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*** UPDATED x2 *** Depressing charts

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE 1 *** I agree that the New York Times made an error here. From a commenter

I am thinking these numbers are not correct. There were 7,505,002 registered voters in the primary according to the IL Board of Elections. There were probably a few more in the general but not too many. Quickly just grabbing the Treasurer race numbers there were 3,486,159 votes so far. That’s 45.45% . So unless there was a big difference in registered voters from the primary(I doubt it) their numbers appear wrong.

And

It actually goes up to 47.57% using the governor race results of 3,570,488 votes so far. That would get us top ten. But if Illinois numbers are wrong so could the other states.

Yep.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Ah, OK. From another commenter…

The NYT is reporting percentage of eligible adults, not registered voters. So the turnout is both 47.57% (of registered voters) and 39% (of eligible adults).

[ *** End Of Updates *** ]

* Man, turnout just sucked here. I mean, we were above the national average, but still

If that’s accurate, it’s horrible for Illinois. 2010 turnout was 51 percent. 2006 was the worst turnout year since I don’t know when, but it was still 49 percent.

Also, why does Wisconsin get such a much higher turnout than Illinois?

* Here are the below average states

So, we have one of the highest turnout states directly to our north, and the worst turnout state directly to our east.

* Nationally, 2014 was the worst American turnout year since 1942, when millions were overseas fighting wars

* Congressional numbers

And there you have it.

* Moving right along

* Explanation

This evidence suggests that polling bias has been largely unpredictable from election to election. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, the polling was biased against Democrats in 1998, 2006 and 2012. However, just as certainly, it was biased against Republicans in 1994, 2002 and now 2014. It can be dangerous to apply the “lessons” from one election cycle to the next one.

Turnout was a big reason for polling failure this year. The models were just wrong and you can only poll people who answer their phones.

  38 Comments      


Citizen Action: Override Veto of Ridesharing Protection Bill

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

For over three decades, Citizen Action/Illinois has fought hard to protect consumers at both at the state and national levels.

Back in June, the Illinois General Assembly passed HB 4075 & 5331, bipartisan legislation that would provide basic consumer protections to passengers who use ridesharing companies, like making sure drivers have comprehensive police background checks, drug tests and carry sufficient insurance in case of an accident.

We support this legislation and believe it provides critical transportation protections for thousands of riders and drivers throughout Illinois. Unfortunately, Governor Quinn vetoed the bills.

Ride-sharing companies claim that following these basic consumer protection requirements will destroy their business model in Illinois.

Yet in California, Uber and Lyft have agreed to new insurance provisions that are higher than what is proposed in Illinois.

In New York City, Uber and Lyft are licensed and carry full commercial insurance for 100% of their vehicles.

Uber and Lyft adapted their ridesharing models to protect consumers in other states and cities and are doing great business. They should do the same for consumers in Illinois.

Override Governor Quinn’s veto of HB 4075 & 5331 and provide common sense statewide protections for all Illinoisans.

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*** UPDATED x2 *** Rauner meets with Madigan, Cullerton

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Subscribers already knew about this…


No word yet on what they spoke about.

Guesses?

*** UPDATE 1 *** Tribune

“I think we had a very productive meeting this morning,” Madigan said after a two-hour get-together at the private Chicago Club downtown. “I pledged to the governor that we’re going to work with him professionally.

“I think there’s a general agreement among the three of us that in light of the expiration of the tax increase in January, the biggest problem facing the state right now is the budget, and the budget deficit,” Madigan said. “And Gov. Rauner understands that and he’s working with his people to try and get a better understanding of precisely where the finances are on this current budget.”

Madigan said the Democratic leaders stressed the most pressing challenge is the $4 billion-a-year budget hole that will be created on Jan. 1 when portions of a temporary income tax increase are set to expire. Rauner, who takes over for defeated Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn on Jan. 12, campaigned to fully phase out the tax increase over four years.

Cullerton said Rauner offered no specific budget plans, saying the meeting was “more of a get-to-know-you” following a bruising campaign season. He added, “he was very nice.”

Go read the whole thing. There’s lots more.

*** UPDATE 2 *** I looks like the Tribune was tipped off about the meeting’s location, while the Sun-Times was shut out, but the CS-T does have some useful react

“He repeated his request for no major action and on the issue of the minimum wage. The Senate President is going to be meeting with other members of the Senate Caucus to decide what kind of strategy for what we do and when. From our standpoint, we’ve got to talk to the caucus and see what they want to do,” he said. “This was a pretty cordial meeting, it went on for two hours. Our hope is that there will be a lot of room to work together. The fact that the meeting went on for two hours and we all came out OK, is probably a good step forward.”

Madigan spokesman Steve Brown said the Speaker was with Rauner from 9 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. –2 1/2 hours.

“The Speaker described it as a productive meeting and one where there was general consensus that the state budget will be one of the biggest challenges, given that the tax rate will be going down at the first of the year,” Brown said. “It was described as a productive, professional meeting.”

  72 Comments      


Chicago Democrats supressed more turnout than the GOP could’ve ever done

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* David Ormsby dug up a memo from House Speaker Michael Madigan to Democrats dated October 31st. The memo included details of the “Sporadic Voter Program,” which was designed to increase turnout

Turning out Democratic voters who have a history of voting in presidential elections, but who did not vote in the 2010 election cycle, could prove to be a major key to victory for Democrats in 2014, particularly in close races.

Polling:
We began the sporadic voter program with polling to determine what issues would motivate sporadic voters to get to the polls during an off-year election cycle and which sporadic voters we could most easily motivate to come to the polls.

Mail:
Given the makeup of the sporadic universe, it was determined that the best way to specifically target these voters was to send mail directly to each voter. Our mail program focused on 4 distinct groups of voters:

    * Chicago minority universe: 5 pieces to 177,228 households, targeting 195,958 individuals within these households. Overall, we mailed 886,140 pieces to this universe.
    * Universe outside Personal PAC birth control universe: 5 pieces, including one social pressure piece, to 103,015 households, targeting 127,938 individuals within these households. Overall, we mailed 515,075 pieces to this universe.
    * Downstate universe: 7 pieces to 56,418 households, targeting a total of 63,872 individuals within these households. Overall, we mailed 394,926 pieces to this universe.
    * Statewide universe: 3 pieces, including one social pressure letter, to a universe of 324,204 households, targeting a total of 377,461 voters within these households. Overall, we mailed 972,612 pieces to this universe.

In total, we sent 2,768,753 pieces of mail for the campaign.

Digital:
Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Pandora as well as video and display ads were matched from the voter file… The advertising has resulted in more than 79 million impressions to date, … including 5 million views of our television commercials online. By Election Day there will be more than 120 million impressions to our targeted universe.

None of it worked.

* But there’s something that Madigan and other Democrats appear to have overlooked. The Chicago Board of Elections is obviously woefully underfunded.

Remember the tales of one to two-hour waits during early voting? There’s no better way to depress turnout than making people stand in line for two hours. Lots and lots of people just don’t have the patience or commitment to endure something like that.

Mayor Emanuel, members of the city council and many others were enraged by the GOP robocall effort that they believed caused lots of Republican election judges to skip election day, thereby causing confusion and long lines.

OK, maybe that happened, maybe not. But the hard truth is there are always long lines on election day in the city. The Board typically recruits and trains 10,000 judges or so. They need more judges to speed up the process.

People ride by the polling place in the morning and see long lines and can’t vote because they’ll be late for work. They wait until after work and see even longer lines and just give up and go home.

* And remember the city’s same-day registration/voting problems? Some people waited in line until 3 o’clock in the morning to vote. Who knows how many more saw those lines and walked away.

Why did this happen? Well, the new state law mandated a minimum number of same day polling places. Cook County opened far more than the minimum requirements and didn’t have the sort of problems faced by Chicago, which operated at the bare minimum level.

* In contrast, there’s almost never a line at my polling place. This year, three people were waiting in front of me and I was astonished. If the line had snaked out the front door and wrapped around the building, as it often does in Chicago, I probably wouldn’t have voted and made a mental note to vote early or by mail next time.

I absolutely hate long lines. This goes back to the days when my parents worked for the Department of Defense overseas and we were forced to wait in endless lines to buy just about anything or to accomplish any government-related task. I told myself I would never, ever work for the federal government when I grew up. No more lines!

I cannot possibly be alone in this.

So, Speaker, Mayor, City Council, whomever, if you want more people to vote in Chicago next time, find more money to hire more judges and open more polling places to reduce the freakishly long lines.

This ain’t rocket science!

/rant

  37 Comments      


Sun-Times pushes their guy to cut a gun control deal

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Sun-Times editorial board is hopeful that the man they helped elect governor will now pursue some “sensible” gun control laws

Rauner must build a bridge to Democratic leaders such as Senate President John Cullerton — a strong proponent of sensible gun measures — if he hopes to have any chance of achieving his ambitious agenda of financial, budgetary and business reforms. This is his bargaining chip. This is how true bipartisanship in Springfield begins.

Even the most obviously worthy and unthreatening gun-control measures, such as strengthening penalties for folks who fail to report when a gun is lost or stolen, will never become law in Illinois without bipartisan support. Democrats don’t have the votes to do it alone, and members of both parties, especially Downstate, fear the wrath of the extremist NRA. But a Republican governor unbeholden to the gun lobby, one who appeals directly to the good conscience of Illinois gun owners — who, according to surveys, are much more open to gun reforms than the NRA leadership — can build real bipartisanship.

The thing about Cullerton is he’s always willing and open to cutting a deal. It’s in his bones. So, they may have a point.

* The paper asked the Rauner campaign for a response

“Bruce supports background checks and measures that keep guns away from criminals and the mentally ill. He looks forward to working with the General Assembly on common-sense proposals that keep our citizens safe while respecting law-abiding citizens.”

How should we take that?

Most likely it’s just the usual noncommittal nothing that his team perfected to a high art during the campaign.

But the statement did say “looks forward to working” with the Legislature on “common-sense proposals.”

Just maybe that’s the sound of an opening door.

Or not.

But Rauner did say repeatedly during the campaign that Gov. Quinn had “failed” on the crime issue. It’s on him now to fix it.

  34 Comments      


Illinoisans to Tea Party: Meh

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More from that poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute…

The poll also showed that while Illinoisans remain tax averse, it appears the appeal of the Tea Party movement has waned somewhat since the Simon Poll first asked about it.

• In 2010, four in ten respondents (41.2 percent) agreed or strongly agreed with the Tea Party, compared with just 20.7 percent in 2014. However, disagreement didn’t jump as much as agreement fell; 36.4 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed with the Tea Party in 2010, compared with 38.4 percent today.

The difference, so to speak, is indifference. One in five (19.4 percent) expressed no opinion of the Tea Party in 2010, while almost twice as many (36.9 percent) had no opinion in 2014.

• Similarly, while a third of respondents (33.1 percent) in 2010 said they would be more likely to vote for a Tea Party candidate, that number fell to about one in five (20.7 percent) in 2014.

Indifference is right. That crowd had little voice in this year’s election.

I think it’ll be fascinating watching various conservative groups react to Bruce Rauner’s administration. He not only has the money to fend off any and all attacks from his right flank, but that mountain of cash can be really intimidating.

  31 Comments      


Caption contest!

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Speaker Madigan on the phone back in the day

  122 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Nov 13, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Malicious or just plain stupid?

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Associated Press

Robocalls that Chicago election officials blamed for the no-show of 2,000 election judges this week were recorded by people helping Cook County Republicans recruit poll workers and who were trying to ensure those judges voted for the GOP, according to recordings of the calls.

But the chairman of the Cook County GOP says the calls were not sanctioned by the party.

Chicago election officials have referred the issue to the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office, which has begun an investigation. No charges have been filed.

The calls were first brought to the public’s attention Monday by city officials who labeled them “intimidation” and who later linked them to the higher than usual absentee rate of judges at the polls. While no one claims the calls affected the outcome of the vote, election officials said the judges’ confusion left them scrambling to find last-minute stand-ins and contributed to long lines and delays at polling places throughout the city.

OK, first of all, I was on the conference call when the spokesman for the Chicago Board of Elections Commissioners talked to reporters about the robocalls. He never said that 2,000 judges didn’t show up because of the calls. He said that, typically “more than a thousand” judges don’t show up on election day and stressed that the board wouldn’t know who the no-shows were and how many didn’t show up until pay slips were processed.

* Mark Brown

Sources tell me Chicago election officials went into Tuesday’s voting with at least 1,500 election judge vacancies, regarded as less than optimum but not out of the norm.

Either way, the “2,000 judges didn’t show up because of robocalls” line is false. Period.

At the time, the city board spokesman was simply passing along what he was hearing from the judges, many of whom were extremely upset and some of whom had quit. But he went out of his way not to say which party may have been targeted.

* He also said that the calls could’ve been mere “incompetence.” Here is the transcript for two of the calls

“This is your Chicago election judge coordinator Jim Parrilli. I’m calling to let you know that tomorrow, Nov. 1, we are having an additional training at our headquarters from 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. … Beverages will be served. We will have people there to answer any question you might have about your responsibility as election judge on Tuesday, Nov. 4.”

Judges were told to go to 411 E. 79th St. (which is a vacant lot) or 8340 S. Western, according to Brown. On Nov. 1, a follow-up call told judges to go to 711 E. 79th (a clothing store) and 8140 S. Western. The GOP campaign office is actually at 511 E. 79th St., Brown reports, and 8340 S. Western was rented by the Cook County Republican Party.

According to the board spokesman on election day, some judges thought the city should pay them for the extra training and quit. People don’t often hear details too well on the phone, especially with calls like these. Back in my youthful telemarketing days (Amoco Motor Club), part of our training involved telling us that people don’t usually pick up on the first few words when they answer their phones. So I can understand how some thought this was an official training, and I can understand why the bad addresses made people even more suspect.

* And what about the calls telling judges they had to vote a straight GOP ticket? That didn’t really happen, either. Parilli was urging judges to vote early, just in case they were assigned to a precinct which wasn’t their own. During another robocall, he said judges are “required to participate in voting to be an election judge.” If “participate in voting” means registering to vote, I suppose that’s true. Otherwise, no.

And Parilli went on to say this during one call

“Part of being a Republican judge means supporting our Republican ticket.”

From a partisan rah-rah standpoint, I can see where he’s coming from. But there is no actual requirement.

* OK, back to Brown

[The Republican ward] committeeman blamed most of the problems on separate efforts by Sharon Meroni, one of the individuals involved in the robocalls, to purge Republican election judges with a history of Democratic voting.

Nelson and other committeemen confirmed an ongoing battle with Meroni in the weeks before the election as they tried to protect the election judges they had selected.

Just a day before the robocalls started, Meroni went before a Cook County Circuit judge in an unsuccessful bid to dump 480 Republican election judges on the basis of party loyalty.

As I explained earlier, Meroni was the Cook County GOP’s election judge coordinator, presenting herself before both city and county election officials as the designated representative of Cook County Republican chairman Aaron Del Mar.

Del Mar insisted to me that Meroni was just a volunteer, one among hundreds, even though the party paid $5,000 to her company in the months before the election. On Tuesday, he said he’s no longer going to comment.

Ironically enough, Meroni is a crusader against “vote fraud”.

  41 Comments      


Looking out for my own interests, as well as Illinois’

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Change Illinois coalition looked at what happens in the first legislative election after a new district map is enacted into law

Look at the number for competitive races, which are defined as losing candidates who received at least 45 percent of the vote.

And, really, it ain’t very “competitive” if somebody gets beat by nine points.

I’ve long said that the remapping process is broken. Most people agree. It has to be changed. This is unhealthy for a democracy. And, speaking frankly, it’s also not good for my business model. I need more races to cover, not fewer.

Other factors play into this, of course. Why didn’t the Republicans field and fund serious challengers to Lisa Madigan, Jesse White and all countywide Democrats in Cook? Because 1) it would be a waste of money, but more importantly 2) it would prompt those incumbents to spend big bucks on their reelection and that could hurt the Republicans. Same goes for legislative contests. Typically, the House Dems won’t unnecessarily back a sure-loser if it would hurt a Dem Senator, for example.

And there is no way that all, or even nearly all districts in this state can be drawn so they’re competitive. Parties are clustered. You can’t draw a GOP district on the South Side of Chicago, for instance. You can’t draw a Democratic district using McLean County as its base. If that could’ve been done, the Democrats woulda tried the last time around.

Overall, though, we have a very serious problem with how the maps are drawn.

* Democrats haven’t wanted to change the system because they benefited from it in 2011, when they had a Democratic governor. If Bruce Rauner wins two terms, however, they only have a 50-50 chance of controlling the map process (unless they can work out a compromise, which probably can’t happen).

The Democrats should look at another part of that chart - seats gained after a remap - and start thinking really hard about their party’s legislative future. They’re on top of the world now, and they may end up picking up even more seats in 2016, but their grip on power could be seriously diminished and possibly even gone with a Republican map drawn to be as partisan as the current one.

They would likely be better off with a neutral map. And so would Illinois.

…And so would I.

  42 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* What one word best describes your post-election mood? One word only, please. And, of course, keep it clean.

  115 Comments      


UPDATE: $580 MILLION EXELON RATE HIKE?? Do They Really Need a Bailout After Making Nearly $1 BILLION In The Last 90 Days?

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

“Chicago-based Exelon’s profit rose 26 percent in the third quarter…The country’s largest owner of nuclear power plants, Exelon reported net income of $993 million…”[Chicago Tribune, October 29, 2014 – emphasis added]

Just this past week, a Crain’s analysis revealed that contrary to their claims, Exelon may not be in dire straits after all:

“The analysis…raises questions about whether the state effectively will be asked to compel ratepayers to subsidize a profitable enterprise.” [Crain’s, October 27, 2014 – emphasis added]

Illinois’ businesses and citizens are still struggling. The last thing we need is a massive rate increase to bail out Exelon nuclear plants built during the Nixon administration and already paid for several times by ratepayers.

Even ComEd, Exelon’s own sister company, doesn’t agree with subsidized generation at above-market prices:

“ComEd has long believed that competitive markets will work in the best interests of our customers…so we are concerned about the negative impact on our customers from a requirement that would force utilities to buy subsidized generation at above-market prices.” [Crain’s Chicago Business, November 20, 2013]

Just Say No To Exelon’s $580 Million Rate Hike!!

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Clean Energy Employs Nearly 100,000 Illinoisans; 9,000 More Next Year. How Many More Clean Energy Jobs Would Illinois Have If Springfield Did Its Job?

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

Nearly 100,000 workers in Illinois are employed in clean energy jobs. The clean energy industry – including renewable energy and energy efficiency – is roughly the size of Illinois’ real estate and accounting industries combined.

Illinois’ clean energy industry is a growth-stage industry, with an average firm size of six employees and projected employment growth of 9% every year.

Clean energy workers are manufacturing wind and solar equipment, building and operating clean energy projects and installing and upgrading energy efficiency systems. Thanks to these jobs, Illinois families and businesses are saving energy and cutting their electricity bills. No wonder voters overwhelmingly back clean energy:

    • 84% of Illinois voters want to prioritize a clean energy future and more towards cleaner sources of energy

    • 75% see renewable energy and energy efficiency as secure, reliable and affordable.

    • More than 65% recognize renewable energy and energy efficiency as sources of job creation.

    • More than 68% recognize that renewable energy and energy efficiency stabilize or reduce energy costs.

The message from Illinoisans is clear: Voters want legislators to prioritize voter-supported renewable energy and energy efficiency, supporting policies that maximize Illinois clean energy jobs.

Data from survey conducted by a bipartisan research team of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) and Public Opinion Strategies. More info on this poll is available at ilenviro.org/cleanenergypoll.

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Ride-sharing: Close the Insurance Gap that Leaves Everyone Vulnerable

Wednesday, Nov 12, 2014 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

The Illinois Insurance Association and the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America urge lawmakers to override Governor Pat Quinn’s veto of HB 4075 & 5331.

While we support innovation and welcome new transportation choices in the marketplace, consumer safety is of utmost concern. It is vitally important that the vehicles used by commercial ride-sharing services are properly insured and the public protected in the event of an accident.

HB 4075 and 5331 are needed in Illinois to clarify what insurance coverage is being provided and when. There should be a uniform statewide approach to protecting consumers to avoid the creation of a confusing and costly patchwork of local regulations. Without these bills, there will continue to be uncertainty whether there is proper coverage for injuries or damage arising out of an accident.

Uber and Lyft supported statewide legislation in California and Colorado which requires primary insurance coverage from when the app is turned on until it is turned off. They should provide Illinoisans this same type of protection.

Override the veto and provide clear consistent statewide rules that don’t leave policyholders or accident victims in the lurch because of coverage disputes.

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