PPP has had some pretty reliable numbers, but I’d like to see if they detect any further tightening in this race. Their last poll had Gov. Pat Quinn trailing Sen. Bill Brady by seven points, the highest margin of any legit poll out there. Brady had this to say earlier today…
Most polls showed Brady with a slim to moderate lead over Gov. Pat Quinn. Recently, some polls suggested the race may be tightening. Not so, Brady said.
“We don’t think they’re tightening, we think our momentum is continuing,” Brady said during a stop Friday morning at Granny’s Kitchen in Harrisburg
Brady also used the latest Rasmussen poll to buttress his case, but as I’ve told you several times before, Rasmussen isn’t polling all the names on the ballot. When Scott Lee Cohen is included in a poll, the margin definitely appears to shift in Quinn’s favor. So, using that poll as evidence is just bogus.
“Mark Kirk voted to reward corporations with tax breaks for shipping jobs overseas,” says the ad’s narrator. “Now the Chamber of Commerce is spending over $75 million to help Republicans like Mark Kirk get elected. And where has the Chamber been getting some of their money lately? From foreign corporations in countries like China, Russia, and India — the same companies that threaten American jobs. It’s time to connect the dots. Exactly who is Mark Kirk working for? Because it sure isn’t Illinois.”
…Adding… The Kirk campaign says it can find no evidence yet that the ad is actually running on TV stations or cable right now.
It’s certainly true that millions are being spent without public disclosure, and that much of the money is coming from corporations taking advantage of a Supreme Court ruling easing restrictions on political spending. But using foreign funds to finance political ads is still a legal violation. Accusing anybody of violating the law is a serious matter requiring serious evidence to back it up. So far Democrats have produced none.
* MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program took a look at the Kirk vs. Giannoulias debate last night. The NRSC posted the segment about the mob banker back and forth…
* Now, on to the dueling polls. From the DCCC today…
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today released a new Benenson Strategy Group poll that shows Representative Bill Foster leading Republican challenger Randy Hultgren by 10 percent.
In the initial head-to-head in the race for Illinois’ 14th congressional district, Foster leads Hultgren 48 percent to 38 percent. Conducted October 4-6, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
“After it was revealed Randy Hultgren’s business was profiting off of the bank bailouts in an offshore investment fund, voters learned Hultgren is nothing more than a slick Springfield politician who is only out for himself,” said Gabby Adler, Midwestern Regional Press Secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “This poll proves the last thing Illinois voters want in Washington is another Springfield politician like Randy Hultgren.”
Republican state Sen. Randy Hultgren led Rep. Bill Foster (D) by 6 points in a new poll taken for the Republican’s campaign. Foster won the seat in a March 2008 special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) retired.
The poll showed Hultgren with 44 percent of the vote and Foster with 38 percent. Sixteen percent of voters were undecided, and 4 percent chose Green Party nominee Daniel Kairis. The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, surveyed 400 likely voters Oct. 3-4, and the poll’s margin of error was 4.9 points. Neither the campaign nor the Tarrance Group released any other numbers from the poll.
The poll showed a slight improvement for Hultgren over similar polls conducted for the campaign in May and September.
Much has changed in the race in the past month. Foster went up on broadcast TV in late September in the expensive district directly west of Chicago, and the National Association of Realtors and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee are airing cable ads on his behalf. The Democrat’s campaign accused Hultgren’s investment firm of profiting off the federal bailout in an ad.
* More stuff and more videos…
* Quinn, Brady campaign as early voting starts today
* Politicians Stepping off with Columbus Day Parade
* President Barack Obama has cut a radio ad/robocall for Gov. Pat Quinn. Listen…
I’m told the radio spot will run in heavy rotation on black stations. The idea behind it is to push turnout. Transcript…
This is President Barack Obama calling on behalf of Pat Quinn. In all my experience, one lesson stands out: if you want change, you have to get involved. Today, across the country and here in Illinois our communities face serious threats. There’s a real push to force us back to the failed policies of the past. We can’t let them get away with it. We need to vote, and vote for Governor Pat Quinn.
I know Pat Quinn. Over the years, I’ve seen firsthand his courage to take on powerful interests, his character to do what’s right, and his commonsense that’s getting our state moving again. He’s fighting to create jobs, strengthen our schools, and protect our neighborhoods.
On Election Day, I’ve voting for my friend, Pat Quinn, and I hope you’ll join me. We can’t afford to stay home - because the best thing you can do for me in the White House is to vote to keep Pat Quinn Governor. Thank you.
* Related and a roundup…
* Quinn getting White House help with three weeks to go in governor’s race
* There wasn’t a whole lot of new news on Sunday’s Meet the Press debate between Congressman Mark Kirk and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. We’ve pretty much seen it all before. Others who haven’t been paying attention might not agree, however. Watch the whole thing if you want…
* Debate coverage roundup…
* Transcript of Alexi Giannoulias-Mark Kirk Debate on NBC’s ‘Meet the Press’
We know that reviving this moribund state is a challenge greater than any Brady, a Bloomington homebuilder and Republican, has surmounted. By the most important measure of the next few years, though, Brady is the candidate for the job: We believe he will say No to the power-clutching elites — House Speaker Michael Madigan, Senate President John Cullerton, that means you and your cronies — whose insider politics doomed this state to its own private tailspin.
Pat Quinn, by contrast, cannot say No to anyone, let alone the power brokers who bully him. He cannot enforce consequences. He can’t even deliver bad news.
Not one mention of Jason Plummer’s name.
* Gov. Pat Quinn was endorsed by the Illinois Federation of Teachers the other day and just reported receiving a $350,000 contribution from the union.
* Brady taking credit where it’s not due? Looks that way…
Did Sen. Bill Brady help “expose the scandal” that led to Rod Blagojevich’s political downfall and criminal indictment?
On Brady’s campaign website, the GOP gubernatorial nominee insists that was the case, but Gov. Quinn, Democrats and even a top legal scholar who has followed Blagojevich’s criminal trial closely say Brady is exaggerating his record when it comes to Illinois’ impeached ex-governor. […]
A Republican lawmaker who voted to impeach Blagojevich chuckled upon reading Brady’s characterization of his role in exposing the Blagojevich scandal.
“I thought the U.S. attorney and the FBI did that,” said the lawmaker, who didn’t want to be named because he supports Brady. “That’s a bit of a stretch.”.
Law professor Richard Kling, who sat in on the Blagojevich trial and teaches at Kent College of Law, similarly minimized Brady’s role. “I don’t remember a shred of paper generated that he was ever instrumental in anything having to do with the governor,” Kling said. “It’s bizarre these guys make these claims that they have no basis for.”
Struggling to build a firewall against a Republican takeover, congressional Democrats are pouring money into roughly two dozen tight races around the country in the campaign’s closing weeks while pulling it back from others where their chances seem slimmer. […]
Democrats said they were focusing on stopping the bleeding where possible, including trying to salvage the seats of several threatened lawmakers who earlier this year looked like safe re-election bets. They include Colorado Rep. John Salazar, Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop, Illinois Rep. Phil Hare, and Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly, and Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton of Missouri. […]
The party also is fighting to keep Democratic-held open seats in Arkansas, Washington and Wisconsin, and to claim two now held by the GOP in Illinois and in Miami, Fla.
* Bill Brady on Roeser’s Political Shootout Sunday night
* Hare, Schilling spar over tax bills: He also dismissed the Schilling campaign’s explanation that an accountant failed to file the paperwork. “When is Bobby Schilling going to be accountable for his own actions,” Schlittner said.
* Kirk comments secretly recorded, made public: “For him to insinuate that there is some vote fraud going on in these communities is just an insult to the hundreds and hundreds of people who serve as election judges on elections. I find it disgraceful and insulting,” said Ald. Freddrenna Lyle.
* Can Gov. Quinn manage establishment he built his career assailing?: “To Pat, delegating is like asking someone else to do your homework,” one former aide said. “It’s noble — like Gandhi cleaning the latrines. But Gandhi was not leading a $54 billion enterprise.”… “It’s not that he’s some wild-eyed populist who wants to burn down every factory,” his brother John said. “I think he has to learn how to delegate more. He’s been used to fighting every fight. … He just has to learn that he can pick and choose the battles that he can win.”
*** UPDATE *** From Bruce Dold at the Chicago Tribune editorial board…
No one at the Tribune has ever tried to influence me or other members of the editorial board.
Mr. Dold insists that this blog post as originally written was somehow “defamatory.” I talked with Ms. Lipinski yesterday, after she told the New York Times that Sam Zell did appear to be attempting to influence her. She called late Thursday, but she did not want to be quoted or paraphrased and made it clear she didn’t want to gin up a new story. She did urge me to update my post. However, I wasn’t exactly sure how to do that without some sort of even deep background statement - for which I didn’t have permission.
However, to keep peace with the big boys, I will say that Ms. Lipinski was insistent yesterday that everybody on the Tribune edit board are honest folks who would never be swayed by the top dog.
I told Mr. Dold that I would print his response, so I did. And if he ever decides to respond to my other questions I will be more than happy post them as soon as I see them.
In Chicago, Ms. Lipinski said, it became clear that Mr. Zell was not above using the newspaper as a tool for his other business interests. In June 2008, Mr. Zell approached her at a meeting, saying that The Chicago Tribune should be harder on Gov. Rod Blagojevich. She reminded him that the newspaper had aggressively investigated the governor and that its editorial page had already called for his resignation.
“Don’t be a p*ssy,” he told her. “You can always be harder on him.”
In a news meeting later the same day, she found out that Mr. Zell was in negotiations to sell Wrigley Field to the state sports authority.
“It was hard to avoid the conclusion that he was trying to use the newspaper to put pressure on Blagojevich.”
You would think that the editorial page would’ve come clean on this little escapade. Lipinksi was one of the saner members of that editorial board and widely respected. She told the New York Times that the Blagojevich episode led to her resignation. There’s been no coverage about why she left until now.
According to the surveillance tapes, Rod Blagojevich was attempting to cut a deal with Zell on Wrigley Field, but he wanted people fired from the edit board. The Tribune subsequently claimed that Zell exerted no influence at all on the board, but Lipinski clearly believes otherwise.
Keep in mind that the Tribune broke the story about Blagojevich being under FBI surveillance the Friday before he was arrested. Blagojevich used the intervening days to try to undo some of his alleged misdeeds. If not for that Tribune story, he might have gone through with it.
Crain’s published a story about the Tribune Company’s reaction, but it didn’t mention the explosive Blagojevich allegations buried deep within the New York Times front-page story.
Zell is no longer running day to day TribCo operations, but he remains the company’s chairman. His most recent contribution was to Bill Brady…
* Ironically enough, the Tribune published a laughable column today by Leonard Pitts…
But I don’t believe in citizen journalism because journalism — like any profession worthy of the name — has standards and ethics, and if you don’t sign on to those, I can no more trust you than I can a doctor who refused the Hippocratic oath or a lawyer who failed the bar exam.
Standards and ethics, eh? Stones. Glass houses. Etc.
