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Hare runs a better ad, but Schilling and the Repubs are pouring it on

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I was pretty tough on Democratic Congressman Phil Hare’s latest TV ad yesterday. He had it coming. But Hare now has a new ad up that whacks Schilling for not paying taxes while alleging that Schilling wants to raise payroll taxes. Rate it


The payroll taxes hit comes from a Chicago Tribune questionnaire that Schilling’s son says he filled out and “misphrased”

…Schilling responded to a question about the solvency of Medicare and Social Security by saying, “I believe that there will need to be an increase in Medicare and Social Security withholding taxes.”

The “not paying taxes” hit is about Schilling twice not paying his annual business franchise tax to the Secretary of State. Schilling’s corporation was officially dissolved both times. Click here for the documentation. This is a pretty minor offense, but Debbie Halvorson was hit with the same thing two years ago by Republican Marty Ozinga.

* Hare is going to need a solid hit because the National Republican Congressional Committee is about to dump about a million dollars into his race

POLITICO has learned that the National Republican Congressional Committee will take a bank loan of at least $6.5 million – but likely more—to expand its ad buys into seven additional districts beyond the 55 where the committee has already reserved time.

According to an NRCC source familiar with the effort, the newly-added targets include five Democrats whose districts until recently were thought to be out of reach this year: Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz, Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop, Illinois Rep. Phil Hare, and Ohio Rep. Zack Space, and Colorado Rep. John Salazar.

* And Schilling had a pretty darned good quarter

3rd Quarter Total Raised: $375,262

Cash On Hand: $420,962

Total Raised To Date: $675,899

A recent poll by Public Opinion Strategies of 400 likely voters, conducted on September 26 and 27, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent shows Schilling and Hare tied at 37-38 percent. Schilling leads Hare by 18 points among voters who have heard of both candidates, and by 29 points among voters who have an opinion of both candidates. Pollster Glen Bolger said of this poll “Incumbent Phil Hare has real problems with the electorate in this district. Voters are upset at the direction of the country. Hare’s image is underwhelming. Incumbents at 38% on the ballot test don’t win unless they are successful at burning down their opponent.”

* All that cash is funding a brand new Schilling TV ad


* Hare hasn’t released his own fundraising totals yet, which sorta tells you something. But he is getting some help from the DCCC


* Related…

* Hare touts trade equalizer bill - Act targets China specifically for devaluing currency

* Congressman Says China Should Play Fair

* Video: Hare calls deficit, debt a “myth”

  25 Comments      


Rahm’s “data driven effort” vs. Meeks’ old fashioned “social networking”

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rahm Emanuel has been asking Twitter denizens to send him questions, comments, etc. via the #TellItLikeItIs hashtag. It’s apparently part of his “listening tour.” He’s calling the Tweets and responses a “data driven effort” to find out what’s on everybody’s minds. OK. Whatever.

I posed this question

So, how about telling us who you’re supporting for county assessor? That might tell us a lot.

Our longtime commenter and blogger’s blogger OneMan followed up

I too am curious who you are supporting in the assessors race..

No response. Actually, there aren’t many real responses. Nobody’s asking many serious questions. So if you have a Twitter account, click here, if you dare, and pose a question to Rahm using the #tellitlikeitis hashtag in your question. Maybe he’ll even answer. Report back if you sent him a question and if whoever is running that Twitter account actually talks back.

* Here’s a suggestion

A new report claims Chicago has the most dangerous neighborhood in America, although the neighborhood in question is not particularly infamous for crime.

The report by geographer Dr. Andrew Schiller for the commercial real estate site NeighborhoodScout.com said a neighborhood identified as “W. Lake St.,” located on the Near West Side and bounded by Kinzie Street on the north, Washington Boulevard on the south, Damen Avenue on the east and Western Avenue on the west, is the most dangerous neighborhood in the country.

The report claims that the chances of being a victim of a violent crime in the neighborhood are 1 in 4. It says the neighborhood sees 257.72 crimes per 1,000 residents.

But official police statistics seem to show a different story. The “neighborhood” named the most dangerous in the report corresponds directly to Census Tract 280500, which ranks toward the middle for crime among city neighborhoods.

So, the supposedly most dangerous neighborhood in the country isn’t even close to the most dangerous neighborhood in Chicago? Somebody’s “data driven effort” just failed.

* Meanwhile, Rev. Sen. James Meeks continues his own listening tour by actually sitting down and talking with real, live human beings

In a move sure to surprise many people, but one that also signals just how serious he is about running for mayor of Chicago, Ill. state Sen. James Meeks (D-Chicago) traveled to Boystown Oct. 5 to meet with several LGBT leaders at the offices of Equality Illinois. […]

“One of the things I was asked was if I would keep the office of the mayor’s liaison to the LGBT community and the Chicago Gay and Lesbian Hall of Fame,” Meeks said. “I was very surprised that people would think that I would do away with that office or the Hall. It’s very important to me and the city, and I would definitely keep that.”

Meeks also said he told the leaders that he would support efforts to lessen bullying against LGBT students in schools. Education has been an issue that Meeks has focused on as a legislator – he threatened to run against former Gov. Rod Blagojevich in 2006 over education funding and has pushed comprehensive legislation to revamp the state’s tax system in order to fully fund public schools.

I think I much prefer the old school social networking to the “data driven effort.”

* Rahmup…

* New mayoral poll puts Emanuel, Dart far ahead

* Emanuel gets temporary address near downtown: spokeswoman

* Emanuel gets a Chicago condo

* Rahm Addresses Residency Question

* Mayoral Hopefuls Remind Rahm He’s Not the Only One

* VIDEO: Welcome Back, Rahm

* Black community looks for mayor candidate

* Brown: After Daley, watch for power to shift

* Back home in Chicago for his mayoral bid, Rahm Emanuel was met by jeers from the supporters of his rivals

* Emanuel snags Ben LaBolt as communications director for mayoral campaign

* Water board member stakes out city clerk run

  25 Comments      


Rove, Kirk both hit Giannoulias on Bright Start

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Karl Rove’s American Crossroads GPS has posted its new anti Alexi Giannoulias ad. The group is spending a million dollars on the spot this week alone


I’m told Bright Start polls very well against Alexi Giannoulias. That Rove spot was a rough hit. Mark Kirk’s new ad focuses on the issue as well and may be an even a rougher hit


Script…

Mark Kirk: “I’m Mark Kirk and I approved this message.”

Nancy Wohlhart: “Our daughter was a freshman when we opened the envelope and found they had lost over half our college savings.”

AVO: “Alexi Giannoulias was in charge of Bright Start.”

Nancy Wohlhart: “Our money was supposed to be in a safe fund. But instead, Giannoulias stood by while they lost more than $70 million.”

AVO: “Giannoulias bragged about his financial expertise in commercials.”

Nancy Wohlhart: “A lot of people suffered because Alexi misled us. We’ll never recover our daughter’s college savings.”

* The DSCC has a new Internet promo video about the upcoming debates


* Speaking of debates

An upcoming debate between Illinois candidates for U.S. Senate has been canceled, as organizers say Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias has turned down a request to participate.

The debate, originally scheduled for Oct. 21 at the WSIU broadcasting studios in Carbondale and co-sponsored by The Southern Illinoisan, was meant to include senatorial candidates from all three of Illinois’ legally established political parties, but Giannoulias’ withdrawal caused organizers to cancel the event.

David Yepsen, of SIUC’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, said the Giannoulias campaign refused to participate in the debate because the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate, Michael Labno, was not allowed to join the discussion.

“It’s disappointing, but these things happen in politics,” Yepsen said. “The rules we put together were that we would invite any candidate of an established political party. We’re not going to change the rules for one candidate.”


Greg Hinz

I wonder if Team Giannoulias has forgotten a lesson that former Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun learned the hard way the year she lost her re-election bid: Downstate still counts, and Downstaters don’t like to be ignored.

True.

* Roundup…

* Campaign watchdogs want IRS to probe Rove’s American Crossroads

* Karl Rove-Backed Group Spends as Much as Political Parties

* US Chamber of Commerce under fire for foreign cash

* ZORN: Giannoulias consistently vague about his job at the bank

* VIDEO: Alexi Giannoulias Can’t Name Spending He Would Have Voted Against

* The Race for Obama’s Senate Seat

* Kirk characterizes self as ‘consensus builder’

* GOP candidate Kirk says he can build consensus in U.S. Senate

* Northwest Herald: U.S. Senate: Mark Kirk

* Giannoulias Offers Dinner With the President

* VIDEO: Mark Kirk on why he is running for US Senate

  42 Comments      


Plummer still hasn’t come up with a decent excuse

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Carol Marin takes off after GOP lt. governor nominee Jason Plummer for his new answer to a question he’s been dodging for months: His refusal to release tax returns, as every gubernatorial and (almost every) lt. gubernatorial candidate for decades has done

“I’m coming from the private sector,” answered Plummer. “I didn’t serve in the public sector last year.”

I fully agree with Carol’s next line: “Huh?”

Marin continues…

But even former Gov. George Ryan, now in prison, and Rod Blagojevich, who’s heading there, disclosed their income taxes.

And as Sun-Times Springfield Bureau Chief Dave McKinney pointed out to Plummer, Blagojevich’s tax forms provided the public with the first clue that convicted influence peddler Tony Rezko was paying Patti Blagojevich.

That was an excellent point by McKinney. It blows away Plummer’s argument that all we need to know is in his Statement of Economic Interests report filed with the state. And that argument doesn’t hold much water, either…

“That’s the most incomprehensible, terrible, convoluted form known to man,” scoffed Dennis Czurylo, a former supervisor for the IRS Criminal Investigation Division who has put many a politician in jail. “Government purposely uses these obscure and useless forms,” he said, because they “don’t disclose what a federal tax form does,” things like debt and land trusts.

And here’s another new argument that I haven’t seen before…

Plummer didn’t mask his exasperation, telling the Sun-Times, “When we’re elected on Nov. 2, I’ll be more than happy to use . . . your interest in my tax return as leverage to force a lot of folks in Springfield to show their tax returns.”

Watch it all here.

Sheila Simon responds

“It’s not too much to expect from a candidate for statewide office [that] their priority would be statewide office and representing the people of Illinois rather than protecting their family’s business interest,” said Simon, whose late father, U.S. Sen. Paul Simon, would divulge tax records that showed how much income she made as a teen-age babysitter and how much her adolescent brother made from his paper route.

“It says his priorities are different than mine and the governor,” Simon said of Plummer. “We’ve disclosed this without being asked and disclosed it fully.”

* Down-ballot roundup…

* Tribune: For the Supreme Court

* Tribune: For the appellate court

* Strong contrast in Illinois lieutenant governor candidates

* Eaton: More Republicans should follow Topinka’s lead into black communities

* Jesse White backing Kelly for treasurer

* Tribune: For the Cook Board

* VIDEO: Roger Keats in Humboldt Park

* Write-in candidate for Illinois governor seeks to be heard by voters

  51 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From today’s Sun-Times

GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bill Brady said Tuesday he would not stand in the way of a public school board should it want to teach creationism.

“I believe knowledge is power, and I believe local school districts should establish the curriculum when it comes to those things,” Brady told the Chicago Sun-Times editorial board in a wide-ranging interview session with running mate Jason Plummer.

This is not really new news. He’s said it before. You can watch the entire Sun-Times editorial board endorsement session if you’d like



* Question: Do you agree with Brady that it ought to be OK with the state if a local school district decides not to teach evolution and substitutes it with creationism? Explain.

* Bonus Question: Do you think this will make much difference in the campaign? Explain.

If you’re going to answer the bonus question, please make sure to answer the actual question, first. Thanks.

  97 Comments      


A good idea, but it’s probably for the long term

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* John Kass writes again today about a forensic audit. He’s talking about Chicago, but the idea is part of Bill Brady’s gubernatorial campaign platform as well. Brady uses the proposal to deflect questions about his budget details, saying he needs to see the results of such an intense audit before he can make any decisions.

Now, I am not opposed to the idea at all, but here’s the thing: A normal Auditor General agency audit takes months to complete. A complicated and detailed forensic audit of the entire state government all at once might take years. Whatever the case, there’s just no way I can figure that Brady could launch a complete forensic audit after he’s inaugurated in January and get the results back before introducing a new state budget in March or April, or even May or June.

* Gov. Christie said yesterday that Brady was doing the right thing by not talking in any detail about his budget plans

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a rising star in the Republican Party, says state Sen. Bill Brady should not offer too many details about how he would cut Illinois’ $13 billion budget deficit if Brady is elected governor.

Christie, who endorsed fellow Republican Brady at Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport Tuesday, said Brady shouldn’t worry about criticism that his budget plan lacks specifics.

“I heard the same things … a year ago right now,” Christie told reporters. “What I said was, ‘I am laying out for the people of New Jersey the direction that I’m going take the state. And I’m not going to sit here now and talk about each and every specific cut and how it all adds up as if I’m a CPA.’

“Candidly, I’m really happy I didn’t. Because the problem I found in New Jersey was much worse than my predecessor advertised, and anything I would have said would have had to have been thrown right in the garbage in January 2010.”

Video


* The good news? Illinois sold a lot of bonds overseas. The bad news? We’re paying a higher interest rate than Mexico and Portugal

Illinois capital-markets director John Sinsheimer and Citigroup Inc. bankers took a globe-girdling trip from the U.K. to China in June to persuade investors that the state’s $900 million of Build America Bonds were a bargain.

The seven-country visit worked. The state sold one-fifth of the federally subsidized securities abroad the next month, tapping investors who are the fastest-growing source of borrowed cash for U.S. municipalities. Illinois, with the lowest credit rating of any state from Moody’s Investors Service, dangled yields higher than Mexico, which defaulted on debt in 1982, and Portugal, which costs more to insure against missed payments.

* More bad news

To retire the fiscal 2010 bills by the end of the year, [Comptroller Dan Hynes] warned that the state must complete its up to $1.75 billion tobacco bond sale because the budget relies on at least $1.2 billion from the deal. Illinois recently named a finance team for the transaction. The state also must make additional interfund transfers and collect additional revenue from a tax amnesty program.

“A significant failure of any of these sources will place remaining fiscal year 2010 obligations in jeopardy,” Hynes warned. “This would create a scenario in which unsatisfied payees could be forced to seek legal and judicial remedies to obtain payments in amounts unprecedented in the state’s history.”

The comptroller said barring any major changes, the state’s liquidity crisis will continue through the fiscal year and Illinois could end the year with an even larger bill backlog of $8 billion as additional debt service comes due. That number could rise if no action is taken to address a $3.7 billion pension payment. […]

However, Hynes warned: “The structural imbalance in the current budget, combined with higher debt service costs and the loss of federal stimulus revenues, creates the very real possibility that the governor and General Assembly will face a working deficit of $15 billion or more when the fiscal year 2012 budget is crafted early next year.”

Oof.

But, hey, I suppose if Bill Brady is elected we could just sell $50 billion in pension bonds

Republican governor candidate Bill Brady has been blasting Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn for taxing, spending and borrowing, but Tuesday the challenger refused to rule out borrowing a record $50 billion to shore up state finances.

“All options have to be considered,” Brady said.

Yeah. That’ll be no problem, considering the inflated interest rate, the ever-worsening deficit and still-horrible revenues.

Nobody is gonna buy that many bonds from this state without a definable revenue stream. Brady has said he’d pay them off with “natural revenue growth.” As I pointed out yesterday, there is no revenue growth.

* Meanwhile

Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration has finalized a deal with the state’s largest employee union that will prevent layoffs until 2012 despite repeated calls from Republican challenger Bill Brady for Quinn to abandon the plan.

The agreement between the state and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees was finalized on Sep. 24, and was signed by union director Henry Bayer and James Sledge, head of Illinois Central Management Services.

Under the deal, the state cannot layoff workers or close facilities until July 2012. In exchange the union says it has agreed to cut costs by at least $170 million by cutting healthcare costs, restricting overtime and other yet-to-be-identified measures. Quinn’s office hopes ongoing negotiations will push savings higher.

Too often, this governor walks right into the punches.

* And kudos to the AP for attending one of Scott Lee Cohen’s much-hyped job fairs

Martina Love had two words to describe the job fair hosted Tuesday by Scott Lee Cohen, the independent candidate for Illinois governor: “false advertisement.”

Out of work for a year, the 23-year-old said she’s looking for a “real job” at a factory or somewhere else, not selling jewelry or enlisting in the military like recruiters at Cohen’s Rockford-area job fair were offering.

“If he’s supposed to be a governor, I would think that he would have had more things in here knowing how the economy is,” said Love, who used to work at phone customer service company.

The job fairs are a cornerstone of Cohen’s campaign for governor, but the job seekers who lined up Tuesday to talk to more than a dozen companies weren’t necessarily interested in helping him gain employment as Illinois’s chief executive.

Go read the whole thing.

* Related…

* Unemployment And The Output Gap

* New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie Endorses Bill Brady

* New Jersey governor stumps for Brady

  28 Comments      


Brady to launch three new TV ads

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bill Brady has three new TV ads that will begin running this evening. The first one is a tough hit on Pat Quinn’s early release program. Rate it


* This is a related, 15-second spot featuring Brady speaking to the camera about protecting personal safety


* And the third is another ad featuring Brady’s daughter Katie


  47 Comments      


Poll: Kinzinger crushing Halvorson 49-31

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told subscribers this morning, The Hill has a new poll showing the 11th Congressional District race isn’t even close. Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson is getting blown out by Republican Adam Kinzinger

Right now, the outlook for Halvorson appears grim. The Hill/ANGA poll found she trails Kinzinger by 18 points — 49 percent to 31. Another 18 percent of likely voters remain undecided.

Kinzinger also leads among most major demographic groups. He’s ahead by 26 points among male voters and by 11 percent among females, and leads in all age groups by 10 points or more. Kinzinger also holds a wide lead with independent voters — 53 percent to 24.

Click here to see the results. They ain’t pretty at all.. A few more questions from the poll…

* And we have a TV ad. Dan Seals


* And Seals’ Republican opponent Bob Dold has an Internet promo video claiming that Dold is pro-choice no matter what anyone else says


* Roundup…

* Candidates in 11th Dist. congressional race clash

* Southwest suburban congressional candidates clash on bailout, tax cuts

* Sun-Times: Foster for 14th District

* Randy Hultgren Speaks in Dixon, IL

* Manzullo defends NAFTA support

* Congressman Phil Hare Talks About Election

  32 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Huberman to leave as CPS boss before May

All this threatens to occur over a critical set of months, when CPS traditionally devises its budget, prepares for state tests and decides which schools to close. It must tackle the tasks with an administrative staff decimated by budget cuts, teachers left disgruntled by cost-saving layoffs and the specter of even worse budget woes next school year.

* Chicago Public Schools CEO Ron Huberman Not Leaving Post Soon

He said he would likely stay through January, when a new school year begins for some CPS students. He said any time there is a transition in leadership, there is some consideration of who else will leave, but speculation he will leave soon is untrue.

* Schools chief Huberman denies report of early departure

* Huberman on CPS post: ‘Nothing imminent’

* Chicago Public Schools Chief ‘Nervous’ About Safety at Whittier

* CPS: Rehiring Tenured Teachers Could Cost Millions

* Chicago Public Schools Plan to Appeal Ruling on Layoffs

* Daley touts $34 million to raise pay for best teachers

* After blaming ‘the process,’ Stroger fires arrested aide

* Mayor Daley moves to fix a part of city’s water-billing mess

* Cook Board rejects full sales-tax rollback

Calling threats of a $300 million deficit in the upcoming 2011 budget a “fallacy and “scare tactics, Riverside Republican Commissioner Tony Peraica called for the full rollback Tuesday of the sales tax, which the county board reduced by half this summer.

* One Chicago Neighborhood Named Most Dangerous in the Country

A real estate advising company says a neighborhood bordered by Damen and Western Avenues on the east and west and Kinzie Street and Washington Boulevard to the north and south has the highest predicted rates of violent crime in the nation.

* America’s 25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods

* Medicare drug costs up 10%

* CTA might rename stop for Mayor Washington

* Mount Prospect issues 35 layoff notices

* U-46 taps analyst for finance post

* Kaneland school board names trustee

* Kane prosecutor to leave for Kendall

* Naperville OKs plan to buy DuPage Children’s Museum building

* U. of I. faculty members, students may ask trustees to reconsider William Ayers

* Carbondale City Councilman Lance Jack resigns, wins liquor license

  4 Comments      


For the hacks

Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Many of you who read this blog run the campaigns, walk the precincts, make the calls, coordinate the schedules, dig the dirt or dish it, deal with goofy candidates, or are a candidate yourself. I’d like to take this opportunity to say my hat is off to you.

The election is less than four weeks away, but you’re certainly weary from the never-ending days and nights. You’ve no doubt been busting your hump for weeks or months on end. Living on coffee, cigarettes, cold pizza and warm beer. Your candidate may be behind, or maybe you’re in a close race and fighting for what feels like your very life.

For the hacks in the streets, it’s starting to get chilly outside. Soon, it’ll be downright cold, which will be murder on your frozen knuckles (Hint: Kick the door, don’t knock, it’ll save those knuckles). You’ve probably been chased by a dog at least once by now. You may even have been bitten (try to remember to carry dog biscuits in your coat pocket). Some idiot has undoubtedly pulled up half the yard signs you placed the last time you were there. Stay calm. They can make more signs.

You may be losing your patience and your voice, but you can smell something familiar in the air: “The end.” People are finally paying attention and you’ve been feeling that ol’ adrenaline rush. You’re gonna need it. It’s the only thing that’ll keep you going through the miserable days ahead.

No matter. You press on. You may not even like your candidate, but it’s always ever onward. Sometimes - maybe more often than you might care to admit - you don’t even know why you’re pushing yourself so freaking hard. Campaigns are never easy, always unpredictable, maddeningly emotional, completely exhausting. Worse yet, nobody on the outside really understands your choice. Some even disrespect you for it. But it’s what you do, and, God help you, you love it.

You live a zero-sum life. You win or go home. There’s no silver medal. And the rewards aren’t all that great unless you are one of the chosen few. For everyone else, it’s just more work. Always, more work. But that rush you get when you win beats the heck out of trading in your way of life for some mundane sideline existence. You can’t just be someone who wouldn’t bother to invest their own sweat in this insanely bizarre American process.

So, whoever you are and whichever campaign you’re working for or with, this video is for you


Now, go out there and kick some butt. :)

[Hat tip to a commenter.]

  57 Comments      


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Wednesday, Oct 6, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Brady cuts short news conference amid budget questions - And Edgar “explains” his Brady endorsement

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It appears that things didn’t go so well for Bill Brady at a Chicago press conference with New Jersey’s Gov. Christie

Brady cut short his news conference amid questions about his plans for Illinois’ $13 billion deficit.

Chicago reporters asking about the deficit? Will wonders never cease? They even got in a good one about Christie…

[Brady] also had nothing to say about Christie skipping a $3 billion pension payment. Illinois has skipped payments, too, and Brady called it irresponsible.

It’s amazing what a few polls showing a tight race can do.

*** UPDATE *** It wasn’t pretty, apparently. Tribune

Republican governor candidate Bill Brady has been blasting Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn for taxing, spending and borrowing, but today Brady refused to rule out borrowing a record $50 billion to shore up state finances.

“All options have to be considered,” Brady said.

Brady’s willingness to consider massive borrowing for the state employee pension systems came in response to questions at a downtown news conference where the candidate sought in vain to focus on his endorsementy by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a darling of Republicans and conservatives.

This is what Brady said during the primary campaign about his $50 billion pension bond idea

He’d fill much of the existing $80-billion hole in the state’s pension plans by borrowing. The borrowing would be repaid by allotting much of the natural growth in state revenues to pension debt service, he says.

Um, there is no revenue growth, natural or otherwise.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Jim Edgar explains his endorsement of Bill Brady

“We’ve had…18 months of Gov. Quinn and I just don’t think managing is necessarily his suit. I think he means well, but I just don’t think that’s what he’s cut out to do,” Edgar said Wednesday, following a lecture at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “Whereas Bill Brady we don’t know for sure, he hasn’t been governor. He has some business experience. I’m willing to take a chance there, too.”

He’s right about Quinn. But, as our prolific and indispensable commenter “Wordslinger” noted earlier today

Bill Brady is a relatively common name, which may explain the contradictory Bill Brady budget and economic comments out there.

–Bill Brady I was in the GA 17 years and voted on budgets, presumably with some idea of what’s in them.

–Bill Brady II has no idea what’s in the state budget, how it is being spent, who is owed money and how much, and will need a “forensic audit” to sort it all out.

– Bill Brady III is confident enough in the information he has to state that he can cut taxes and close the deficit in one year.

– Bill Brady IV is against more borrowing.

– Bill Brady V wants to float a $50 billion pension obligation bond.

– Bill Brady VI is a businessman who knows how to “grow” jobs in a lousy economy.

– Bill Brady VII is a businessman who shed jobs in a lousy economy.

I’m sure there will be more and different Bill Brady sightings in the coming weeks.

Me too.

  69 Comments      


Playing rough

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We’ve all seen the ads and the press releases from both sides of the US Senate race.

“He’s a mob banker!” “He’s a liar!” “He didn’t pay taxes!” “He’s a liar!” Etc., etc.

Well, Rick Pearson of the Tribune finally had enough of it and during yesterday’s editorial board debate he decided to see if Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk were man enough to say this stuff to each others’ faces. The results were fairly predictable


Pearson is now officially a hero of this campaign. Full debate audio here.

But all that talk about “issues” and such didn’t last. Here’s the latest missive from the National Republican Senatorial Committee…

Good morning –

In case you missed it, mob banker Alexi Giannoulias was unable to name a single federal spending measure that he would have voted against during a recent meeting with the Chicago Tribune.

* The Illinois Republican Party really roughed up the Constitution Party. After weeks and weeks of turmoil, an appellate panel has denied the party a ballot spot

The appellate judges dismissed the party’s claim that it turned in the required 25,000 signatures of registered voters. At issue: 82 signatures, which were thrown out, that could’ve swung the decision the other way. The judges ruled those signatures were no good because they were collected by someone who also collected signatures for another party in the primary.

The Constitution Party lawyer says, “Obviously [this was] not the final result we were looking for.” He says he plans to ask the appellate court to reconsider.

* Joe Berrios has never been known as a pushover, and his campaign is not sitting still for the beating it’s taking from Chicago’s media, the Better Government Association and rival county assessor candidate Forrest Claypool.

Berrios has filed an IRS complaint alleging that the BGA is engaging in unlawful campaign activities on behalf of Claypool. Berrios’ campaign has pointed out that the Chicago Tribune ignored a story about pay raises granted by Claypool despite a county board wage freeze. He’s claimed that Claypool actually will increase property taxes.

And now Berrios is going after Claypool’s campaign contributors.

Berrios more than just implies that several of Claypool’s major contributors donated cash after Berrios’ Board of Appeals denied their requests for property tax cuts. The site is called Victims of Joe Berrios.com. One example…

In 2009, Richard Driehaus appealed to Joe Berrios for a tax break on his $2,229,980 mansion.

Joe Berrios said no!

So Richard gave $150,000 to Forrest Claypool’s campaign for Cook County Assessor.

Another victim of Joe Berrios, vindicated!

Yikes. The site features photos of many of the properties. It also includes this explanation…

All of these wealthy Chicagoans filed appeals to get tax breaks with the Board of Review, only to be denied.

Their properties include mansions, condos and parking spaces - at places such as Water Tower Place and along the Gold Coast.

When these affluent folks didn’t catch a break, they turned to someone who could help them in the future: former Democrat Forrest Claypool.

How did they help? By giving him more than $500,000 in just six months’ time so that he could run for the job of Cook County assessor, a role that would allow him to give them breaks before they even have to appeal to the Board of Review.

The public deserves to know that the best candidate for the job is the person who doesn’t take money from millionaires and billionaires hoping to shirk their fair share of property taxes. That person is Joe Berrios.

Chutzpah. But I’ll bet Berrios would say that to Claypool’s face.

…Adding… Oh, man, I didn’t even see this one…

In 2007, Jan Schakowsky appealed to Joe Berrios for a tax break on her $726,450 love nest.

Joe Berrios said no!

So Jan gave her coveted endorsement to Forrest Claypool’s campaign for Cook County Assessor. [Emphasis added]

Ouch.

* In other hardball news, Planned Parenthood is trying to get the word out about what conservative Bill Brady could do if elected governor. From a press release…

After eliminating all family planning funding and negatively impacting 40,000 patients in his state, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie today stumps for Bill Brady in campaigning efforts across Illinois. Now the women of Illinois want to know, will Bill Brady cut family planning funding in Illinois just like NJ Governor Christie? […]

Christie’s first action as governor was to end all state family planning funding and stop New Jersey from implementing a Medicaid family planning program similar to the Illinois Healthy Women family planning program. As a result, an estimated 40,000 patients will lose access to this critical health care service in New Jersey. With the Governor’s action, Planned Parenthood of Southern New Jersey recently closed a health center and 57 additional health care providers will be impacted.

“Health professionals who provide family planning are often the only source of health care services for women and families who have no health insurance coverage,” said Pam Sutherland of PPIA. “Christie is trying to push through his opposition to family planning under the cover of cost cutting. But women and the state are eventually bound to pay the cost.”

Just because it’s appropriated, doesn’t mean it has to be spent.

* The Sun-Times endorsed Dan Seals this week and had some unkind words for his GOP opponent Robert Dold

Ultimately, though, Dold seems to fall back on the usual Republican talking points, some utterly baseless. He is pushing the latest GOP line, for example, that the nation’s slow progress in creating new jobs is the fault of an unpredictable business climate created by Obama administration policies.

As if the great recession never happened.

* Roundup…

* Quinn, officials fight unlimited spending: Elected officials from five states are forming a coalition aimed at fighting unlimited campaign spending by corporations and independent groups. The group is known as CAPS. That stands for Coalition for Accountability in Political Spending.

* Biggert deserves re-election to House: Reviewing the voting record of the last year, you’d be hard-pressed to find a bipartisan Republican in Congress. Such are the politically polarized times we live in.

* Bean right for her district: Melissa Bean is a different kind of Democrat by Illinois standards, more opposed to taxes, more a defender of big banks and more fiscally conservative in general.

* Election 2010: A Close Look at the Illinois Recall Amendment

* Three Reasons for Hope and Three Reasons for Despair for Democrats

* Sierra Club Dispatching Campaign Workers to Help in 29 Pivotal Races

* DCCC Still Holding Funds for Late TV Push

* Giannoulias, Quinn let students know they’re for real

* Northwest Herald: Treasurer: Rutherford

* Northwest Herald: Comptroller: Topinka

* Eighth District Congressional race epitomizes reasons for voter angst

* Planned Parenthood criticizes Dold for abortion stance

* Have questions for 14th District candidates? Send them to us

* Quad-Cities’ Congressional Race Heats Up

  72 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Mary Mitchell writes today about Democratic treasurer candidate Robin Kelly’s serious fundraising problems and the lack of help from the Democratic Party of Illinois

I don’t get it. How is Kelly supposed to beat the streets firing up the Democratic base when the Democratic Party won’t so much as fill up her gas tank?

Steve Brown, the spokesman for House Speaker Michael Madigan, who is chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, could not tell me if the party raised a penny to help Kelly’s campaign.

“The party is doing for her what they have done for other candidates,” Brown told me, without giving any specifics.

“We are working with the Illinois Coordinated Campaign being run by [U.S. Sen.] Dick Durbin. They are raising money,” he said.

Dave Seman of the Illinois Democratic Coordinated Campaign said,”We do not hand out cash to any campaign. We provide a pooling of infrastructure . . . to benefit all campaigns.”

“I didn’t expect help, and I’m not letting it stop me,” Kelly told me.

* The Question: Should the Democratic Party of Illinois provide significant funds to down-ballot statewide candidates like Kelly and David Miller? Explain.

  59 Comments      


Nope. Not gonna do it

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rasmussen Reports has a new poll out for the US Senate race. But once again, Raz did not include all candidate names in a poll. Feel free to look at it. But from now on, I will not be posting any polls that do not include all candidate names.

I have my reasons.

…Adding… I’ve sent Rasmussen a link to this post. So, hopefully, they’ll start flying right.

  Comments Off      


Do you believe in magic?

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Longterm? Yes. Short-term? No

While Gov. Pat Quinn has accused his opponent of telling voters fairy tales about balancing the budget, he provided only a hazy picture Monday of how he would close the $13 billion deficit and then move Illinois forward.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Quinn said he would solve the state’s budget crisis by spending more on education. He hopes “investing in people” will help the Illinois economy grow and fill the budget hole when coupled with unspecified spending cuts and the possibility of more federal aid.

The governor is apparently still hoping for lots of magical federal faerie dust, which will duly be sprinkled throughout the land. Huzzahs for faerie dust! Huzzah!


* That faerie dust will sure come in handy to pay off the state’s backlog of bills, which is now $6.4 billion. But Quinn better find some soon, because he’s promised to pay all those bills off by the end of December

Governor Pat Quinn “is committed to paying all” bills from 2010, which ended in June, by the end of this year, said Kelly Kraft, a spokeswoman. Quinn, a Democrat, is working to reduce the deficit and will need the help of the Legislature, she said.

The Legislature? We don’t need no stinking Legislature when we have faeries! Seriously. Magic is so much more fun


* Anyway, back to the budget, which sucks, of course. The Commission on Goverment Forecasting and Accountability’s September report is out. Not good

Excluding short-term borrowing, base general funds revenues are up $266 million through September. However, absent $263 million from first quarter As shown on page 7, through the first quarter of FY 2011, overall base revenues are up $266 million. When the falloff in federal sources is excluded, the gain increases to $397 million. However, as mentioned earlier, much of the year to date increase is attributed to interfund borrowing, which throughout the first quarter totaled $263 million. Absent that action, receipts through the first three months of the fiscal year have been expectedly lackluster.

“Expectedly lackluster.” Great. But, wait a moment. According to this video, faeries are real


So, maybe all hope is not lost. Yes, indeedy. All we have to do is just find out where they taped that faerie, go catch it and immediately hand it over to the Office of Management and Budget. Problem solved.

* Come to think of it, maybe Bill Brady already caught that faerie

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady told supporters in Galesburg Monday that if elected he would cut taxes and close the state’s deficit in his first year in office. […]

Asked if that was a realistic statement, Brady responded, “absolutely.”

In his first year, he says? Huzzahs!!! Huzzahs!!! We are saved!!! All hail Bill Brady, the new King of the faeries….


* And let us all pray for a long and healthy life for our new king

Plummer said his experience in hiring and managing people at the family lumber business has prepared him to run Illinois, the country’s fifth-largest economy. Business is “a background where you have to perform or you don’t make it,” he said.

Fear not. The young Plummer is guided by the lumber faerie, the fairest faerie of them all


Feel better? I sure do.

…Adding… The tax amnesty faerie is not being kind

A tax amnesty program designed to bring an influx of cash into the state’s floundering bank account could bring in less revenue than advertised.

In a report issued Monday, Comptroller Dan Hynes said the possible shortfall could further jeopardize the state’s already shaky ability to pay down its old bills by the end of this calendar year.

“This would create a scenario in which unsatisfied payees could be forced to seek legal and judicial remedies to obtain payments in amounts unprecedented in the state’s history,” he noted.

Curiously enough, there are no videos for “tax amnesty faerie” on YouTube.

  23 Comments      


Cohen: “Character counts”

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Scott Lee Cohen recently appeared on “Public Affairs” with host Jeff Berkowitz. The host did a pretty good job of letting Cohen talk about his programs, but then methodically zeroed in on his, um, “issues.”

Cohen stumbled a few times when talking about his budget plans. And he refused at first to answer a question about his net worth, eventually saying it is between $6 and $7 million. He claimed he’s put $3-4 million into the campaign since the primary. That’s not exactly evident. He says he’s about half-way to his degree at DePaul and wants to eventually obtain a law degree.

Cohen called last week’s Chicago Tribune editorial board “debate” a “witch hunt, not an endorsement session” because of the pointed questions they asked him. He said that Bill Brady and Pat Quinn spent their time at the meeting “making asses of themselves.” Cohen also said of Tribune columnist Eric Zorn, “He’s pretty ignorant.” Zorn claimed Cohen quickly “folded” under pressure and bowed out of the lt. governor’s race.

“Character does count,” Cohen said when pushed by Berkowitz. “Look at half the legislators out there, they’ve been arrested for different things,” Cohen claimed, adding that unnamed people had been “convicted” of armed robbery and are still in politics. He said his own arrest for allegedly knifing his alleged prostitute girlfriend was “nonsense.” He also claimed that he pays child support. His ex-wife had taken him to court over the issue.

Anyway, have a look


* Meanwhile, Cohen plans to unveil a new jobs plan tomorrow morning at the Odyssey Yacht at Navy Pier. A press release claims “upwards of one hundred veterans and others” will be there as well. From that press release…

According to Cohen, “The All Hands on Deck” program will focus on those who have suffered chronic unemployment, like veterans, the disabled, teenagers, tech workers and ex-offenders.”

“This is a significant economic recovery plan for the state of Illinois,” says Swilley. “It is capturing the attention of social service agencies, unions, and businesses large and small.”

“As far as I’m concerned”, says Cohen, “The All Hands On Deck” plan, is the heart and soul of what our campaign is all about. It’s a down payment on a big investment in the people of Illinois.”

* So far, nobody has asked Bill Brady about the solid evidence that Cohen is hurting his candidacy. Any ideas how Brady can deal with this?

  24 Comments      


Morning Videos: Hare stumbles, IEA uses Abe, Labor backs Quinn, Whitney talks issues

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If Congressman Phil Hare thinks this obtuse TV ad is a winner for him, he probably has another thing coming. Watch if you dare


“Bobby Schilling refuses to let Medicare negotiate volume discounts on prescriptions”? I understood what Hare was saying, but my eyes still glazed over. Seriously, that’s all he’s got?

* The Illinois Education Association uses Abe Lincoln to bash Bill Brady. Kinda funny, but a prime example of how the Interwebtubes has spawned a whole lot of amateurish campaign videos


* The Pat Quinn campaign has updated its labor union video to include the factoid that Jason Plummer’s family company is the “number 2 non-union homebuilder in the state of Illinois.” Brady’s company is the largest, according to the video. Watch it


* Green Party gubernatorial nominee Rich Whitney has posted his 5-minute ABC7 video. The station asks that the candidates stand or sit in front of a plain background and speak to the camera about issues. Here it is


* Other videos…

* BlueStream.com will offer live coverage of a press conference with Robin Kelly, State Treasurer Candidate at 11:00 am from the blue room in Springfield.

* Gov. Jim Edgar, Christopher Kennedy at ICIRR fundraiser

* Illinois Turnaround Tour: Get on Board - 3 Minute Condensed Version

* White Sox…Feet on the Street with Susana Mendoza

* Gov. Quinn Highlights Amtrak’s $40 Million Capital Investment in Chicago’s Union Station

  27 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Top Stroger aid Oglesby arrested, charged in probe

* Key Stroger aide arrested on corruption charges

* Stroger aide Oglesby arrested on corruption charges

Oglesby, who served as Stroger’s re-election campaign spokeswoman before joining his administration in the $120,000-a-year post after his defeat in the Democratic primary in February, had been under investigation over so-called 24-9 contracts, including one issued to her own CGC Communications public-relations firm.

The contracts are named for being just under the $25,000 threshold requiring approval by the Cook County Board. Oglesby issued one to CGC for $24,975 in the days immediately after her hiring.

* Quick sentencing for Fast Eddie Vrdolyak delay attempt fizzles

So Vrdolyak, 72, remains on track to be re-sentenced Oct. 15 for conspiring with politically connected businessman Stuart Levine to win a $1.5 million kickback off the sale of a Gold Coast property.

* Daley extends terms for City Colleges board pals

* ComEd rebates worth $48M could result from court ruling

The Sept. 30 decision determined that the Illinois Commerce Commission acted improperly when it permitted ComEd to raise rates based on anticipated future costs without giving ratepayers the benefit of the utility’s savings as it depreciated assets. That ruling could mean refunds for ComEd customers, the utility disclosed Monday.

The issue is arcane, but it accounts for a sizeable percentage of recent rate hikes by both ComEd and Peoples Gas.

* Future ComEd bills may be smaller

* Eisner says he’s not going to head Tribune Co.

* Tribune: For the Cook Board

* Roeper: Consultant was quicker on trigger than Rahm’s crew

* Sneed: Table talk Rahm ‘em . .

* Moseley-Braun embarks on listening tour

* Amtrak to invest $40M in Chicago’s Union Station

* Union Station on track for $40 million rehab

* More cops moving to mobile strike teams

* CPS turns off the heat on Pilsen protesters

* Cook County Board Considers Tax Ordinance

The Cook County Board of Commissioners may make it harder to pass new taxes or raise them in the future.

The board might consider an ordinance today requiring a three-fifths super-majority vote to pass any new tax.

* Cook County Board to Mull Campaign Finance Caps

The measure would, for the first time, cap the amount of campaign money county officials could get from donors: no more than $5,000 a year from an individual, or $10,000 from corporations or campaign committees.

* U-46 elementary schools see academic improvement

In the 2009-10 school year, 18 elementary schools made adequate yearly progress the minimum level required to be considered a successful school under state and federal No Child Left Behind standards. The other 22 elementary schools in the district, which also includes all or part of South Elgin, Bartlett, Streamwood and Hanover Park, did not meet state standards.

* D203 considers new director

* [St. Charles] Council won’t endorse St. Charles library referendum

* Waukegan council OKs crossing guard pay deal

* Naperville Plan Commission to vote on renewable energy ordinance

* U of I. fundraising campaign surpasses $2 bil.

* Our Opinion: UIS should abide by FOIA

* Research center to be named for Costello

* JackHammers to be sold, Joliet officials say

* Illinois Voter Registration Deadline (of sorts) on Tuesday

* Want to vote? Register today

* Southtown Star: Early or late, time to vote is approaching

* Early voting changes campaign dynamics

* Officials do double take over new election law

  8 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Oct 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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