* It appears that things didn’t go so well for Bill Brady at a Chicago press conference with New Jersey’s Gov. Christie…
Brady cut short his news conference amid questions about his plans for Illinois’ $13 billion deficit.
Chicago reporters asking about the deficit? Will wonders never cease? They even got in a good one about Christie…
[Brady] also had nothing to say about Christie skipping a $3 billion pension payment. Illinois has skipped payments, too, and Brady called it irresponsible.
It’s amazing what a few polls showing a tight race can do.
*** UPDATE *** It wasn’t pretty, apparently. Tribune…
Republican governor candidate Bill Brady has been blasting Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn for taxing, spending and borrowing, but today Brady refused to rule out borrowing a record $50 billion to shore up state finances.
“All options have to be considered,” Brady said.
Brady’s willingness to consider massive borrowing for the state employee pension systems came in response to questions at a downtown news conference where the candidate sought in vain to focus on his endorsementy by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a darling of Republicans and conservatives.
He’d fill much of the existing $80-billion hole in the state’s pension plans by borrowing. The borrowing would be repaid by allotting much of the natural growth in state revenues to pension debt service, he says.
Um, there is no revenue growth, natural or otherwise.
“We’ve had…18 months of Gov. Quinn and I just don’t think managing is necessarily his suit. I think he means well, but I just don’t think that’s what he’s cut out to do,” Edgar said Wednesday, following a lecture at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “Whereas Bill Brady we don’t know for sure, he hasn’t been governor. He has some business experience. I’m willing to take a chance there, too.”
He’s right about Quinn. But, as our prolific and indispensable commenter “Wordslinger” noted earlier today…
Bill Brady is a relatively common name, which may explain the contradictory Bill Brady budget and economic comments out there.
–Bill Brady I was in the GA 17 years and voted on budgets, presumably with some idea of what’s in them.
–Bill Brady II has no idea what’s in the state budget, how it is being spent, who is owed money and how much, and will need a “forensic audit” to sort it all out.
– Bill Brady III is confident enough in the information he has to state that he can cut taxes and close the deficit in one year.
– Bill Brady IV is against more borrowing.
– Bill Brady V wants to float a $50 billion pension obligation bond.
– Bill Brady VI is a businessman who knows how to “grow” jobs in a lousy economy.
– Bill Brady VII is a businessman who shed jobs in a lousy economy.
I’m sure there will be more and different Bill Brady sightings in the coming weeks.
* We’ve all seen the ads and the press releases from both sides of the US Senate race.
“He’s a mob banker!” “He’s a liar!” “He didn’t pay taxes!” “He’s a liar!” Etc., etc.
Well, Rick Pearson of the Tribune finally had enough of it and during yesterday’s editorial board debate he decided to see if Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk were man enough to say this stuff to each others’ faces. The results were fairly predictable…
But all that talk about “issues” and such didn’t last. Here’s the latest missive from the National Republican Senatorial Committee…
Good morning –
In case you missed it, mob banker Alexi Giannoulias was unable to name a single federal spending measure that he would have voted against during a recent meeting with the Chicago Tribune.
* The Illinois Republican Party really roughed up the Constitution Party. After weeks and weeks of turmoil, an appellate panel has denied the party a ballot spot…
The appellate judges dismissed the party’s claim that it turned in the required 25,000 signatures of registered voters. At issue: 82 signatures, which were thrown out, that could’ve swung the decision the other way. The judges ruled those signatures were no good because they were collected by someone who also collected signatures for another party in the primary.
The Constitution Party lawyer says, “Obviously [this was] not the final result we were looking for.” He says he plans to ask the appellate court to reconsider.
* Joe Berrios has never been known as a pushover, and his campaign is not sitting still for the beating it’s taking from Chicago’s media, the Better Government Association and rival county assessor candidate Forrest Claypool.
Berrios has filed an IRS complaint alleging that the BGA is engaging in unlawful campaign activities on behalf of Claypool. Berrios’ campaign has pointed out that the Chicago Tribune ignored a story about pay raises granted by Claypool despite a county board wage freeze. He’s claimed that Claypool actually will increase property taxes.
And now Berrios is going after Claypool’s campaign contributors.
Berrios more than just implies that several of Claypool’s major contributors donated cash after Berrios’ Board of Appeals denied their requests for property tax cuts. The site is called Victims of Joe Berrios.com. One example…
In 2009, Richard Driehaus appealed to Joe Berrios for a tax break on his $2,229,980 mansion.
Joe Berrios said no!
So Richard gave $150,000 to Forrest Claypool’s campaign for Cook County Assessor.
Another victim of Joe Berrios, vindicated!
Yikes. The site features photos of many of the properties. It also includes this explanation…
All of these wealthy Chicagoans filed appeals to get tax breaks with the Board of Review, only to be denied.
Their properties include mansions, condos and parking spaces - at places such as Water Tower Place and along the Gold Coast.
When these affluent folks didn’t catch a break, they turned to someone who could help them in the future: former Democrat Forrest Claypool.
How did they help? By giving him more than $500,000 in just six months’ time so that he could run for the job of Cook County assessor, a role that would allow him to give them breaks before they even have to appeal to the Board of Review.
The public deserves to know that the best candidate for the job is the person who doesn’t take money from millionaires and billionaires hoping to shirk their fair share of property taxes. That person is Joe Berrios.
Chutzpah. But I’ll bet Berrios would say that to Claypool’s face.
…Adding… Oh, man, I didn’t even see this one…
In 2007, Jan Schakowsky appealed to Joe Berrios for a tax break on her $726,450 love nest.
Joe Berrios said no!
So Jan gave her coveted endorsement to Forrest Claypool’s campaign for Cook County Assessor. [Emphasis added]
Ouch.
* In other hardball news, Planned Parenthood is trying to get the word out about what conservative Bill Brady could do if elected governor. From a press release…
After eliminating all family planning funding and negatively impacting 40,000 patients in his state, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie today stumps for Bill Brady in campaigning efforts across Illinois. Now the women of Illinois want to know, will Bill Brady cut family planning funding in Illinois just like NJ Governor Christie? […]
Christie’s first action as governor was to end all state family planning funding and stop New Jersey from implementing a Medicaid family planning program similar to the Illinois Healthy Women family planning program. As a result, an estimated 40,000 patients will lose access to this critical health care service in New Jersey. With the Governor’s action, Planned Parenthood of Southern New Jersey recently closed a health center and 57 additional health care providers will be impacted.
“Health professionals who provide family planning are often the only source of health care services for women and families who have no health insurance coverage,” said Pam Sutherland of PPIA. “Christie is trying to push through his opposition to family planning under the cover of cost cutting. But women and the state are eventually bound to pay the cost.”
Just because it’s appropriated, doesn’t mean it has to be spent.
Ultimately, though, Dold seems to fall back on the usual Republican talking points, some utterly baseless. He is pushing the latest GOP line, for example, that the nation’s slow progress in creating new jobs is the fault of an unpredictable business climate created by Obama administration policies.
As if the great recession never happened.
* Roundup…
* Quinn, officials fight unlimited spending: Elected officials from five states are forming a coalition aimed at fighting unlimited campaign spending by corporations and independent groups. The group is known as CAPS. That stands for Coalition for Accountability in Political Spending.
* Biggert deserves re-election to House: Reviewing the voting record of the last year, you’d be hard-pressed to find a bipartisan Republican in Congress. Such are the politically polarized times we live in.
* Bean right for her district: Melissa Bean is a different kind of Democrat by Illinois standards, more opposed to taxes, more a defender of big banks and more fiscally conservative in general.
I don’t get it. How is Kelly supposed to beat the streets firing up the Democratic base when the Democratic Party won’t so much as fill up her gas tank?
Steve Brown, the spokesman for House Speaker Michael Madigan, who is chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, could not tell me if the party raised a penny to help Kelly’s campaign.
“The party is doing for her what they have done for other candidates,” Brown told me, without giving any specifics.
“We are working with the Illinois Coordinated Campaign being run by [U.S. Sen.] Dick Durbin. They are raising money,” he said.
Dave Seman of the Illinois Democratic Coordinated Campaign said,”We do not hand out cash to any campaign. We provide a pooling of infrastructure . . . to benefit all campaigns.”
“I didn’t expect help, and I’m not letting it stop me,” Kelly told me.
* The Question: Should the Democratic Party of Illinois provide significant funds to down-ballot statewide candidates like Kelly and David Miller? Explain.
* Rasmussen Reports has a new poll out for the US Senate race. But once again, Raz did not include all candidate names in a poll. Feel free to look at it. But from now on, I will not be posting any polls that do not include all candidate names.
While Gov. Pat Quinn has accused his opponent of telling voters fairy tales about balancing the budget, he provided only a hazy picture Monday of how he would close the $13 billion deficit and then move Illinois forward.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Quinn said he would solve the state’s budget crisis by spending more on education. He hopes “investing in people” will help the Illinois economy grow and fill the budget hole when coupled with unspecified spending cuts and the possibility of more federal aid.
The governor is apparently still hoping for lots of magical federal faerie dust, which will duly be sprinkled throughout the land. Huzzahs for faerie dust! Huzzah!…
* That faerie dust will sure come in handy to pay off the state’s backlog of bills, which is now $6.4 billion. But Quinn better find some soon, because he’s promised to pay all those bills off by the end of December…
Governor Pat Quinn “is committed to paying all” bills from 2010, which ended in June, by the end of this year, said Kelly Kraft, a spokeswoman. Quinn, a Democrat, is working to reduce the deficit and will need the help of the Legislature, she said.
The Legislature? We don’t need no stinking Legislature when we have faeries! Seriously. Magic is so much more fun…
* Anyway, back to the budget, which sucks, of course. The Commission on Goverment Forecasting and Accountability’s September report is out. Not good…
Excluding short-term borrowing, base general funds revenues are up $266 million through September. However, absent $263 million from first quarter As shown on page 7, through the first quarter of FY 2011, overall base revenues are up $266 million. When the falloff in federal sources is excluded, the gain increases to $397 million. However, as mentioned earlier, much of the year to date increase is attributed to interfund borrowing, which throughout the first quarter totaled $263 million. Absent that action, receipts through the first three months of the fiscal year have been expectedly lackluster.
“Expectedly lackluster.” Great. But, wait a moment. According to this video, faeries are real…
So, maybe all hope is not lost. Yes, indeedy. All we have to do is just find out where they taped that faerie, go catch it and immediately hand it over to the Office of Management and Budget. Problem solved.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady told supporters in Galesburg Monday that if elected he would cut taxes and close the state’s deficit in his first year in office. […]
Asked if that was a realistic statement, Brady responded, “absolutely.”
In his first year, he says? Huzzahs!!! Huzzahs!!! We are saved!!! All hail Bill Brady, the new King of the faeries….
Plummer said his experience in hiring and managing people at the family lumber business has prepared him to run Illinois, the country’s fifth-largest economy. Business is “a background where you have to perform or you don’t make it,” he said.
A tax amnesty program designed to bring an influx of cash into the state’s floundering bank account could bring in less revenue than advertised.
In a report issued Monday, Comptroller Dan Hynes said the possible shortfall could further jeopardize the state’s already shaky ability to pay down its old bills by the end of this calendar year.
“This would create a scenario in which unsatisfied payees could be forced to seek legal and judicial remedies to obtain payments in amounts unprecedented in the state’s history,” he noted.
Curiously enough, there are no videos for “tax amnesty faerie” on YouTube.
* Scott Lee Cohen recently appeared on “Public Affairs” with host Jeff Berkowitz. The host did a pretty good job of letting Cohen talk about his programs, but then methodically zeroed in on his, um, “issues.”
Cohen stumbled a few times when talking about his budget plans. And he refused at first to answer a question about his net worth, eventually saying it is between $6 and $7 million. He claimed he’s put $3-4 million into the campaign since the primary. That’s not exactly evident. He says he’s about half-way to his degree at DePaul and wants to eventually obtain a law degree.
Cohen called last week’s Chicago Tribune editorial board “debate” a “witch hunt, not an endorsement session” because of the pointed questions they asked him. He said that Bill Brady and Pat Quinn spent their time at the meeting “making asses of themselves.” Cohen also said of Tribune columnist Eric Zorn, “He’s pretty ignorant.” Zorn claimed Cohen quickly “folded” under pressure and bowed out of the lt. governor’s race.
“Character does count,” Cohen said when pushed by Berkowitz. “Look at half the legislators out there, they’ve been arrested for different things,” Cohen claimed, adding that unnamed people had been “convicted” of armed robbery and are still in politics. He said his own arrest for allegedly knifing his alleged prostitute girlfriend was “nonsense.” He also claimed that he pays child support. His ex-wife had taken him to court over the issue.
* Meanwhile, Cohen plans to unveil a new jobs plan tomorrow morning at the Odyssey Yacht at Navy Pier. A press release claims “upwards of one hundred veterans and others” will be there as well. From that press release…
According to Cohen, “The All Hands on Deck” program will focus on those who have suffered chronic unemployment, like veterans, the disabled, teenagers, tech workers and ex-offenders.”
“This is a significant economic recovery plan for the state of Illinois,” says Swilley. “It is capturing the attention of social service agencies, unions, and businesses large and small.”
“As far as I’m concerned”, says Cohen, “The All Hands On Deck” plan, is the heart and soul of what our campaign is all about. It’s a down payment on a big investment in the people of Illinois.”
* So far, nobody has asked Bill Brady about the solid evidence that Cohen is hurting his candidacy. Any ideas how Brady can deal with this?
* If Congressman Phil Hare thinks this obtuse TV ad is a winner for him, he probably has another thing coming. Watch if you dare…
“Bobby Schilling refuses to let Medicare negotiate volume discounts on prescriptions”? I understood what Hare was saying, but my eyes still glazed over. Seriously, that’s all he’s got?
* The Illinois Education Association uses Abe Lincoln to bash Bill Brady. Kinda funny, but a prime example of how the Interwebtubes has spawned a whole lot of amateurish campaign videos…
* The Pat Quinn campaign has updated its labor union video to include the factoid that Jason Plummer’s family company is the “number 2 non-union homebuilder in the state of Illinois.” Brady’s company is the largest, according to the video. Watch it…
* Green Party gubernatorial nominee Rich Whitney has posted his 5-minute ABC7 video. The station asks that the candidates stand or sit in front of a plain background and speak to the camera about issues. Here it is…
* Other videos…
* BlueStream.com will offer live coverage of a press conference with Robin Kelly, State Treasurer Candidate at 11:00 am from the blue room in Springfield.
Oglesby, who served as Stroger’s re-election campaign spokeswoman before joining his administration in the $120,000-a-year post after his defeat in the Democratic primary in February, had been under investigation over so-called 24-9 contracts, including one issued to her own CGC Communications public-relations firm.
The contracts are named for being just under the $25,000 threshold requiring approval by the Cook County Board. Oglesby issued one to CGC for $24,975 in the days immediately after her hiring.
So Vrdolyak, 72, remains on track to be re-sentenced Oct. 15 for conspiring with politically connected businessman Stuart Levine to win a $1.5 million kickback off the sale of a Gold Coast property.
* ComEd rebates worth $48M could result from court ruling
The Sept. 30 decision determined that the Illinois Commerce Commission acted improperly when it permitted ComEd to raise rates based on anticipated future costs without giving ratepayers the benefit of the utility’s savings as it depreciated assets. That ruling could mean refunds for ComEd customers, the utility disclosed Monday.
The issue is arcane, but it accounts for a sizeable percentage of recent rate hikes by both ComEd and Peoples Gas.
The measure would, for the first time, cap the amount of campaign money county officials could get from donors: no more than $5,000 a year from an individual, or $10,000 from corporations or campaign committees.
In the 2009-10 school year, 18 elementary schools made adequate yearly progress the minimum level required to be considered a successful school under state and federal No Child Left Behind standards. The other 22 elementary schools in the district, which also includes all or part of South Elgin, Bartlett, Streamwood and Hanover Park, did not meet state standards.
* Greg Hinz at Crain’s writes today about an editorial board meeting with Bill Brady late last week. Among other things, Brady said he wants to do a huge pension bond deal, perhaps as much as $50 billion.
But most of what Hinz writes about today is Brady’s claim that he can cut ten percent of all spending to balance the budget. The object, Brady said, is to cut 10 percent from $45 billion of available spending. But Hinz heard something different…
Mr. Brady’s own number guys have told him that so many things like federal programs and debt service would have to be exempt that the remaining programs would have to be cut nearly 20%.
No, he hasn’t been told that, he replied. But “it’s possible” the average cuts would exceed 10%, depending on how fast his administration could boost income by creating new private-sector jobs.
And Brady’s numbers for the deficit are off as well….
Once you take things like the $14-billion Medicaid program off the table, which is mostly funded by the federal government, “maybe $30 billion” remains on the table for the 10% cuts. And the real deficit actually is more like $7 billion than $5 billion, [Taxpayers Federation president Tom Johnson] says.
In other words, without new revenues, “you’d need about 20%” in cuts to balance the budget.
That would be on top of what has already been cut.
And according to the comptroller’s office, the state’s bill backlog for last fiscal year now stands at more than $6.4 billion, or 23 percent of total FY 2010 base revenues. On top of that, the state has accumulated another $3.5 billion in unpaid bills for this fiscal year.
For sure, $44,000 isn’t a whole lot of money compared to the state’s $13 billion budget deficit.
But, when it comes to cutting the state budget during an economic downturn, you have to start somewhere.
The early returns on one of Gov. Pat Quinn’s attempts to reduce state spending show at least three of his agencies have complied with an edict to cut out magazine and newspaper subscriptions.
The governor’s directive, issued in July, also asked agencies to find savings in other areas, including telephone costs, travel and overtime. […]
At the Illinois Emergency Management Agency, the order has meant the end of morning delivery of two daily newspapers and the political newsletter Capitol Fax.
Like every other publication in this state, I do have several agencies as subscribers. I haven’t pushed them for payment or complained about late payments and I’m more than willing to work with the agencies as they try to get through this. All they have to do is ask.
Gov. Pat Quinn says he’d push for legislation forcing public officials to pay income tax on their state salaries, even if business losses wipe out their income.
Quinn has criticized Republican Bill Brady for not paying federal income taxes, implying the state senator did something improper.
But Brady didn’t pay taxes because his state salary was more than wiped out by his business losses.
Quinn said Monday that Brady should’ve paid taxes on the publicly funded part of his salary anyway.
Gov. Pat Quinn says Republican opponent Bill Brady and House Speaker Michael Madigan wouldn’t be in office today if a constitutional amendment to impose term limits he supported years ago had gotten on the ballot.
In an interview Monday with The Associated Press, Quinn wouldn’t say if Madigan has overstayed his welcome in Springfield. Quinn says it’s up to voters in Madigan’s district and lawmakers in Springfield to decide if he keeps his seat and remains speaker.
Thoughts?
* Related…
* Quinn vague on ideas for Ill. future: Gov. Pat Quinn isn’t offering many details on what more he would do to repair the state budget or where he’d like to take Illinois if he wins a full term.
* A new Suffolk University poll has Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bill Brady 43-37. The toplines are here. From the pollster…
Quinn’s margins over Brady among ages 18-44 years (+25 points), Cook County voters (+30 points), and minority voters (+38 points) are the driving forces behind the Democrat’s edge in the statewide numbers.
I called the pollster because I noticed an error in the toplines. They show “Chicago” as being 38 percent of their universe. The pollster said this was a typo and it should read “Chicago and suburban Cook County.”
If you look at the extensive crosstabs, you’ll see Quinn is leading Brady 41-33 43-36 with women and 41-34 42-39 with men. I just don’t buy either of those results yet unless Quinn has performed some sort of crazy voodoo magic.
Still, the poll had Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias by a point, 42-41, which is in line with most other recent polls. And they had the generic congressional ballot essentially tied at 42 Democratic and 41 Republican. That is essentially the same result that Public Policy Polling got. So, it’s odd, man. Odd.
According to the pollster, Scott Lee Cohen is at 7 percent, Rich Whitney is at 3 percent and Lex Green is at 1 percent. I can buy those, too.
* The pollster was the first to survey the constitutional ballot question this year providing for gubernatorial recall. Just 48 percent were in favor and 44 percent were opposed.
* Other races…
* Lisa Madigan 63, Steve Kim 14
* Jesse White 60, Robert Enriquez 15
* Judy Baar Topinka 39. David Miller 23
* Dan Rutherford 32, Robin Kelly 26
* They also asked some policy questions. 18 percent said an ounce or less of marijuana should be legal, 19 percent said the amount should be decriminalized, and 33 percent said it should be legal only with a prescription. Total that up and you get 70 percent in favor of changing the state’s stupid laws. Just 21 percent said an ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances. Another 10 percent was undecided.
* 37 percent of voters came out “absolutely against” any legally recognized unions for same sex couples, while 24 percent supported civil unions and 30 percent backed legal marriage.
* And 69 percent backed term limits for Congress of six, two-year terms. 25 percent opposed it and 5 percent were undecided.
* Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson looks like this year’s version of Carol Moseley-Braun. No, not the CM-B who became the first black female US Senator in 1992. I mean the incumbent who spent six years doing basically nothing, not coming home, walling herself off from the media and compiling a less than mediocre legislative record.
When the choice is between a mediocre first-term U.S. representative who tends to vote your way and a young upstart of great promise who would just as likely vote the other way, whom do you support?
We’re going with the kid.
Halvorson was a good state legislator who understood how to win tough campaigns. She was out and about in her district and generally kept in touch. It was tough for her to watch her voting record after she became the Senate Majority Leader, but she was such a strong campaigner/legislator that she was wooed hard by the DC Dems. Apparently, she forgot every lesson she ever learned in Springfield.
…Adding… The Halvorson campaign just called with several instances where she was available to constituents. But the fact remains that the people I’ve talked to in her district who are in this business say she just hasn’t been nearly visible enough.
* In other congressional campaign news, the National Association of Realtors is spending $300,000 on television ads supporting Democratic incumbent Bill Foster. Watch the ad…
* FiveThirtyEight, by the way, has downgraded Republican chances of taking this seat and now has it as an even chance of a takeover. Nate Silver had categorized this as a “Lean Takeover” seat.
The NRCC has launched a TV ad blitz targeting 45 districts this week, marking the first time Republicans have been on the air in as many districts as they’ll need to take back control of the House. Republicans are spending big on the effort, dishing out $4.4M on the ad buys this week.
The blitz is significant because, like last week, Republicans are spending much more on the airwaves than Democrats. The ads are part of the GOP’s strategy of going on the attack early in an attempt to lock up seats. The DCCC, on the other hand, is reserving the bulk of its resources for the final couple of weeks before Election Day.
The ads - 25 of which are brand new — come a week after the NRCC went up in 30 districts. The NRCC has planned to spend $35M on TV in 55 districts so far.
The NRCC is targeting 17 Democrats with ad buys of $100K or more.
The NRCC is apparently running ads in 10 (Kirk open seat), 11 (Halvorson) and 14 (Foster).
* In other down-ballot news, the Tribune, as expected, endorsed Forrest Claypool. They laid it on thick…
No task for Cook County voters is more important than denying the Democratic machine control of the assessor’s office whose calculations of real estate values drive your property tax bills. Its candidate, Joe Berrios — who sits on the county’s tax appeals board, moonlights as a lobbyist and heads the County Democratic Party — is a one-man conflict of interests. Most egregiously, he lobbies Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton in Springfield — then returns to Chicago to handle their law firms’ tax appeals on behalf of big commercial clients.
There’s more. Can’t wait for the scourge of legalized video gambling to arrive at restaurants and bars near you? Thank lobbyist Berrios and his compliant cronies in Springfield. And did we mention that Berrios supported his pal Todd Stroger’s notorious hike in the sales tax? Stroger wound up with a 1-percentage-point tax increase; Berrios was happy with Stroger’s initial proposal for a 2-point gouge.
Berrios’ supporters have a warning for the renegades.
“Everyone will be held accountable,” 1st Ward Committeeman Jesse Ruben Juarez told me. “They don’t realize how many Latinos they have in their areas.”
In truth, neither race nor ethnicity nor controversial social issues are involved in this contest. It’s a simple matter of reform, and political strategist Kitty Kurth says it boils down to this:
“If Berrios is able to win, the Machine still exists.”
And if he loses?
There will be an eye-popping chink in the little that’s left of its armor.
* I’ve been having serious problems with my Firefox browser for a few days now, so I made the decision a couple of hours ago to switch over to a new browser. I’m not sure what’s going on, but the thing is freezing up constantly. Safari doesn’t work well with this blog platform, so I’m trying out Opera. Seems OK for now. But that’s why I’ve been so slow to post today.
* Anyway, on to The Question: Who do you think will be the biggest surprise winner this November? Explain.
* Last week’s Tribune poll with Pat Quinn leading Bill Brady by a point kick-started a whole lot of buzz behind the GOP curtain that the paper’s Senate poll would have Alexi Giannoulias with an even larger lead. So, Kirk did a little preemption by leaking his ad buy and his own internal poll to POLITICO, which dutifully published its story a couple of hours ahead of the Tribune poll release Friday night…
Republican Mark Kirk has reserved almost $5.2 million worth of advertisements for the final weeks of the competitive Illinois Senate race, POLITICO has learned. […]
Kirk’s campaign is prepared to empty its arsenal and spend about $1 million each week in an effort to win the Senate seat previously held by President Barack Obama. […]
Kirk campaign’s own polling shows him ahead: An internal polling memo from the Kirk campaign and obtained by POLITICO shows him holding a 9-point lead. Kirk had 42 percent and Giannoulias had 33 percent, per a Kirk-sponsored Fulcrum Campaign Strategies poll taken Sept. 26-29 of 900 likely voters in Illinois. About 22 percent of survey respondents were undecided and the Green Party nominee, LeAlan Jones, received 2 percent in the poll.
A potentially troubling sign for Kirk is that voters in the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties were almost equally split between the two candidates on the trustworthiness question.
In addition, 41 percent of voters, including 42 percent of independents, said they were less likely to vote for Kirk because of his exaggerated military claims, while 59 percent said it made no difference or didn’t know enough to decide.
About one-third of voters, including the same percentage of independents, said Giannoulias’ connection to the bank and loans to convicted felons would make them less likely to vote for the Democrat. The remaining nearly two-thirds said it didn’t matter or didn’t know enough to weigh in. […]
Kirk’s esteem dipped among independent voters, a key swing demographic. A month ago, only 17 percent viewed him unfavorably. Now 34 percent do. Overall, Kirk holds a 38 percent to 27 percent edge over Giannoulias among independents, similar to his margin last time, though 22 percent are undecided.
Rahm Emanuel’s campaign for mayor got underway today without a formal announcement of his bid to replace retiring Mayor Richard Daley. Instead, he is inviting Chicago residents to give him an earful in what’s shaping up to be a carefully orchestrated tour of neighborhoods.
Emanuel, who just left as White House chief of staff on Friday, started what he says is several weeks of community visits by hitting CTA bus stops near Roosevelt Road and State Street at 8 a.m. He spent about 45 minutes atop the “El” platform shaking hands with commuters and parents taking their children to school.
It was a scene of old-school street politics as Emanuel gladhanded, asking people where they worked, where they lived and wished them a happy Monday. […]
A throng of reporters and cameras, both newspaper and TV, recorded the events. Emanuel, though, wasn’t answering any questions from the press.
A reader’s take…
I caught the first appearance of Rahm on his “listening tour” this morning. He came to the Roosevelt Road L stop. Tons of reporters, cops and CTA personnel, very little interaction with potential voters, much less Rahm listening to the voters’ concerns. He was there for less than 30 minutes and then ran across Roosevelt Road, press and everyone else in tow, to go into the Jewel at Roosevelt and Wabash.
This is no “listening tour.” It’s a publicity stunt. The media allowed itself to be used once again by this guy.
Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel has chosen Scott Fairchild, the chief of staff for Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), to manage his campaign for mayor of Chicago, POLITICO has learned. […]
Fairchild was also a senior adviser to Illinois Rep. Bill Foster’s successful 2008 campaign to claim former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat. After the election, he oversaw Foster’s transition in Congress.
*** UPDATE *** Many thanks to a commenter for pointing me to this story…
“I was born here and my wife Amy and I raised our three children here,” he says. “I’m glad to be home.”
But an Emanuel spokeswoman, Lori Goldberg, confirms that the video itself was actually filmed in Washington, D.C., in the offices of AKPD media, the firm founded by David Axelrod. […]
Emails Joe Trippi, a consultant to Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, “A DC office? I guess there is no place like home.”
As Emanuel apparently still owns his home and has a longstanding residence in Chicago, I think he’ll have no problem declaring and demonstrating that he had an intent to return.
This issue is of some importance here as professors on sabbatical or otherwise away have been known to rent out their homes while they are gone. This does not take away their right to vote.
“The guy does not meet the statutory requirements to run for mayor,” said attorney Burt Odelson. “He hasn’t been back there in 18 months. Residency cases are usually very hard to prove because the candidate gets an apartment or says he’s living in his mother’s basement. Here the facts are easy to prove. He doesn’t dispute he’s been in Washington for the past 18 months. This is not a hard case.”
* Rahmup…
* Chicago aldermen offended by Emanuel’s royal send-off: Asked whether he believes Obama should “stay out of it,” Burke said, “I think he ought to get into it and help elect Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias.”
While the Republicans say the pollsters are contacting the wrong people, the fact remains that three polls released last week had the Illinois governor’s race within 2 percentage points. And five polls released in the past month have shown it to be a single-digit race.
The Chicago Tribune’s pollster had Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn leading Republican state Sen. Bill Brady 39 percent to 38 percent last week, which is a narrower margin than its 5-point Brady lead a month ago. A CNN/Time poll had Brady up by 2 points, and a Democratic Governor’s Association poll had Brady up by 1 point. Public Policy Polling had Brady with a 7-point lead.
The Republicans say the “universe” is skewed on all these polls. They believe that Republicans actually outnumber Democrats come Election Day by a narrow margin. At the very least, they say, those other polls just skew too far Democratic.
If the Republicans are right, it would be the first time their party would outnumber or come close to outnumbering Democrats in any Illinois election in a very long time. This is a weird year, so nobody really knows who’s correct at the moment. Still, you need to keep the GOP’s strong objections very much in mind as we head into the final weeks of this campaign.
The other thing to remember is Quinn’s horrific job-approval rating. The average of the four polls that asked the job-approval question (CNN did not) was a 26 percent approval rating for Quinn, while 58.5 percent disapproved of his performance. He’s already vastly outperforming his approval rating, so it will be darned tough to push his own numbers up much higher unless people start feeling better about him soon.
Still, you simply cannot ignore five polls in a month showing Quinn within single digits of Brady. Whether the governor can pull this off is another story.
Why does this race suddenly look so close? For months, polls have shown it to be a blowout for Brady.
I now firmly believe this race has been much closer than I thought for weeks, if not months. The reason why I and others got this wrong is very bad polling.
Every poll published from the beginning of August to before last week had Brady leading Quinn by anywhere from 9 to 13 points.
Well, actually, one poll did show a close race. At the beginning of last month, the Chicago Tribune’s poll had Brady leading Quinn by only 5 points.
That Tribune poll was so different from the others that it essentially was ignored. But then last week, those other polls came out that showed a tighter race than widely assumed, and I noticed something curious. Pollsters who did not include millionaire independent candidate Scott Lee Cohen’s name in their polls showed a far wider gap between Brady and Quinn than those who did.
Last month’s Tribune poll included Cohen’s name in the mix, as well as the other candidates. The polls released last week that showed a tight race included his name as well.
The average of all five polls during the past month that included Cohen’s name is 38.6 percent for Brady and 35.8 percent for Quinn - a roughly 3-point split. The two-month average for polls taken that didn’t use Cohen’s name was 46.4 for Brady to 35.8 for Quinn - an almost 11-point race.
Notice that Quinn’s average is exactly the same in both sets of numbers. Brady’s is different. Why?
In a two-person race, when you attack an opponent, a portion of your opponent’s supporters eventually will cross over to your side. But in races where lots of people are running, when you attack your main opponent, then his or her supporters might end up with one of the other “minor” candidates.
If you drill down into the polls, it appears that significant numbers of women voters left Brady after Quinn’s early attacks and moved to Cohen. Now, I know that sounds absolutely insane, considering the domestic abuse allegations involving Cohen and his arrest for allegedly holding a knife to his girlfriend’s throat. But lots of people still don’t know who and what Cohen is. And the news media has all but stopped reminding them.
Some top Republicans have been increasingly jittery that Cohen might be making this thing a little too close for jubilation. They appear to have been right.
Finally, maybe Mayor Daley’s retirement from public office did not suck all the oxygen out of the state-wide races - as many pundits predicted. It was thought that the free-for-all for the Chicago Mayor’s Office would shift all attention and resources to that election. But, it may have merely caused Chicagoans to focus more on politics in general.
The last theory is purely speculative. But, the way things looked for him a few weeks ago, Pat Quinn needed any help he could get. With one month to go, the Illinois governor’s race may be less about change and more about whether Illinois’ typical Democrat/liberal base goes to the polls.
That’s certainly part of it. The oxygen was surely sucked out of the coverage, but maybe not out of the interest.
Thoughts?
* Related…
* Brady discounts polls that show Quinn gaining ground: “We don’t really believe it’s tightening,” Brady told reporters at a tea party event in front of the Statehouse. “Our internal data … shows that our momentum is growing every day. Our internal polls continue to show a strong, growing support for us.
* Brady rallies local support: “I have a problem with red light cameras being used too extensively,” he said.
* Northwest Herald: Governor: Bill Brady: For small-business owners, the backbone of our local communities, Brady proposes a five-year moratorium on federal payroll taxes and the creation of a Main Street Small Business Advisory Board to help the owners of small and fledgling businesses get off the ground and grow.
* Civil unions, concealed carry could confront next governor: “Bill believes marriage is the union of one man and one woman,” said Brady campaign spokeswoman Patty Schuh. “Our current laws reflect that.”
* Journal-Standard: Candidates need to step up: The report complains that 32 percent of the state inspection reports reviewed by the federal EPA were not detailed enough to determine if a confined-animal operation was complying with environmental laws; that state enforcement actions were rarely taken, and in more than 60 percent of the cases reviewed by the feds the state failed to get compliance even after violations were found. The report contends that the Illinois EPA is slow to respond to citizen complaints or take formal action against big feedlots and dairies that violate federal and state environmental laws.
* Tax policies display sharp differences for Quinn, Brady: While Brady is currently proposing elimination of the estate tax, “we don’t know what the feds are going to do,” Schuh said. “If they set it for estates over $10 million, maybe we’d take a look at it.”
Weis said there were 343 murders committed from January through September, eight fewer than last year at this time. The drop puts the city on pace with 2007, a year in which the murder total was the lowest in the city since 1965, Weis said.
Overall crime in the city dropped 4.5 percent, he said. In nearly every category, crime was down, and for the 21st straight month, crime dropped overall and in violent and property offenses.
Violent crime fell more than 11 percent in September.
Murder declined by 2.3 percent after a slight increase in August, police said, adding that the department is on pace with 2007, a year that ended with the lowest murder total in the city since 1965.
Also in September, police said they seized 130 firearms.
Violent crime overall was down more than 11 percent. Aggravated batteries alone declined 7.7. percent, which was the single greatest decrease in this category in 2010. Robberies and aggravated assaults each showed double-digit declines, and criminal sexual assaults were down just over 9 percent, police said.
The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers plans to add a new classification of workers who will not be required to complete the union’s standard training program and, as a result, will receive less pay than many card-holding electricians.
ComEd says it is still weighing whether to appeal to the state Supreme Court after an appellate court Friday struck down the utility’s plans for a $396 million rate increase to support major infrastructure improvements.
