you* seemingly can’t find?


  73. - Responsa - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:12 pm:

    ==As far as I can see, they have no interest in governing, they only care about preventing the Democrats from governing.==

    Interesting comment. Can you point to anything specific since his election that Illinois R’s of any stripe have done to prevent JB from governing? Yet he (his administration) struggles in many areas that are obvious to all. Same with Lightfoot in Chicago.


  74. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:15 pm:

    - Julian Perez -

    WBEZ…

    http://alturl.com/4zhab

    === Sylvia Puente heads the Chicago-based Latino Policy Forum. She said she’s surprised at the controversy about the number of Latinos who voted for President Trump. Each presidential election cycle, about 30% of Latinos vote Republican.

    Puente said this shows the lack of understanding that pundits have about the Latino vote. She sat down with WBEZ to explain.

    On what comes to mind when Puente hears “Latino vote”: I’m surprised the people are surprised at how diverse the Latino vote is because we, of course, know that the Latino vote is not monolithic. Consistently, between 25% and 30% of the Latino electorate has voted Republican. The high-water mark being in the [George W.] Bush era 40% of Latinos voted for him since he was a governor of Texas and had a pretty solid relationship with many Latinos and predominantly Mexican Americans from that area.===


  75. - Pundent - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:19 pm:

    =Can you point to anything specific since his election that Illinois R’s of any stripe have done to prevent JB from governing?=

    Does the name Darren Bailey ring a bell? How about any of our county sheriffs who have refused to enforce executive orders related to the pandemic? Or the numerous counties and municipalities who refuse to support closures to prevent the spread. I think I’ll stop there.


  76. - papak - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:29 pm:

    Peter Roskam always seemed like a mainstream Republican, pretty much what a generic R is supposed to be


  77. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 3:40 pm:

    “He’s got a great history of losing races.”
    I think the kids call that “throwing shade”.


  78. - Crafty Veteran - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 4:37 pm:

    The median voter in Illinois is a Democrat. Fortunately , for Republicans, many of the fastest growing states don’t vote like Illinois. The GOP , in Illinois, isn’t much to talk about but at least they do very well nationally. 2022 is probably going to be a good year for the GOP. Most voters would prefer lower gas taxes than Illinois , along with less control of the economy by unions. Being a right to work state sure has advantages.


  79. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 4:40 pm:

    The percentage of independents vs. D or R is trending fairly high according to Gallup, a 15% margin over self-identified Ds and 21% margin over self-identified Rs. There’s a big market of the unaffiliated and/or disenchanted to sell to, if someone can figure it out. Looks like Kinzinger is aiming for that territory, if a “mainstream R” is what many say it is.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx


  80. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 5:18 pm:

    === along with less control of the economy by unions. Being a right to work state sure has advantages.===

    Is that you, Bruce Rauner, lol


  81. - Pundent - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 5:28 pm:

    On January 6th a large, almost entirely white, group of individuals stormed the capital after being encouraged to do so by the President. And now a large, almost entirely white, group of Republican Senators are prepared to acquit the President. That is the mainstream Republican Party.


  82. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 5:36 pm:

    - Crafty Veteran -

    Explain Georgia and Arizona.


  83. - Aaa1 - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 5:52 pm:

    Question isn’t clear. Democrats/Republican’s in general is the wording. People have a special dislike for politicians as opposed to voters (neighbors). Doesn’t seems this distinction was made so not sure how much faith I have in these numbers.


  84. - Daniel Steely - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 5:57 pm:

    OW seems to think that forced unionization states can compete with right to work states. If that’s the mainstream thinking of the GOP in Illinois , best of luck on all future endeavors.


  85. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 10, 21 @ 6:00 pm:

    === seems to think that forced unionization states can compete with right to work states. If that’s the mainstream thinking of the GOP===

    … and yet, Pre-Rauner… the number of pro-labor GOP members, members who supported trade organized labor was… a thing.

    Hatred towards labor?

    Couldn’t join a union… or are you not for collective bargaining?

    Whew.


  86. - Blue Dog - Thursday, Feb 11, 21 @ 2:05 am:

    I can’t believe anyone would claim to be a ‘member’ of any party……I can’t believe I used to drink the Kool-Ade.


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